Month: May 2023

Guardian / YouGOV – European Support for Real Climate Action is Weak

Essay by Eric Worrall

Lots of people support climate action – but that support wanes dramatically when the proposed actions are personally inconvenient, like giving up your automobile.

Many Europeans want climate action – but less so if it changes their lifestyle, shows poll

Exclusive: YouGov survey in seven countries tested backing for government and individual action on crisis

Jon Henley Europe correspondent @jonhenley
Tue 2 May 2023 15.00 AEST

Many Europeans are alarmed by the climate crisis and would willingly take personal steps and back government policies to help combat it, a survey suggests – but the more a measure would change their lifestyle, the less they support it.

Measures entailing no great lifestyle sacrifice were popular, with between 45% (Germany) and 72% (Spain) backing government tree-planting programmes and 60% (Spain) and 77% (UK) saying they would grow more plants themselves or were doing so already.\

Even more radical proposals, such as voluntarily eating no more meat and dairy and having fewer children than you would like, were supported by between barely 10% (Germany) and 19% (Italy), and 9% (Germany) and 17% (Italy) respectively.

Changes in car use, a major contributor to carbon emissions and an area in which many European governments are already legislating, also drew responses that showed a close correlation to the impact they might have on people’s lives.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/02/many-europeans-want-climate-action-but-less-so-if-it-changes-their-lifestyle-shows-poll

What a surprise – not. Personally I blame greens for this dissonance between people’s expectations and what greens think is required to save us from the carbon demon.

How many times have greens told people that renewables are cheaper than fossil fuel? That businesses can save money by going green?

So why all this talk of personal sacrifice and lifestyle changes? If green is easier and cheaper, why should anyone need to make any sacrifices?

You can’t have it both ways greens. Either green is cheaper and better, which eliminates the need for significant personal sacrifice, or someone has been telling a few fibs.

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May 2, 2023 at 04:46PM

Revealed: Trees planted to help achieve net zero are adding to Scotland’s carbon emissions

Sitka spruce forestry in Scotland

Another avoidable green fiasco in the name of climate obsession.
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Millions of pounds are being spent carpeting thousands of acres of land with conifers on the basis they will lock up CO2 from the atmosphere.

But a new report shows that many of the forests springing up around the country likely add to the risk of climate change, says the Sunday Post.

Vast tracts of peaty soil are being dug up and drained in order to plant trees, unleashing a torrent of stored carbon [dioxide] into the environment.

The paper – published in the ­journal Land Use Policy – states: “We have been planting the wrong type of forests, in the wrong place, and using the wrong techniques. The industry promotes conifer forests as carbon positive; yet many plantations are emitting carbon.”

The author, Castle Douglas-based silviculture ­consultant Mary-Ann Smyt, warns: “Most of Scotland’s forestry has been (and is still being) planted on organic, peaty soils. The problem is acute in south-west Scotland, where afforested headwaters contain high levels of organic carbon and lethal spikes of acidity.

“If we want woodlands to lock up carbon for centuries, we need to move away from draining and disturbing peaty soils to suit plantations.”

The John Muir Trust conservation charity backed the research’s findings. Senior policy officer Rosie Simpson said: “We’re not confident about the long-term carbon savings of commercial plantations on peatlands.

“In the 1980s, we saw ­plantations in the Flow Country (in Caithness and Sutherland) driven by tax incentives. They are now widely acknowledged as having been ­environmentally destructive and are being converted back to peatland habitats.

“Our concern now is that we might be repeating past mistakes – except this time the driver is carbon-offsetting rather than tax-saving.”
. . .
The latest report highlights research from last year that showed trees grown in 30cm of peat would be unlikely to recoup the emissions created. Meanwhile, trees grown in 20cm of peat might take 15 years to break even.

And the report says the rules neither prevent further damage to existing sites caused by restocking nor properly account for emissions from ditches.

It concludes: “The net effect of plantations on peaty soils is that many forests are emitting more greenhouse gases than they sequester; they are not carbon-beneficial.

“This paper asks that investors and policy-makers recognise the damage being done…and suggests that the incentives driving these changes are corrected in order to favour a better kind of forest.”

The Scottish Conservatives called for a review of subsidies.

Shadow Net Zero Secretary Liam Kerr said: “The Scottish Government routinely attempts to force through so-called environmental measures without listening to the experts, from the shambolic Deposit Return Scheme to controversial fishing bans. We cannot afford tree-planting to become another failed green objective.”

Last year, an Aberdeen University study found that building wind turbines on peatland had released 4.9 million tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It will take some windfarms more than a decade of producing electricity to make good on the damage they have caused.

Full article here.

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May 2, 2023 at 01:54PM

Jo Nova talks to Mark Steyn about Volcanoes and free speech

By Jo Nova

My appearance with the wonderful Mark Steyn Tuesday is playing at SteynOnline, or on the Australian ADH TV.

Mark was tickled with the idea from my article last week: The science is settled but we just found 19,000 new volcanoes.  He also wanted to talk about The crime of talking to Tucker Carlson and the Red-pilling of Naomi Wolf.  We discussed other major science surprises like the mass phytoplankton blooms that seed clouds. That was another rule breaking surprise just two months ago — that moment when researchers realized that all the toluene and benzene pollution over the Southern Ocean was actually not caused by humans at all, but by phytoplankton all along.

We discussed the odd coincidence of how all the places that are warming in Antarctica seem to lie over the top of a 91 volcanoes we only discovered a few years ago.  As I said, we know the surface of the moon better than we know the depths of the ocean. Only three men have visited the Mariana Trench and it’s only 11 kilometers from the surface of Earth, but 12 men have walked on the moon.

It was a lot of fun. — Bear in mind that it was 3pm for Mark and 3am for me. We really are on opposite sides of the world.

What if a volcano blows up underwater, and nobody hears it…?

Doing research for this I wondered if we would know if a volcano erupted under a kilometer of water. The answer, it turns out, is often “Not”.  If they don’t trigger a seismic wave, the best we can do is look for floating rafts of pumice, and discoloured water containing bits of silicon, iron and aluminium oxides. Yes, it’s that bad. Volcano’s might be going off on Earth and we wouldn’t know.

Indeed, after Hunga Tonga surprised everyone — people started to wonder if there might be other volcanic surprises lying in wait on the sea floor. How would we know? We haven’t a clue. A lot of the time we don’t even know after they have erupted — let alone before. People might think there would be a heat signature on the surface of the ocean, but that only works for shallow volcanoes that are already putting out hot lava. With the average ocean four kilometers deep and up to 11 kilometers deep a 3 or 4 kilometer mountain can appear and we likely won’t even notice.

It’s rarely acknowledged, however, that most volcanic activity on Earth occurs beneath the sea. Submarine volcanoes are pretty much ubiquitous in all of the world’s major oceans and it’s estimated that 75% of the Earth’s magma output comes from mid-ocean ridges.

To make things trickier, many known submarine volcanoes are found far from land, and being underwater prevents scientists from observing any changes by conventional means. So how do we monitor them?

Can you imagine what it would cost to install seismic detectors all around the Pacific Rim or along the Atlantic Ridge?

Scientists have managed to install equipment that detects tell-tale tremors on the sea bed before. This research has helped reveal the seismic precursors of a submarine eruption – the signs that one is imminent – similar to what scientists had already documented in volcanoes on land. Installing this equipment does not come cheap though, and it’s not possible to do it everywhere.

An impending eruption can be detected in subtle temperature increases on the volcanic surface. For submarine volcanoes, these are harder to spot. The heat signatures of submarine volcanoes will only ever be visible at the sea surface if a volcano is in shallow water and already erupting hot lava. At that point, it’s too late to warn anybody.

Drive your nuclear submarine carefully.

A note from Mark for Australian fans:

Today’s edition of The Mark Steyn Show can now be viewed on ADH TV Down Under. The show will be posted every day, Tuesday to Friday, at 5pm Australian Eastern

 

 

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May 2, 2023 at 01:34PM

CfD Indexation Is A Rip Off

By Paul Homewood

image

We have been looking at indexation of CfD strike prices. So let’s look at an example of how it works in practice.

Beatrice is an offshore wind farm off the Scottish coast. It has been operational since 2019.

Their first three years of full accounts show:

image

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/SC350248/filing-history

Profits increased by £53 million between 2021 and 2022, despite lower output, on the back of higher revenue, mainly due to indexation of 8.1% on strike prices.

Finance costs fell as debt began to be repaid. Most of the debt is spread over 15 years, on floating interest rates. As with most businesses with large capital expenditures, Beatrice has covered all of its long term debt with interest rate swaps, meaning the interest rate it pays is fixed for the full maturity of the loans.

image

The only real risk to the business profitability therefore is the actual output of the wind farm.

In the y/e March 2023, Beatrice received another uplift in strike prices of 8.1%, and a further 6.1% was added last month. Together these will increase revenue by another £55 million, assuming output remains the same.

It was grossly negligent and a misuse of public money for Ed Davey to have drawn up contracts guaranteeing full indexation of strike prices. I know of no private business which would have offered such generous terms.

It is plainly evident that his only concern was to get as many wind farms built as he could, regardless of the cost to the public.

It has been suggested that offshore wind farms simply would not have been viable without such generous terms. If so, it gives the lie to the claim that wind power is as cheap as advertised.

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May 2, 2023 at 12:52PM