Cat 4 Hurricane Trends

By Paul Homewood

Are Category 4 and 5 hurricanes becoming more frequent?

The only long term dataset we have is for US landfalling hurricanes, which dates back to 1851. Some of the earlier data is still uncertain, but the record is reasonably reliable since around 1880.

Below is a chart of the number of hurricanes which made landfall at Cat 4 or 5:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

The evidence is clear. Whilst the last few years have been busy as far as these hurricanes are concerned, similar numbers occurred in the 1940s and 50s. We also need to view recent hurricane activity in the light of the complete absence of Cat 4 and 5s between 2004 and 2017.

The 30-year average gives a much more complete overall view, and this too confirms that these strongest hurricanes are not becoming more common.

It is also worth considering the ACE data. This again makes it clear that hurricanes worldwide have not become more powerful during the satellite era.