If it’s climate obsession versus reality in US power supplies, there can only be one winner. Strong opposition to new gas pipelines plus increasing reliance on intermittent renewables can only end badly for consumers of power.
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As much as two-thirds of the United States could experience blackouts in peak winter weather this and next year, the North American Reliability Corp has warned.
These warnings have become something of a routine for the regulatory agency lately, says OilPrice.com.
Earlier this year, NERC issued a blackout warning for some parts of the U.S. over the summer, citing extreme temperatures.
This latest warning also has to do with extreme temperatures. Yet it’s not just the temperatures themselves that are the problem. It’s the power generation mix that is making the grid more vulnerable.
In its latest assessment, NERC cited recent data showing that up to a fifth of generating capacity could be forced offline in case of a cold snap over areas that do not normally get this kind of weather.
The regulator points to the lack of gas transport infrastructure as one of the main challenges for the U.S. grid this winter as it compromises the security of generating fuel supply. The report also notes historical evidence that extreme winter weather can also affect the production of natural gas and, as a result, reinforce the effect of weather on power supply security.
It is not just natural gas that is problematic, however. The massive buildout of wind and solar capacity has also had an impact on electricity supply reliability and could turn into a problem during the winter.
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It appears that NERC is warning that the weather is becoming more unpredictable, and this is problematic for grid security. Although nowhere in the report is the phrase “climate change” mentioned, it is implied that the changing climate is creating uncertainty in weather forecasts and, as a result, a reduced capability for generators to respond to sudden changes in demand, for instance, or severe weather.
The other thing that is stated indirectly rather than directly is the effect of more wind and solar on grid reliability. Although NERC admits intermittent wind and solar electricity output is problematic by definition, it stops short of spelling out something that another regulatory agency, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said bluntly earlier this year.
“One nameplate megawatt of wind or solar is simply not equal to one nameplate megawatt of gas, coal or nuclear,” FERC commissioner Mark C. Christie told Congress in June, during a hearing in front of the Subcommittee on Energy, Climate and Grid Security.
Christie explained that it is not wind and solar themselves that are problematic but rather the rate at which baseload-providing, dispatchable electricity generation capacity was being retired to be replaced with non-dispatchable wind and solar farms.
Dispatchable capacity is the kind that provides electricity 24/7 or on demand, such as coal, gas, and nuclear. Wind and solar, on the other hand, only generate electricity when the weather allows it.
At that June hearing, Christie and another FERC commissioner, James P. Danly, said the challenging state of affairs was the result of subsidies for wind and solar, which had distorted the market and compromised grid reliability.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
November 13, 2023 at 03:21AM
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