Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Excessive rainfall amounts over the next ten days or so will be centered over the state of Texas with a special focus in the Rio Grande border region between Texas and Mexico. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
The central third of the nation will be the part of the country with the most rainfall in coming days and also the highest likelihood for severe weather. An area of focus for the rainfall will be the state of Texas with a big concern for excessive amounts in the Texas/Mexico Rio Grande border region. Severe weather including isolated tornadoes is a threat on Thursday from Kansas-to-Oklahoma and to the east of there across Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi. Severe weather will remain as a threat in the same (central) part of the nation in coming days as well.
Severe weather threat exists Thursday/Thursday night across portions of the central US and the same part of the nation will be a threat zone on Friday and Saturday as well. Maps courtesy NOAA/Storm Prediction Center
The rain can be excessive over the next five-to-ten days across the Lone Star State of Texas with a specific focus likely over the Rio Grande border region between Texas and Mexico. Multiple rounds of rain in coming days could easily produce 6-12 inch amounts leading to potential flooding issues along the Rio Grande. One of the culprits of the active weather pattern over the central states will be the persistence of upper-level lows in the region from Baja California to central Mexico and this will contribute to the atmospheric instability over places like the Texas/Mexico Rio Grande border region. While the rain will be most intense across Texas in coming days, it will also be quite heavy across the eastern sections of the Rocky Mountain States and the western Plains. In fact, there can be flooding issues later Thursday and Thursday night across eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming and the northeastern part of Colorado…accumulating snow is also on the scene in some of the highest mountains of the Colorado Rockies where skiing will be quite good for many weeks to come.
In addition to a continuing influx of colder-than-normal air masses into the central US, another ingredient leading to unstable weather conditions in the foreseeable future will be persistent upper-level low across the region from Baja California to central Mexico. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Another ingredient to the very unsettled weather pattern in the central US will be the continuing influx of colder-than-normal air masses. These colder-than-normal air masses will clash with entranced warm, humid air across the Lower Mississippi Valley leading to an “atmospheric battle zone” region. This ingredient along with dry air at the surface (i.e., dry line) and strong upper-level jet streaks will likely lead to severe weather including tornadoes later Thursday and Thursday night with the main area of concern being “tornado alley” from Kansas-to-Oklahoma and a bit farther to the east of there from Louisiana and Arkansas into Mississippi. The greatest severe weather threat over the next couple of days will stay pretty much in the same parts of the country (i.e., the central US/Mississippi Valley).
An influx of colder-than-normal into the central US next week-to-ten days will generate a “battle ground” region as a “clash” develops between the colder, drier air to the west and the entrenched warm, humid air to the east. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
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via Watts Up With That?
May 12, 2023 at 12:13PM