Of course the Met Office doesn’t have ‘forever’ data. The two main factors here seem to be the recovery from the Little Ice Age (not mentioned) and El Niño/La Niña effects, which are admitted to be a, if not the, dominant factor. Human-caused effects are asserted but evidence is lacking.
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2023 is set to be one of the world’s hottest years ever as the temperatures continue to rise, says the Bournemouth Daily Echo.
It comes as the Met Office has predicted that global temperatures will be at least 1C above pre-industrial levels.
They added that in 2023, the global average temperature will be around 1.2C above what they were before humans impacted climate change.
The prediction would make it the 10th year in a row to see global average temperatures reach at least 1C above what they were in pre-industrial times, measured as the period 1850-1900. [Talkshop comment – wrong dates].
Currently, the hottest year on record since 1850 is 2016, a year that saw an “El Niño” climate pattern in the Pacific which pushes up global temperatures on top of global warming trends.
2023 could be one of the hottest years ever, Met Office predicts
Head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, Professor Adam Scaife said: “Without a preceding El Niño to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series.”
The lead of the 2023 global temperature forecast from the Met Office, Dr Nick Dunstone said: “The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Niña – where cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific.
“La Niña has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.”
He also added that next year could see an end to the La Niña state, saying: “For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Niña state, with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.
“This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
December 20, 2022 at 11:49AM