Essay by Eric Worrall

Last month the MET explained how global warming causes more intense dry periods. But University of Bristol now informs us extreme downpours will happen more often.

Intense downpours in the UK will increase due to climate change – new study

Published: March 8, 2023 3.58am AEDT
Elizabeth Kendon
Professor of Climate Science, University of Bristol

In July 2021, Kew in London experienced a month’s rain in just three hours. Across the city, tube lines were suspended and stations closed as London experienced its wettest day in decades and flash floods broke out. Just under two weeks later, it happened again: intense downpours led to widespread disruption, including the flooding of two London hospitals. 

Colleagues and I have created a new set of 100-year climate projections to more accurately assess the likelihood of heavy rain downpours like these over the coming years and decades. The short answer is climate change means these extreme downpours will happen more often in the UK – and be even more intense.

To generate these projections, we used the Met Office operational weather forecast model, but run on long climate timescales. This provided very detailed climate projections – for every 2.2km grid box over the UK, for every hour, for 100 years from 1981 to 2080. These are much more detailed than traditional climate projections and needed to be run as a series of 20-year simulations that were then stitched together. Even on the Met Office supercomputer, these still took about six months to run.

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Read more: https://theconversation.com/intense-downpours-in-the-uk-will-increase-due-to-climate-change-new-study-200385

Earlier this year the climate prophecy was a little different;

Climate change, drought and water security

Posted on 2 February, 2023 by Met Office Press Office

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Climate change and increasing heat drought events 

In November 2022, the WMO published its first State of Global Water Resources report which assessed the effects of climate, environmental and societal change on water resources. At the time, WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas said, “The impacts of climate change are often felt through water – more intense and frequent droughts, more extreme flooding, more erratic seasonal rainfall and accelerated melting of glaciers – with cascading effects on economies, ecosystems and all aspects of our daily lives. And yet, there is insufficient understanding of changes in the distribution, quantity, and quality of freshwater resources.” 

As the climate continues to change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, we are seeing increasingly hot, dry conditions in the UK and globally. 2022 has recently been confirmed as the hottest year on record for the UK with an annual average temperature of over 10°C, and this trend is projected to continue in the future. July 2022 saw the driest month since 1935 for England as a whole, and the driest on record for East Anglia, southeast and southern England, with the UK seeing just 56% of its average rainfall for the month. As a result, drought was declared by the Environment Agency in many parts of the UK in August 2022. 

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Read more: https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2023/02/02/climate-change-drought-and-water-security/

Don’t forget folks, settled science. Let us hope for Britain’s sake, the global warming caused more frequent intense rainfall cancels out the global warming driven increase in hot, dry conditions.