Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #521

The Week That Was: 2022-09-24 (September 24, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “All are sure in their days except the most wise … He is the wisest philosopher who holds his theory with some doubt.” – Michael Faraday

Number of the Week: Three times


By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: The reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) exaggerate the influence of carbon dioxide on earth’s temperatures. This TWTW will address the exaggerations on three levels.

David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) discusses a paper stating that aerosols are declining. Aerosols are a major fudge factor used in IPCC climate modeling. If aerosols are declining, then any increase in surface temperatures may be from an increase in solar radiation hitting the surface, not from an increase in the greenhouse effect.

Richard Lindzen produced a report for the GWPF titled “An Assessment of the Conventional Global Warming Narrative.” It was critiqued by independent researcher Nic Lewis who has a background in inference statistics. The exchange is valuable.

The video of Howard Hayden’s presentation to the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on “Physics the IPCC Ignores – But the climate cannot” is available. A few key points will be discussed.

Dr Javier Vinós of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute and Andy May have wrapped up their presentation of “The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis.” The Hypothesis will be discussed in a subsequent TWTW. However, a quote from Vinós bears special mention: “’On the other hand, I think I can safely say that nobody understands climate change.’ J. Vinós, paraphrasing Richard Feynman’s words about quantum mechanics.”

Melting glaciers have been in the news. Steven Koonin had a good article in the Wall Street Journal on Antarctica and TWTW will fill in more about Greenland and the Arctic.

The former parliamentary under-secretary for Energy, Science and Technology, in New Zealand, Barry Brill gives fifty reasons why government climate policies need critical thinking.

Senator Manchin released details of his “deal” with Senator Schumer. It may benefit his career, but not so much the American consumer.

The Office of Attorney General for the State of New York has filed a civil suit, not criminal charges, against Donald Trump and his family. Attorney Francis Menton states this demonstrates the continuing decline in integrity of the office, a decline found elsewhere.


Hiatus Continued? The reports of the IPCC rely on surface temperature measurements, which are heavily influenced by human activities other than carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. These activities include urbanization, draining of water and wetlands, and deforestation – all of which increase temperatures. Yet climate models are not adjusted to account for these activities and increasing temperatures are blamed on increasing atmospheric CO2. This is one reason TWTW does not respect studies based on increasing surface temperatures. David Whitehouse discusses an article in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physicsthat uses satellite data to show that concentrations of aerosol particles have decreased significantly since 2000.

Since aerosol particles cause cooling (such as the volcanic activity in the early part of the atmospheric temperature trend record), climate modelers have made assumptions about aerosols to explain why the earth is not warming as much as they have forecast. The abstract of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Physicsarticle states:

“Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime of only several days, the aerosol forcing responds quickly to emissions. Here, we present and discuss the evolution of the aerosol forcing since 2000. There are multiple lines of evidence that allow us to robustly conclude that the anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) – both aerosol–radiation interactions (ERFari) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) – has become less negative globally, i.e., the trend in aerosol effective radiative forcing changed sign from negative to positive. Bottom-up inventories show that anthropogenic primary aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions declined in most regions of the world; observations related to aerosol burden show declining trends, in particular of the fine-mode particles that make up most of the anthropogenic aerosols; satellite retrievals of cloud droplet numbers show trends in regions with aerosol declines that are consistent with these in sign, as do observations of top-of-atmosphere radiation. Climate model results, including a revised set that is constrained by observations of the ocean heat content evolution show a consistent sign and magnitude for a positive forcing relative to the year 2000 due to reduced aerosol effects. This reduction leads to an acceleration of the forcing of climate change, i.e., an increase in forcing by 0.1 to 0.3 W m−2, up to 12 % of the total climate forcing in 2019 compared to 1750 according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”

Whitehouse writes:

“The researchers estimate that the weakening of aerosol-induced temperature change between 2000 – 2019 is similar to that estimated by the IPCC’s AR6. Most of this weakening occurred post-2010 coincident with the end of the so-called global warming hiatus period. It suggests that perhaps up to 60% of the global temperature increase since then is down to the reduction of global aerosols. [Boldface added]

“When taken together with a couple of super-strong El Nino events which temporarily drove up global temperature (see graph below), the new findings suggest that the global warming hiatus — clearly evident prior to 2014 — may not have ended yet. If NASA’s satellite data are confirmed, it would suggest that much of the very moderate changes in global temperature this century may have been driven primarily by cleaner air and naturally-occurring El Niños.”

Put more simply: In the 21st century, we are not experiencing the CO2-caused temperature increases forecasted by global climate modelers. The claim of a climate emergency caused by CO2 is an exaggeration. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.


A 3-D Problem With A 1-D Solution? Richard S. Lindzen is Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is noted for solving complex problems, puzzles as he calls them. His comments on the complexity of “climate change” in “An assessment of the conventional global warming narrative” are noteworthy. In the Assessment he states:

“Although the gross inadequacy of our understanding of clouds and other factors is openly acknowledged by the IPCC, concerns over global warming are based on what is essentially the assumption that variations in water vapor, clouds, and so on act to amplify rather than oppose the impact of CO₂; in other words, they are assumed to be positive rather than negative feedbacks. It is on the egregiousness of these assumptions rather than on the greenhouse effect itself, that most sceptics (including myself) have focused.” [Emphasis in original]

General Circulation Models (lately called Global Climate Models) “do especially poorly are presenting the natural internal variability of the atmosphere and the oceans, and almost all of them fail to correctly anticipate changes in the commonly used measure of global temperature. Nor do they simulate past climates adequately.”

The IPCC and its followers have attempted to address the multi-dimensional problem of climate change with a simple solution that is wrong – greenhouse gases. Among other issues they ignore the complexity of convection by two fluids in motion rubbing against irregular surfaces. The abstract states:

“The one-dimensional picture of the greenhouse effect and the role of carbon dioxide in this mechanism dominates current depictions of climate and global warming. We briefly review this picture. We then discuss the shortcomings of this approach in dealing with the three-dimensional climate system. One problem is determining what temperature on the real Earth corresponds to the temperature in the one-dimensional treatment. This, in turn, leads to the traditional recognition that the Earth has, in fact, many climate regimes at present. Moreover, there have been profound changes in the temperature difference between the tropics and polar regions over millennia, but at the same time the temperature of the tropical regions has remained little changed. The popular narrative assumes that small changes in the tropics are amplified at high latitudes. There is no basis for this assumption. Rather, the difference is determined by dynamic heat fluxes in the atmosphere and oceans, with the controlling flux due to baroclinic instability in the atmosphere. Changes in mean temperature are primarily due to changes in the tropic-to-pole difference, and not to changes in the greenhouse effect. The stability of tropical temperatures in the face of strongly varying heat fluxes out from those latitudes points to the existence of strong negative feedbacks in the radiative-convective response of the tropics. Finally, we will comment on the so-called impacts of climate change. [Boldface added]

In a brief non-mathematical presentation, he address issues such as the popular narrative, what is the Earth’s temperature?, what is the Earth’s climate?, what determines the tropics-pole temperature difference?, what produces the stability of the tropical temperature?, where does CO₂ fit in the climate?, and political impacts of the IPCC’s absurdly simplistic approach to climate change. In the section “Where does this leave us?” Lindzen writes:

“This all leaves us with a quasi-religious movement predicated on an absurd ‘scientific’ narrative. The policies invoked on behalf of this movement have led to the US hobbling its energy system (a process that has played a prominent role in causing current inflation), while lifting sanctions for Russia’s Nordstream 2 pipeline, which was designed to bypass the existing pipeline through Ukraine used to supply Germany. It has caused much of the European Union to ban exploitation of shale gas and other sources of fossil fuel, thus leaving it with much higher energy costs, increased energy poverty, and dependence on Russia, thus markedly reducing its ability to oppose Mr Putin’s aggressions.

“Unless we wake up to the absurdity of the motivating narrative, this is likely only to be the beginning of the disasters that will follow from the current irrational demonization of CO₂. Changing course will be far from a simple task. As President Eisenhower noted in his farewell address in 1961:

‘The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.

‘Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.’

“As described in detail in Lindzen (2008, 2012), the US government committed itself to the current narrative by the early 1990s and greatly increased funding as a result. Moreover, given the size of the energy sector, any attempt to rebuild it, however unnecessarily and ineffectively, presents immense opportunities for huge short-term profits – opportunities that are obviously tempting and strongly defended. Atop all of this, has been the constant Goebellian repetition by the media of climate alarm. And this alarm is accompanied by so-called ‘solutions’ that deal with something, namely decarbonisation, that is, in fact, largely irrelevant to climate change, while imposing great and pointless pain. [Boldface added]

“It is essential – to western civilization itself – that the harm associated with this totally unwarranted alarm be ended, however difficult the task.”

Nic Lewis has a thoughtful critique of Lindzen’s work. However, Lindzen responds that Lewis uses a one-dimensional approach in addressing the so-called water vapor feedback. This is a common problem since the 1979 Charney Report which provided the basis for the claims of a warming from a doubling of CO2 found in the six IPCC reports. Lindzen cites the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer, which TWTW thinks addresses the issue of the warming influence from increasing greenhouse gases better than any work based on the IPCC approach. Lindzen concludes his response with:

“My paper represents my assessment of how the climate system actually works. It is the result of almost 60 years of work on the behavior of the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere, and the evolution of my thinking since Lindzen (1993). Of course, like all of science, it is unlikely to represent the final word on the subject. However, I am reasonably confident that the current popular narrative is largely incorrect. The notion that the science is ‘settled’ is pretty implausible in either case.” [Boldface added] See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy


Physics Ignored: In his presentation at the 40th Annual Meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness, AMO physicist Howard Hayden addressed some of the physics the IPCC ignores. Hayden has extended the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer on the greenhouse effect. The presentation is now available on video.

In his presentation Hayden develops the concept of Planetary Heat Balance, which is Outgoing Longwave Radiation (infrared radiation) equal to Incoming Solar Radiation (sunlight) less the reflected portion equilibrium. For all planets, this equation does not change unless sunlight changes or the albedo (the reflectivity) of the planet changes.

Hayden then goes into the well-established Stefan-Boltzmann Law which applies to all black-bodies such as most of the earth’s surface.  The blackbody radiation from the surface is absorbed by greenhouse gases at their own wavelength bands, so the radiation to space is definitely not blackbody radiation. The most important part of the Stefan-Boltzmann Law is the relationship between absolute temperature and total amount of radiation at all wavelengths. (Astronomers regularly use the Stefan-Boltzmann law for stars; gases at thousands of degrees do indeed have a blackbody spectrum for the most part.)

The second most important part of the Stefan-Boltzmann Law is that for a black body, the total amount of emitted radiation for all wavelengths is proportional to the fourth power of absolute temperature (°K). A small increase in surface temperature can have a dramatic effect on radiation from the surface.

The third most important part is that there is a constant, called the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. [Boldface added]

Hayden then combines planetary heat balance, the greenhouse effect, and the Stefan-Boltzmann equation into one equation that must be balanced by all planets at equilibrium with the star they orbit (see his essays on Basic Climate Physics posted on the SEPP website).  He shows how IPCC’s models fail to balance the equation.

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm


Melting “Doomsday” Fears: Writing in the Wall Street Journal, physicist Steven Koonin addresses the so-called Doomsday Glacier in “Don’t Believe the Hype About Antarctica’s Melting Glaciers.” Koonin writes:

“Alarming reports that the Antarctic ice sheet is shrinking misrepresent the science under way to understand a very complex situation. Antarctica has been ice-covered for at least 30 million years. The ice sheet holds about 26.5 million gigatons of water (a gigaton is a billion metric tons, or about 2.2 trillion pounds). If it were to melt completely, sea levels would rise 190 feet. Such a change is many millennia in the future, if it comes at all.

“Much more modest ice loss is normal in Antarctica. Each year, some 2,200 gigatons (or 0.01%) of the ice is discharged in the form of melt and icebergs, while snowfall adds almost the same amount. The difference between the discharge and addition each year is the ice sheet’s annual loss. That figure has been increasing in recent decades, from 40 gigatons a year in the 1980s to 250 gigatons a year in the 2010s.

“But the increase is a small change in a complex and highly variable process. For example, Greenland’s annual loss has fluctuated significantly over the past century. And while the Antarctic losses seem stupendously large, the recent annual losses amount to 0.001% of the total ice and, if they continued at that rate, would raise sea level by only 3 inches over 100 years.”

Koonin then goes into details on two new studies that have been exaggerated in the general press before concluding:

“These two studies illustrate the progress being made in understanding a dauntingly complex mix of ice, ocean, land, and weather, with clever methods to infer past conditions and sophisticated computer modeling to show potential future scenarios. These papers describe the science with appropriate precision and caveats, but it is a shame that the media misrepresents the research to raise alarm. That denies the public the right to make informed decisions about “climate action,” as well as the opportunity to marvel at the science itself.”

A similar problem occurs with the reporting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The reporters appear to be ignorant of Camp Century, which was in use from 1959 to 1967. It was a preliminary facility for the US Army project Iceworm to install a network of intermediate range nuclear missiles capable of hitting the Soviet Union. Camp Century had complete modern bathroom, dining, and medical facilities, all powered by a nuclear reactor. Within a few years, it became evident that the ice was moving, and the camp was abandoned with the nuclear reactor removed.

One solid scientific accomplishment came from the ice core borings which prompted the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) by the European Science Foundation from 1989 to 1995 at the height of the ice sheet. These revealed that abrupt climate change occurred more than 25 times since the last glacial period. Named after palaeoclimatologists Willi Dansgaard and Hans Oeschge, the Dansgaard- Oeschge (DO) events show an abrupt warming followed by a slow cooling roughly every 1,500 years. These are not as clear in ice cores taken in Antarctica and are possibly caused by changes in the North Atlantic Circulation. See Article #1 and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event


Critical Thinking Needed: WUWT posted a list by Barry Brill with fifty reasons why energy policies of developed nations need to be carefully thought out. Among the reasons is that the concept of Net Zero by 2050 is delusional. This list does not go into the absurdity of UN IPCC reports and the one-dimensional thinking they represent. See link under Science, Policy, and Evidence.


The Deal: Senator Joe Manchin release details of his deal with Senator Schumer. According to the analysis by The Wall Street Journal Manchin gets his Mountain Valley Pipeline, but there is not much for consumers and taxpayers. The analysis outlines some of the undesirable characteristic of the “tax increase and climate spending bill” Manchin voted for.

“The President would have to designate 25 energy projects of strategic national importance, but only five must be for fossil fuels or biofuels such as ethanol. Federal agencies would be directed to try to complete environmental reviews on these projects within two years, but nothing compels agencies to meet these deadlines. Projects the President doesn’t favor could languish in regulatory purgatory.

“The bill sets a 150-day statute of limitations on legal challenges to environmental reviews and permits, which is intended to prevent activists from suing to stop projects under construction. Yet nothing limits the scope of legal challenges and who can bring them. The bill makes no substantive changes to the National Environmental Policy Act, Clean Water Act, Clean Air Act, and Endangered Species Act that let opponents delay projects for years.

“Mr. Manchin also comes up short in addressing the problem of states abusing their authority under the Clean Water Act. The bill would give states one year to take action on water permits. But nothing stops Governors from rejecting permits on false environmental pretenses as some habitually do.

“Worse, the bill would expand state discretion to block oil and gas pipelines based on an assessment of a project’s indirect impact on water quality instead of merely discharges into waterways as under current law. States would have a bigger veto on energy projects and federal environmental reviews.

“The bill’s worst provision would give new power to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to override state objections to expanding electric transmission lines. States can now deny permits for interstate transmission lines that won’t benefit their citizens. This can sometimes hurt states that need the energy to balance their grids.

“The bill lets FERC override states and approve transmission lines in the ‘national interest’ if they ‘enhance the ability of facilities that generate or transmit firm or intermittent energy to connect to the electric grid.’ This explicitly ties the national interest to ‘intermittent’ renewable power sources.”

Unreliable electrical power is in the national interest? See Article # 2 and The Political Games Continue.


The Mouse: After years of labor and countless manhours New York’s Attorney General produced a mouse against Donald Trump. It sued Trump over a civil complaint – he overstated the value of personal assets. Francis Menton discusses the downward spiral of the AG’s office for more than 20 years. The office has become highly politicized, losing its reputation for integrity. The same can be said for many other AG offices. For example, immediately after completing his term of office as Governor, Bob McDonnell of Virginia was indicted then convicted of corruption without a clear crime. He was sentenced to prison, but appealed all the way to the Supreme Court, which unanimously overturned the conviction asking where is the crime?

As stated in the Wall Street Journal concerning the Trump complaint:

“Ms. James ran for office promising to indict Mr. Trump, which is the opposite of the way justice should be done. You’re supposed to find a crime and then identify the perpetrator. Ms. James declared Mr. Trump could ‘be indicted for criminal offenses’ and has hunted ever since for a crime to charge him with.

“Her civil lawsuit requires a mere preponderance of evidence standard to prove guilt, not proof beyond a reasonable doubt. She has referred the case to the Internal Revenue Service and federal prosecutors in Manhattan, though the Manhattan district attorney didn’t file charges after examining the same issues.

This isn’t to dismiss the financial fraud charges. The lawsuit says Mr. Trump used ‘objectively false numbers to calculate property values,’ including counting his Trump Tower apartment at 30,000 sq. ft. when it was 10,996 sq. ft. so that it could be improperly valued at $327 million. His golf course in Scotland was valued at $327 million on the calculation that 2,500 homes could be developed (worth $267 million) when he had zoning approval for only 1,500 homes and apartments.”

To which Haapala commented in the electronic version of the article:

“For most of his professional life, Donald Trump was a blowhard real estate developer who exaggerated the value of his properties. Now the NY AG has declared that he committed fraud.

“Many climate ‘experts’ are blowhard ‘scientists’ who exaggerated the influence of carbon dioxide on climate. Where does that place the state and local AGs who have sued oil companies based on blowhard predictions of the influence of carbon dioxide?” See Litigation Issues and Article # 3.


Number of the Week: Three times: The IPCC reports state that the influence of doubling CO2 on temperatures will be 3 °C plus or minus 1.5 °C. The physical evidence is indicating that the influence will be about 1 °C. Thus, IPCC numbers overestimate the influence by 3 times., roughly the same amount as Trump exaggerated the size of his apartment (2.7 times).




Facebook spied on private messages of Americans who questioned 2020 election

By Miranda Devine, New York Post, Sep 14, 2022 [H/t Jo Nova]


Researchers Hit With Lawsuits, Records Requests for Fact-Checking Climate Claims

Researchers say the demands, some from groups with fossil fuel ties, attempt to muzzle their voices.

By Margi Murphy, Bloomberg, Sep 19, 2022


[SEPP Comment: What about groups with green ties?]

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014


Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019


Download with no charge:


Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015


Download with no charge:


Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008


Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

An assessment of the conventional global warming narrative

By Richard Lindzen, Comment by Nic Lewis, GWPF, 2022 [H/t Paul Homewood]


Physics the IPCC Ignores – But the climate cannot

Howard Hayden, PhD speaks at the 40th Annual Meeting of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness, on August 15, 2022., Sep 18, 2022



Global temperature hiatus may not have ended after all, new study suggests

By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Sep 23, 2022

Link to paper; Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing

By Johannes Quaas, et al, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Sep 21, 2022


Press Release: Important new paper challenges IPCC’s claims about climate sensitivity

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 20, 2022

Link to paper: Objectively combining climate sensitivity evidence

By Nicholas Lewis, Climate Dynamics, Sep 19, 2022


The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis (VII). A summary plus Q&A

By Javier Vinós & Andy May, Climate Etc. Sep 22, 2022

About Meridional Cooling and Climate Change

By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 24, 2022

Natural Oceanic Cycles Behind Heavy East Australia Rains, New Study Finds

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 20, 2022

Link to paper: The Impact of Interacting Climate Modes on East Australian Precipitation Moisture Sources

By Chiara Holgate, et al. Journal of Climate, May 15, 2022


Does this explode the great global warming myth?

By Andrew Montford, The Conservative Woman, Sep 21, 2022

“Kininmonth’s suggestion is that the approach of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on a concept of radiation forcing at the top of the atmosphere, is logically unsound and ignores important details about what happens at the Earth’s surface. In particular, he notes that there are huge flows of energy – vastly bigger than the effect of greenhouse gases – from the warm tropical oceans to the atmosphere, whence it is transported poleward by the winds [and oceans], warming the northern latitudes.”

[SEPP Comment: Discussing William Kininmonth’s report on the greenhouse effect in last week’s TWTW.]

Defending the Orthodoxy

‘Polluters must pay’: UN chief calls for windfall tax on fossil fuel companies

António Guterres said money raised should be diverted to vulnerable nations suffering losses caused by climate crisis

By Oliver Milman and Julian Borger, The Guardian, Sep 20, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]


[SEPP Comment: What administration fee does the UN expect?]

Factcheck: Why fracking is not the answer to the UK’s energy crisis

By Multiple Authors, Carbon Brief, Sep 9, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Will not immediately correct 20 years of teenage-thinking energy policy or recover the billions spent on wind and solar dreams.]

How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2022

By Martin Stendel and Ruth Mottram, DMI, Via Carbon Brief, Sep 22, 2022

Link to article: Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week

By Kenneth D. Mankof, et al, Earth System Science Data, Oct 29, 2021


From article: “The map [from GRACE] shows that most of the loss of ice occurs along the edge of the ice sheet, where independent observations also indicate that the ice is thinning. High up in central Greenland, there is a small increase in the mass of the ice. Independent measurements suggest that this is due to a small increase in snowfall.”

[SEPP Comment: Relies on two different datasets: one compiled by Mankof et al., (1987-2022, updated); the second from GRACE satellites (April 2002-2022). No standardization period is presented. The calculations are from April 1, 2002, to August 31, 2021. There is no question there has been net melting in the early part of the record presented, but what is happening now? The article does not address the issue.]

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Climate ‘points of no return’ may be much closer than we thought

By Harry Baker, Live Science, Sep 15, 2022


“The ‘tipping points’ are also more numerous than researchers previously realized.”

Related stories: “Climate change has been altering Earth’s axis for at least 30 years”

“Climate change is making Earth dimmer”

[SEPP Comment: The weight of CO2 in the atmosphere is changing the earth’s axis? How does increasing CO2 decrease ‘earthshine”?]

Views of an Energy Conference in Wyoming

By Kevin Kilty, WUWT, Sep 16, 2022

“The conference included four panel discussions. One each on: nuclear energy, oil and gas production, rare earths and critical minerals, and coal. It was like 1980 again.”

[SEPP Comment: Except now there is too much oil, gas, and coal in the minds of the anti-fossil fuel advocates.]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Seven Theories of Climate change

By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 23, 2022

Go Ahead, Climate Scientists, Make Our Day

By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Sep 21, 2022

“What’s in it? The professors call on their fellow climate researchers to go on strike from climate doomism and also scuttle the plans for a Seventh IPCC Report. This strategy, they imagine, will force Western governments to stop their shilly-shallying about emissions and finally get serious about the Year Zero agenda – not that China, India and Russia would cooperate. As winter looms, Germany and the UK are frantically back-pedalling to fossil fuels, so our Antipodean climate savants must be crying themselves to sleep.”

Most Of The Pacific Ocean’s Volume Has Undergone Intensifying Cooling Since 1993

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 19, 2022

Link to paper: Recent cooling in the lower Pacific Ocean based on dynamically-consistent ocean syntheses

By Liao, F, et al., Preprint


[SEPP Comment: Question the validity of the estimates.]

Running the World into the Ground

By Ed Brodow, American Thinker, Sep 23, 2022


“First, human beings are incapable of controlling the climate, which operates in cycles and always has since the planet was created. Second, our economy is dependent on fossil fuels, and — contrary to the lies fed by the administration — fossil fuel alternatives do not exist, and will not exist in the foreseeable future.”

IPCC Atlas on severe wind storms

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 21, 2022

Climate Change and the Resolutely Blind Eye

By Peter Smith, Quadrant, Sep 20, 2022

Link to paper: A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming

By Gianluca Alimonti, et al, The European Physical Journal Plus, Jan 13, 2022


America Is Successfully Pursuing ESG = Extreme Shortages Guaranteed

By Ronald Stein, Heartland, Sep 22, 2022


In 1969 the FDA commissioner issued a dire warning: The FDA protects the drug companies not the people

By Jo Nova, Here Blog, Sep 20, 2022

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Jayaraj: India, China Emissions Make Mockery of Western Policies

By Vijay Jayaraj, Newsmax, Sep 22, 2022


The Carbon Brief Profile: Russia

By Anastasia Zagoruichyk, Carbon Brief, Sep 22, 2022

“Ahead of the negotiations that finalized the Paris Agreement in 2015, Russia presented a climate pledge (nationally determined contribution, NDC), promising that by 2030, its emissions would be 25-30% lower than levels registered in 1990.

“However, as of 2019, its emissions were already 28% lower than in 1990, due to the economic decline that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992. This means that it can meet its target with minimal emissions reductions.” [Repetitive digits removed.]

[SEPP Comment: What a sacrifice!]

WSJ: US Emissions Cuts Will be “Swamped” by Indian and Chinese Growth

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 23, 2022

World Bank’s Malpass faces calls to resign after climate change doubts

By Valerie Volcovici and Kate Abnett, Reuters, Sep 22, 2022


“World Bank President David Malpass came under heavy criticism on Wednesday after he declined to say whether he accepts the scientific consensus on global warming,,,,”

[SEPP Comment: A consensus of blowhards?]

Seeking a Common Ground

Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine

By P. R. Goode,E. Pallé,A. Shoumko,S. Shoumko,P. Montañes-Rodriguez,S. E. Koonin, Geophysical Research Letters, Aug 29, 2021


A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming

By Gianluca Alimonti, et al., The European Physical Journal Plus, Jan 13, 2022 [H/t WUWT]


An Oil Company Shows Wall Street How to Do ESG

By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Sep 20, 2022


“‘We are a fossil-fueled civilization,’ Smil writes. ‘We cannot simply walk away from this essential determinant of our future in a few decades, never mind years.’ Smil ascribes the delusive belief that society can forsake fossil fuels to a commingling of fact and fiction, making gullible minds susceptible to cult-like visions.”

[SEPP Comment: TWTW greatly admires the work of Smil, but he errs in writing that climate models are important because they correspond with the 1896 calculations of Arrhenius, who later retracted those calculations. Modern measurements show Arrhenius was wrong. That said, Smil’s writings on the complexity of an energy transition are important, the costs of which most political “leaders” fail to realize.]

Climate gains are ‘inconvenient truth’ — it’s not all bad news about the environment

By Bjorn Lomborg, New York Post, Sep 6, 2022


Science, Policy, and Evidence

50 Reasons to Re-Think Climate Policy

By Barry Brill, WUWT, Sep 22, 2022

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?  –  JM Keynes”

Collapse of energy, food, transportation systems prompt calls for government nationalization of industries – Echoes 1930s push for Great Reset style reforms

By Marc Morano, Climate Dept, Sep 21, 2022


There’s No Celebrating the Inflation Reduction Act

By Nate Scherer, Real Clear Energy, Sep 16, 2022


In case you were worried we would miss out

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 21, 2022

“No matter. As long as we keep giving away money we’ll all get rich and have better weather.”

[SEPP Comment: Causation in new economic thinking – Increasing fossil fuel taxes including CO2 taxes causes increasing subsidies?]

Models v. Observations

Compensating Errors in Cloud Radiative and Physical Properties over the Southern Ocean in the CMIP6 Climate Models

By Lijun Zhao, et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Sep 20, 2022 [H/t WUWT]


Full paper: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-022-2036-z.pdf

Measurement Issues — Surface

How Can The Globe Be Warming When Most Of The Southern Hemisphere Isn’t?

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 22, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Cites different studies on land temperatures, sea temperatures in tropical western Pacific and Indian oceans, the Southern Ocean, and Antarctica. The generalization to the Southern Hemisphere is a leap.]

Changing Weather

The Perfect (Smoke) Storm and the Weekend Weather Forecast

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 23, 2022


St. Vincent Destroyed By 1780 And 1898 Hurricanes

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 22, 2022


Major Alaska Storm, Unusual Rain and Low Pressure over Northern California, and Dry Northwest. Are They Connected?

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 18, 2022


Oregon Wildfire Trends

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 17, 2022

Changing Climate

Improving Climate

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 22, 2022


Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Record of Antarctic ice sheet response to climate cycles found in rock samples

The effects of global climate cycles on Southern Ocean temperatures drove cycles of melting and freezing in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet every few thousand years, according to a new study

Press release, University of California, Santa Cruz, Sep 15, 2022 [H/t WUWT]


Link to paper: Subglacial precipitates record Antarctic ice sheet response to late Pleistocene millennial climate cycles

By Gavin Piccione, et al. Nature Communications, Sep 15, 2022


From the abstract: “Our findings imply that oscillating Southern Ocean temperatures drive a dynamic response in the Antarctic ice sheet on millennial timescales, regardless of the background climate state.”

[SEPP Comment: Every 1500 years or so?]

Polar bear no closer to extinction than it was 18 years ago as Arctic sea ice resists ‘tipping point’

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 21, 2022

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Sulfur: A potential resource crisis that could stifle green technology and threaten food security as the world decarbonises

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 20, 2022

“While there are virtually unlimited reserves of sulfur, building mines to access them is another matter.”

Sulfur: A Potential Resource Crisis That Could Stifle Green Technology and Threaten Food Security as The World Decarbonizes

By Mark Maslin, Livia Van Heerde, and Simon Day, The Geographical Journal, Royal Geographical Society, Aug 21, 2022 [H/t WUWT]


From short abstract: “Today over 80% of the global sulfur supply comes from desulfurisation of fossil fuels to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas. Decarbonisation of the global economy to deal with climate change will greatly reduce the production of fossil fuels. This will create a shortfall in the annual supply of sulfuric acid of between 100 and 320 million tonnes by 2040.”

Lowering Standards

1920 – When Scientific American Reported Actual Science

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Sep 22, 2022


No Positive Trends In Extreme Weather Found

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 22, 2022

“It is worth noting that the IPCC reviews continue to make the same point about extreme weather, ie that it is difficult to find any evidence that it is on the increase, regardless of cyclical regional changes.”

[SEPP Comment: But weather was all normal before BBC discovered changes?]

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

“Big Oil vs The World”: BBC Exposé Fails (Episode III)

By Richard W. Fulmer, Master Resource, Sep 21, 2022

“In its Ahab-like focus on harpooning ExxonMobil, the BBC missed an opportunity to explore the enormous challenges involved in replacing fossil fuels. The costs of ignoring those challenges may well be tragically put on display this winter when Europeans face freezing temperatures with nothing but BBC-approved power systems to keep them warm.”

[SEPP Comment: A well-reasoned series with the all-too-common error: that greenhouse gases trap heat (infrared radiation). They delay infrared radiation from the earth’s surface over specific wavelengths (frequencies) allowing other wavelengths (frequencies) to pass through. To understand the greenhouse effect, one must understand the specific wavelengths (frequencies) in which specific greenhouse gases effectively block infrared radiation.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Welcome to Oil U

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 21, 2022

For instance, the story says ‘As one example, [author Paul] Thacker reports how a paper published by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) helped alter American energy policy and kicked off a fracking boom.’”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

The “Stunning Success” Of The Green Revolution Is Yet Another Progressive Myth

By Kristoffer Mousten Hansen, Mises Institute, Sep 17, 2022


Climate change threatens health and survival of urban trees-BBC Junk Science

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 20, 2022

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

Virginia Child Climate Lawsuit Bites the Dust

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 20, 2022

“Greens using children as political props in my opinion is utterly reprehensible.”

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Winning: Antitrust laws slow down the climate plans of $130T monster cartel of UN and global bankers

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 23, 2022

Senate Ratifies Anti-Consumer Kigali Amendment–but with A Silver Lining Regarding China

By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Sep 23, 2022


[SEPP Comment: There is no end to the deception the UN will use to gain power and corporations will use to gain advantage over competitors. How will the UN enforce the ban in China?]

Senate approves climate treaty limiting potent greenhouse gases

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 21, 2022

[SEPP Comment: The effect on temperatures is miniscule, but the costs to the consumer significant.]

UN: Climate Inaction Violates Human Rights

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 23, 2022

“To suggest that Australia’s 1% annual contribution to global CO2 rise has somehow caused the changes to island geography locals are experiencing, which the UNHRC ruled were Australia’s fault, in my opinion is an utter absurdity.”

Non-Green Jobs

Pandemonium: Energy Bills Force Europe’s Factories to Go Dark

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 20, 2022

Funding Issues

UN Secretary General: Climate Catastrophe, War, Poverty, Pandemic, Give Money

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 20, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Send the UN money to stop it?]

They figure you haven’t suffered enough

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 21, 2022

Link to key article: U.S. to spend more than $500 billion on climate over a decade under three laws, study says

By Peter Henderson, Reuters, Aug 25, 2022


“No. That analysis is exactly backwards. If EVs offer these glorious economic opportunities they don’t need massive government support, and if they need it, they’re a money pit. And to know what’s what, you need to get rid of all subsidies and add in all costs.”

[SEPP Comment: Don‘t think critically: “Just hand us your wallet and button your lip.”]

The Political Games Continue

Manchin releases proposed text on permitting reform amid bipartisan skepticism

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 21, 2022

Litigation Issues

A New Low For New York Attorney General Letitia James

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 21, 2022


Big Oil, Exxon Not Guilty as Charged (a rebuttal in six parts)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 22, 2022

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

Adverse Energy Taxes in the Inflation Reduction Act

By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, Sep 20, 2022


Subsidies and Mandates Forever

U.S. to spend more than $500 billion on climate over a decade under three laws, study says

By Peter Henderson, Reuters, Aug 25, 2022


[SEPP Comment: The fastest-growing US power source going nowhere without subsidies and mandates.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

Central African Nations Eye Pipelines and Hubs to End Energy Poverty

By Amindeh Blaise Atabong, US News, Sep 8, 2022


Power Grid Expert: “99.9% Chance” Germany Will See Blackout… “Civil War” Unless People Prepare

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 17, 2022

[SEPP Comment: The consequences may be exaggerated, but too much unreliable electricity generation makes the grid unreliable and costly.]

Govt Lifts Fracking Ban; Ed Miliband Throws A Wobbly! [Former leader of the UK Labor Party and current Shadow Secretary of State for Climate Change and Net Zero]

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 23, 2022

“Miliband’s obsession with wind and solar power is a dangerous illusion, a naive fantasy. It will put our energy security at risk, cost jobs and cripple the UK economy.”

Government must make shale gas development a matter of national security

Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Sep 22, 2022

Energy Issues — US

Failing To Invest In Oil And Gas Would Be The “Road To Hell For America”

By Irina Slav, Oil Pric.com, Sep 22, 2022


The “Inflation Reduction Act” is a 4-step recipe for destroying American energy

By Alex Epstein, Energy Talking Points, Sep 21, 2022


Want to know whether a candidate is truly supportive of American energy? Here’s one simple test: Did they oppose the “Inflation Reduction Act”?

We Must Solve the Real Challenges of Electricity Transmission

By Michael McKenna, Real Clear Energy, Sep 19, 2022


To meet imagined energy transition: “The scale of the challenge is, as has been noted elsewhere, significant.  Estimates range from needing to double the size of our current system to “only” requiring about 60% more transmission than we currently have in the next 35 years.  Under all circumstances, we will, of course, need to replace all or essentially all of our current system as well.”

Tackling Inflation Requires Energy Clarity

By Brigham McCown, Real Clear Energy, Sep 21, 2022


Without States’ Involvement, Permitting Reform Won’t Be as Effective

By Quinn Townsend, Real Clear Energy, Sep 21, 2022


Washington’s Control of Energy

Gulf of Mexico Oil & Gas Lease Sale Update…

By David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 20, 2022

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Alaskan Residents Receive Over $3000 In Oil Dividends

By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, Sep 22, 2022


[SEPP Comment: Will Alaska vote for politicians who will shut down the ALCAN pipeline?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Wind and Solar Make Our Electric Rates Higher

By Frank Lasee, Real Clear Energy, Sep 19, 2022


Dominion hides OSW threat to whales [Offshore Wind}

By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 15, 2022


CVOW Construction and Operations Plan, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, US Dept of Interior, accessed Sep 22, 2022


Wishes and secrets fill Dominion’s offshore wind Plan

By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 21, 2022


CVOW Construction and Operations Plan, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, US Dept of Interior, accessed Sep 22, 2022


[SEPP Comment: Why are plans hidden from the public?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

EU Votes to Keep Burning Forests Because of Climate Change

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 19, 2022

[SEPP Comment: For the EU, clear-cutting forests in North America is fine!]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Phaseout of Oil Cars Show Contempt for Rural America – And for the Developing World

By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Sep 22, 2022


The clean green future where you’re locked indoors due to toxic electrical battery smoke

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 21, 2022

California Dreaming

California seeks to ban sales of diesel commercial trucks effort to fight pollution, climate change

California has also moved to require all new vehicles in the state to run on electricity by 2035, in an effort to phase out gasoline-powered automobiles

By Louis Casiano, Fox Business, Sep 21, 2022


[SEPP Comment:  The California Air Resources Board to consider on Oct 27.]

Other News that May Be of Interest

An Example Of A Real Threat To “Our Democracy” (Or, More Accurately, To Our Constitutional Republic)

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 18, 2022


“…and the Census Bureau issues the “income inequality” statistics that make it seem that the U.S. has extraordinarily high income inequality (by excluding from the calculation most government distributions and all tax collections).”

A ‘New Great Migration’ is bringing Black Americans back to the South

By William H. Frey, Brookings, Sep 12, 2022


Climate change causes spread of brain-eating amoeba

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 22, 2022

Link to article: How the climate crisis is fueling the spread of a brain-eating amoeba

Naegleria fowleri grows in warm fresh water, making it well-suited to proliferate as temperatures rise in the US

By Katharine Gammon, The Guardian, Sep 21, 2022


Link to Health Service press release: DHHS Reports First Suspected Death From Naegleria Fowleri Infection

Press Release, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services, Aug 17, 2022


“In general, the CDC does not recommend testing untreated rivers and lakes for Naegleria fowleri because the ameba is naturally occurring and there is no established relationship between detection or concentration of Naegleria fowleri and risk of infection.”

[SEPP Comment: Is Washington water infected?]

Everybody knows: [insert country here] is warming faster than the global average

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 21, 2022

Manchester To Shut Down in 2027 If Carbon Targets Are To Be Met

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 17, 2022

“Just as with every local council that has gone down the same route, Manchester’s councillors doubtlessly preened themselves when they declared their climate emergency. But they were not prepared to put their (ie taxpayers’) money where their mouth is.”

When in doubt

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 21, 2022

“Still, to a journalist with a crab mallet everything looks like a warming crab.”


1. Don’t Believe the Hype About Antarctica’s Melting Glaciers

Two studies carefully explore the factors at play, but the headlines are only meant to raise alarm.

By Steven Koonin, WSJ, Sept. 19, 2022


TWTW Summary: Key points discussed in the This Week section above.


2. Joe Manchin’s Permitting Bust

The Senator gets the Mountain Valley Pipeline, but not much for everyone else.

By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Sept. 23, 2022


TWTW Summary: Key points discussed in the This Week section above.


3. Letitia James vs. the Trump Family

New York’s AG found her defendants first, then looked for evidence to charge them with something.

By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Sept. 22, 2022


TWTW Summary: Key points discussed in the This Week section above.

via Watts Up With That?


September 26, 2022 at 05:09AM

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