Warming could raise UK flood damage bill by 20%, Say Make-Believe Computer Simulations

By Paul Homewood

h/t Paul Kolk

The usual scaremongering from the BBC:

Researchers have produced a detailed "future flood map" of Britain – simulating the impact of flooding as climate change takes its toll.

It has revealed that annual damage caused by flooding could increase by more than a fifth in today’s terms over the next century.

That could be reduced if pledges to reduce global carbon emissions are met.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64866058

Meanwhile back in the real world, real flood experts have analysed historical flood trends, and found that the percentage of the population at risk has actually declined since 1870 in Britain:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04253-1

The same study concludes that normalised economic losses have fallen sharply since the 1950s across Europe as a whole, as has the number of people affected in England:

And a 2014 study by Stevens et al found no long term trends in flooding in the UK, once allowance was made for new house build on flood plains; indeed there has been a marked decline in the incidence of the most severe floods: