The Future of COPs

Guest Humor by Dr Alan Welch FBIS FRAS — 24 November 2022


Now COP27 is all over, bar the shouting, a few more facts and figures are available to help in predicting the future of this World Jamboree.

Two charts became available on the CarbonBrief site that showed the number of attendees and the Overrun on the final session.  These have now been analysed and the findings shown below.

Total Attendance.

The attendance figures were extracted from the chart below.

Total numbers, up to COP26, were transferred to an Excel spreadsheet and, like any Climate Investigator worth his salt, analysed Quadratic Curve by applying a.

Projecting the quadratic curve to COP27 gives an attendance of just under 30 thousand compared with an actual figure of about 33 thousand.  Not bad!

Projecting to COP100 results in nearly 413 thousand attendees.  I think Greta Thunberg will be attending, at the age of 92, and will give a major speech entitled “Blah Blah Blah …100 times… Blah Blah Blah).  The projection is shown below

The “acceleration” of attendees is 87 attendees/year2.

Final Session Overrun

 Turning to the overrun figures the data up to COP26 is shown below.

Again, the figures were put into a spreadsheet and give


Projecting the Quadratic Curve to COP27 gives an overrun of about 33 hours compared with an actual figure of about 36 hours.  Again, not bad.

The overrun at COP100 is predicted to be 199 hours (1 week, 1 day and 7 hours) and the “acceleration” is 0.025 Hours/year2 (90 seconds/ year2).


The graphs are so similar to Nerem’s Sea Level predictions [ see here and here ] they must be true!!!

The organisers of COP100 must provide 10 times more parking spots for private jets and nearly an infinite supply of strong coffee.

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Comment by Kip Hansen:

Alan Welch has produced a couple of posts analyzing Sea level Rise Acceleration claims [.pdf] coming out of the sea level group headed by R.S. Nerem at the University of Colorado, Boulder.   Links to Dr. Welch’s posts are in the Conclusions above.

For those of you who have a tendency to take things too seriously, please realize that this post is meant as humor.

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via Watts Up With That?

November 23, 2022 at 04:26PM

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