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The article summary is shown below. See this link for expanded discussion and evidence. No punches pulled here. In short, the evidence doesn’t stack up, so the author – an expert in his own right – calls the IPCC’s cyclone claims ‘fiction’.
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A top conclusion of the recent Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that the attribution of observed changes in tropical cyclones to human influence has strengthened over the past 9 years.
The IPCC does not justify its claim that both the detection of changes and attribution have been achieved, says Roger Pielke Jr.
So in Part 1 of this exploration, I tracked back the claim and found that it had no support in the one paper miscited by the IPCC in support of the claim.
In this second part, I look at official data on tropical cyclones. The evidence also does not support the IPCC claim of detection and attribution related to tropical cyclones.
Thus, a false claim about tropical cyclones made its way into the IPCC Synthesis Report and its Summary for Policy Makers.
In an ideal world, a blunder of this magnitude would prompt some thinking about how the IPCC performs its scientific assessments, whether it may have drifted from that mission, and if it can do better.
. . .
[RP’s summary]
So where does all this leave us? Well, here is a cherry-picker’s guide to the proportion of major hurricanes:
–Want to show an increase? Start your analysis in 1980.
–Want to show no trends? Start your analysis in 1950.
–Want to show a decrease? Start your analysis in 2002.
More seriously, what does the scientific community conclude when a climate time series does not indicate trends outside the bounds of observed variability?
Detection has not been achieved.
That means there is no trend to attribute. Neither detection nor attribution has been achieved.
The IPCC AR6 failed spectacularly on tropical cyclones in concluding that both detection and attribution have not only been achieved related to an increasing proportion of major hurricanes but that such conclusions have strengthened since 2014.
This is all fiction, misinformation even. Yes, I know these are strong words. The IPCC is far too important to allow errors of this magnitude.
Source here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
April 4, 2023 at 08:26AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 