England was projected to be between 3 and 4C warmer on average by the 2080s, in comparison with 1961-90.
The actual trend so far is much less dramatic:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_seasonal_totals.txt
The current 30-year average is only 0.72C higher than 1961-90; but more significantly, it is just 0.40C higher than 1931-60.
Given this knowledge it is not credible to postulate that average temperatures will rise by another 3C or more in the next 60 years, particularly since temperatures in the hottest of summers do not appear to be increasing.
Even if every summer in the 2080s was as hot as last year, the long term average would still only be 2C higher than 1961-90.
Yet UKCP09 is still used as the basis for climate projections, and similar nonsense numbers are coming out of the most recent set of projections in UKCP18.
Read the whole article here: UKCP Summer Temperature Projections Are Not Supported By The Data | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT (wordpress.com)
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February 10, 2023 at 03:29AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 