Month: May 2023

Daily News 16 May 2023

Roger Pielke Jr: The political agenda of the IPCC

By Paul Homewood

Scientific assessment or environmental advocacy group? Pick one
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established as a scientific assessment process more than 35 years ago. Scientific assessments are of critical importance in many areas to help policy makers and the public to identify what is known, what is uncertain, as well as where there is contestation, uncertainties and areas of fundamental ignorance. Such assessments can also help us to understand policy options and expectations for how different choices might lead to different outcomes.
Regular readers of The Honest Broker will know that I have taken issue with the recent IPCC Sixth Assessment (AR6) based on an unacceptable number of errors and omissions in my areas of expertise, as well as its over-reliance on the most extreme climate scenarios. Today I take a look at the IPCC’s self-described political agenda and argue that the institution finds itself at a fork in the road.
Before proceeding, I want to be clear about what I mean when I talk about “the IPCC.” In one sense there is really no such thing as “the IPCC.” The organization’s assessment process includes many hundreds of people who do their work across three Working Groups to produce many dozens of chapters covering a wide range of topics. The Working Groups are largely independent of each other and even chapters within the same Working Group can be written largely independently of other chapters.
In another sense there is indeed such a thing as the IPCC — Specifically, its leadership and most engaged participants. These core participants represent a kind of climate in-group with a shared sense of purpose and an overarching commitment to a shared political agenda. For some people, their entire career is centered on the IPCC. These core participants do have a shared political agenda which can be seen in varying degrees within the reports.
So what is the political agenda of the IPCC in-group?
Transformational change
When the IPCC released its Synthesis Report in March, it announced:
"Taking the right action now could result in the transformational change essential for a sustainable, equitable world."
It would be easy to write this sentence off as containing consultant-like and empty buzzwords. But the notion of “transformational change” has been widely employed in the academic literature on climate and the IPCC clearly defines what it means by “transformational change.”
In its AR6 Working Group 3 report the IPCC explains that transformation involves more than simply transitioning from one type of technology to another (emphasis added):
"While transitions involve ‘processes that shift development pathways and reorient energy, transport, urban and other subsystems’ (Loorbach et al. 2017) (Chapter 16), transformation is the resulting ‘fundamental reorganisation of large-scale socio-economic systems’ (Hölscher et al. 2018). Such a fundamental reorganisation often requires dynamic multi-stage transition processes that change everything from public policies and prevailing technologies to individual lifestyles, and social norms to governance arrangements and institutions of political economy"
Transformational change means that everything changes.
What are examples of these sorts of changes? The IPCC identifies “the potential for virtuous cycles of individual level and wider social changes that ultimately benefit the climate.”
The IPCC continues (emphasis added):
"The starting point for this virtuous circle are inner transitions. Inner transitions occur within individuals, organisations and even larger jurisdictions that alter beliefs and actions involving climate change (Woiwode et al. 2021). An inner transition within an individual (see e.g., Parodi and Tamm 2018) typically involves a person gaining a deepening sense of peace and a willingness to help others, as well as protecting the climate and the planet . . ."
What are examples of such “inner transitions”? The IPCC explains:
"Examples have also been seen in relation to a similar set of inner transitions to individuals, organisations and societies, which involve embracing post-development, degrowth, or non-material values that challenge carbon-intensive lifestyles and development models . . ."
The IPCC discusses the importance of “degrowth” to its vision of transformation in its AR6 Working Group 2 report.
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May 16, 2023 at 11:49AM

Daily News 16 May 2023

Germany’s Federal Network Agency Plans To Ration Electricity As Electric Power Crisis Heightens

The greatest energy folly of all time… Germany restricts electricity supply while ramping up demand! Rationing unavoidable

Nowadays it seems Germany is doing everything possible to warp-speed ruin itself.

If today’s German leaders were driving a car and wanted to go faster, they would ease off the gas pedal and slam on the brakes – and hope it works! That’s basically how they’re handling the country’s energy crisis. Some would understandably equate it all to lunacy.

Soon this may be what Germans with heat pumps and electric cars are going to be seeing next winter.

Going electric while shutting down power plants

While leaders demand citizens quickly switch over to electric mobility and heat pump systems, thus placing ever huger demands on the power grid, they are reacting by shutting off nuclear and fossil fuel power plants, thus making electricity even more scarce than it already is.

Rationing becoming unavoidable

As Germany’s energy shortages intensify, it’s no surprise that rationing is becoming only way out. And so the Federal Network Agency now proposes that grid operators be allowed to ration electricity in the future to avoid possible overloads caused by charging e-cars and heat pumps. This how grid overloads are to be avoided in the future.

Nightmare for companies

Companies planning to set up shop in Germany may want to think again if they plan on using electricity. Firstly prices have soared and are among the highest in the world, and secondly: don’t expect the supply to be reliable as brownouts are now in the plans.

Even worse for private citizens

For private consumers, it gets even worse. According to the plan, beginning already in 2024, grid operators are to be empowered “to temporarily restrict electricity purchases from private charging stations and heat pumps to avoid peak loads,” reports Blackout News.

Have blankets ready

“If it is proven that the grid could be overloaded, the distribution grid operator has the right to reduce the power,” said Klaus Müller, head of the Federal Network Agency in an interview with BR24. In other words, if it’s January and -10°C outside, your heat pump may be remotely switched off. Have blankets ready.

Power grid totally inadequate

Another problem is the lack of power grid upgrades that are necessary to handle the huge extra demand for power that heat pumps and electric cars will create. The result: severe supply bottlenecks and overloads. Again, the only measure available for the challenge will be rationing.

Lower electric rates for those who have to freeze

“In order to avoid delays in the connection of heat pumps and charging stations, an additional control option by the distribution grid operator is necessary, reports Blackout News. “In the end, a corresponding control means nothing other than a rationing of electricity purchases. As compensation for the affected consumers, it is envisaged that they will receive a reduction in their grid fees.”

Criticism mounts (finally)

A number of industry associations have widely criticized the “unilateral and unlimited throttling” of the power supply and warn this would mean “considerable restrictions for consumers and thus also limit consumer acceptance of heat pumps and electric cars”.

Unless Germany radically changes course in its energy policy, citizens who heat their homes with heat pumps and travel with electric cars may find themselves often stranded in unheated homes in the wintertime.

Greatest energy folly of all time?

No one could have imagined a folly of this scale less than 2 years ago, just before the current Socialist-Green government took over the reins of power at the end of 2021. Other countries may want to avoid the idiotic German path.

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May 16, 2023 at 11:40AM

Daily News 16 May 2023

Media Ignore Delhi’s Coldest May Since 1901

By Vijay Jayaraj

On May 4, India’s capital of New Delhi recorded the third coldest May morning since 1901. At 16 degree Celsius (60 Fahrenheit), the region’s 32 million residents woke up to a relatively cold morning in what is usually the hottest month of the year.

So why is there a record low temperature when the dominant mainstream narrative tells us that climate change has made our environs warmer than before? Is this just an aberration?

While Western media obsessed with the warm weather in Spain, India’s capital recorded a very cold summer morning. In fact, most of the cold-weather records in Delhi have gone unreported in Western media, which are mainly interested in showcasing the city’s extreme summer temperatures.

Neatly concealed from the public’s eye are the record low winter temperatures that Delhi has been witnessing since 2017. In December 2018, Delhi recorded an average minimum temperature of 7°C (44°F), the third lowest in the last 50 years. On December 30, 2019, the maximum temperature settled at 9°C (49°F), making it the coldest December day in 122 years.

As is the case globally, winter cold in Delhi is a bigger killer than summer heat. According to studies, short-term exposure to extreme temperature accounts for 6.5 percent of all deaths in India, with 88 percent of that amount caused by cold weather and only 12 percent by hot weather.

This is an example of media bias towards advancing a narrative of apocalyptic warming when reporting weather events. Also, part of this slanted reporting is the media’s failure to acknowledge the real reason behind the recording of all-time high summer temperatures: the urban heat island (UHI).

Urban Heat Island, Not Climate, Sets Records

During my stint as a climate consultant in New Delhi, I lived close to the Safdarjung temperature-measurement station. As per the Indian Meteorological Department, the highest maximum temperature ever recorded at Safdarjung was 47°C (117°F) on May 29, 1944.

This high temperature recorded nearly 80 years ago for this station has yet to be toppled by the 21^st century warming that supposedly threatens us with doom, and the reason is probably the station’s location.

Unlike the other temperature monitoring stations in Delhi, the Safdarjung station is in a relatively greener section of the city. Thus, it is less susceptible to the Urban Heat Island effect, and, therefore, has not been registering the insanely high temperatures of 49°C (120°F) witnessed in and around Delhi.

Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of Skymet Weather Services, says, “Safdarjung weather station is located in a fairly green area, as compared to the rest of Delhi, which has a lot of heavily concretised spaces without much green cover. Temperatures in these parts of the city will therefore, understandably, be higher.”

So, the reason thermometers record new all-time highs in Delhi is because of urbanization’s concrete structures and pavements and other landscape changes. Weather officials also note that some of the newer automatic weather instruments used in highly urbanized areas may be prone to error.

“Most observatories in Delhi have automatic systems, which have a scope for error because they use bimetals, which can contract and expand during different weather conditions,” says an official of the India Meteorological Department in the Hindustan Times. He added that abnormal temperature spikes of the error-prone stations should be compared to the readings of older stations like Safdarjung to obtain “a more precise idea of the temperature.”

It takes just a bit of common sense to understand the artificial urban heat island impact on thermometers in cities and airports. However, preconceived notions of catastrophic warming pose serious hurdles to grasping this reality.

Delhi’s case illustrates that warming is not a continuous and unprecedented phenomenon as some claim it to be. Instead, we see at play a chaotic climate system at work with unpredictable weather patterns. Additionally, we must be mindful of the urban heat island impact when reading news bulletins about record-high summer temperatures.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds a master’s degree in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia, UK and resides in India.

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May 16, 2023 at 09:08AM