By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness
This pile of fraud comes around every winter:
The data is clear: Rising global temperatures mean winters are getting milder, on average, and the sort of record-setting cold that spanned the country Friday is becoming rarer. But at the same time, global warming may be altering atmospheric patterns and pushing harsh outbreaks of polar air to normally moderate climates, according to scientists who are actively debating the link.
Drastic changes in the Arctic, which is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, are at the center of the discussion. Shifts in Arctic ice and snow cover are triggering atmospheric patterns that allow polar air to spread southward more often, according to recent research.
“We’ve seen the same situation basically the last three years in a row,” said Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts. “Here we go again.”
But understanding any link between planetary warming and extreme cold remains a work in progress. Many climate scientists still emphasize that even if frigid air escapes the Arctic more often, that air will nonetheless become milder over time.
The debate started with a research paper Francis co-authored in 2012. It gets revived whenever an extreme-cold event creates headlines, such as in 2021, when Texas’s energy grid was overwhelmed by a storm that killed 246 people.
Francis’s research hypothesized that Arctic warming was reducing the contrast between polar and tropical temperatures, weakening the jet stream, a band of strong winds in the upper atmosphere that helps guide weather patterns. A weaker jet stream would allow weather systems to more easily swing from the Arctic down into mid-latitude regions that typically have temperate climates.
Jennifer Francis has been peddling this nonsense for years, and has no doubt done very well out of it. But she has never been able to prove that these extreme cold spells are actually becoming more frequent, which is surely the first thing you should do before postulating a theory!
Let’s take the current outbreak of Arctic weather in the US, which is centred on the Upper Mid-West at the moment. According to NOAA, extremely cold winters used to be much more common there. The only one in recent years was in 2013/14:.
Averages of course can hide all sorts of extremes. But NOAA’s US Climate Extremes Index, which is designed to identify and quantify extreme weather, shows a similar picture:
Jennifer Francis’ modus operandi is to wait for the inevitable outbreak of cold weather somewhere in the world, and shout “global warming”! But since there is no evidence that extreme cold outbreaks are becoming more frequent, her theory falls at the first fence.
WORD OF WARNING!
I should point out that all of the above NOAA graphs are not based on actual temperature data, but rather on NOAA’s homogenised estimates. It could therefore be that Jennifer Francis is perfectly correct, in which case NOAA’s temperature trends are fictitious!
Take your pick!
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
December 26, 2022 at 05:06AM