Essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Cam_S; Other than the Covid lockdown dip, there is no evidence of a drop in demand for oil.
Robert Lyman: The ‘truth about oil’ is that the world keeps using more of it
It is time to confront the illusory truth about oil for the sham that it is
Robert Lyman, Special to Financial Post
Published Jan 05, 2023 • Last updated 18 hours ago • 2 minute read
What psychologists refer to as “illusory truth” is the tendency people have to believe anything, no matter how false, so long as they hear it repeated often enough. Proponents of climate alarm endlessly repeat that the world is using less and less oil and that this trend is relentless and inevitable. As their logic goes, reducing and eventually ending oil production is merely facilitating a trend that is happening anyway. But that “truth” is completely illusory.
The 2022 edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy provides data on global demand for crude oil. According to the review, between 2002 and 2019, total world demand rose by 19.5 million barrels per day, from 78.3 million to 97.7 million. The annual average increase from 2009 to 2019 was over one million barrels per day per year. This is the fastest absolute growth in oil demand over a comparable period ever.
The data for 2022 are not yet available, but reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicate that global oil demand has resumed its pre-pandemic trend of large annual increases. That’s not surprising, given the experience of 2009-10. As the chart shows, consumption fell sharply following the financial crisis but then after about two years was back on essentially the same growth path as before.
Interestingly there does seem to be a lot of pent up demand for electric vehicles, if only they were cheaper, had more range, and were easier to recharge.
Interest in EVs has grown substantially, survey shows
Still, initial cost and concerns around range and charging logistics are holding back many potential buyers.
Published July 8, 2022
U.S. consumer interest in electric vehicles is growing rapidly, according to findings from a Consumer Reports survey released Thursday. This year, 14% of consumers said they would definitely buy or lease an electric-only vehicle if they were to get one today, compared with just 4% in the organization’s 2020 survey.
“What surprised me about the results of the survey is how many Americans really express interest in buying or leasing an EV,” said Mary Greene, senior policy counsel for CR’s sustainability policy team. Greene attributed the change primarily to two factors: the high cost of gas, and people “who are concerned about the impacts on the environment” who are aware that EVs may lessen that impact.
Overall, 71% of respondents in the nationally representative survey of 8,027 U.S. consumers expressed some level of interest in buying or leasing an EV. But just 9% described themselves as “very familiar” with the fundamentals of owning an EV. According to the survey, the top concerns holding consumers back from buying an electric vehicle are charging logistics, how far they can drive before needing to recharge, and the costs associated with buying and maintaining an EV.
Even if the price comes down and chargers are built, there is a big issue with electricity availability. The generators and power lines created for households which use 5-20KWh per day are going to faceplant, if lots of people start plugging in EVs, and demand jumps overnight to 60-100KWh per day per household.
This risk of overload is not helped by the fact many of the greenest nations and states also have the biggest capacity issues, unreliable electricity grids. California recently had to ask EV owners to avoid charging during peak electricity use times, after their green energy heavy grid buckled during a heatwave.
via Watts Up With That?
January 7, 2023 at 01:02AM