How Those Rainfall Projections Turned Out

By Paul Homewood

A final look at how those UKCP09 climate projections worked out, with a look at rainfall:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/adapting-to-climate-change-uk-climate-projections-2009

According to the “experts” at the Met Office, summer rainfall was forecast to decline sharply, down by 17 to 23% by the 2080s. Even by now, for instance, rainfall in the SW should already be 7% down.

It turns out that the clowns could not even get the sign right! Average summer rainfall is actually 10% higher then the 1961-90 baseline, and it is also at a similar level to the mid 20thC, showing little signs of a long tern decline.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/seasonal/HadEWP_seasonal_totals.txt

They also forecast large increases in winter rainfall of over 20% in much of England and Wales.

At least they managed to get the sign right this time, as winter rainfall has increased very slightly, up by 6%. But there is little indication of this increase being sustained, and current long term averages are barely higher than they were in the early 20thC: