From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin

After vote in Brussels last Monday evening, a majority of the European Parliament favored a Commission proposal that would no longer automatically classify electric cars as climate-neutral vehicles.

In the proposal, the CO2 emissions of electric cars would depend on the electricity mix used to charge the car, meaning electric cars would not necessarily be classified as “electric only”.

The EU plans to reassess the phase-out of combustion engines, based on the latest data and developments.

So what has brought on this sudden episode of political sobriety in Brussels? Probably a good dose of reality. Here are 4 possible reasons behind the EU’s new position:

1. China

The automotive industry and many EU states warn of the economic and social consequences of a ban on combustion engines.

Electric car production in Europe cannot compete with the far lower costs in China. Europe’s car production would move overseas, and thus result hundreds of thousands of lost jobs –  and lots of social unrest.

Currently Europe is already gripped by social unrest as farmers and truckers protest in the streets against radical green policies.

2. E-car emissions cheating

Currently, electric cars in the EU are given a CO2 emission rating of zero grams! This zero emissions claim is a lie in most cases as the calculation doesn’t take true electricity generation mix into account. Fossil fuels are still widely used in Europe to produce the electric power.

A true accounting would include the CO2 emissions of the electricity used to charge electric cars and make them look less attractive.

3. Climate-neutral fuels (e-fuels):

Efforts are being made to run combustion engines on climate-neutral fuels (e-fuels), which are produced from renewable energies and are thus CO2-neutral.

The EU Commission wants to examine whether newly registered vehicles with combustion engines that run on e-fuels can be registered from 2035. This would effectively suspend the ban on combustion engines, as e-fuels can be used emissions-free in practice.

4. The 2024 European Parliament election

It is scheduled to be held on 6 to 9 June 2024. So now is not the time to upset voters with unpopular legislation. The Brussels bureaucrats probably just want citizens to think they are being pragmatic and will not take a radical course after all.

In summary, the EU may be realizing that banning internal combustion engines, and replacing them with e-cars, is going to cause a lot more damage than good.

From Polar Bear Science

Susan Crockford

Over the last 10 years, Hudson Bay polar bears have morphed from being the “most at risk” across the Arctic to the “least at risk.” Who would have thought?

That’s probably because the experts now have to admit that polar bear numbers have not declined since 2004 and bears have been in good body condition since at least 2016. Southern Hudson Bay bears have apparently increased in number since 2016. How ironic is it that the photo above, taken in Hudson Bay — the only Arctic region where trees grow — was used to illustrate a recent Mother Jones article promoting a new prediction of future Arctic summer sea ice loss that’s said to pose a threat to polar bear survival.

Here is a brief retrospective of predictions for survival of Western Hudson Bay polar bears (based on predictions of future sea ice loss), my emphasis throughout:

2013

In 2013, Andrew Derocher told The Guardian (27 November):

“All indications are that this population could collapse in the space of a year or two if conditions got bad enough,” said Andrew Derocher, a polar bear scientist at the University of Alberta.

“In 2020, I think it is still an open bet that we are going to have polar bears in western Hudson Bay.”

Contrary to this prediction, sea ice conditions over Western Hudson Bay haven’t changed since about 1998: most years, the ice-free season has been about 3 weeks longer than it was in the 1980s. Summer sea ice conditions are not getting worse.

2016

In 2016, seal biologist Steve Ferguson told the Winnipeg Free Press (6 December):

Hudson Bay could experience its first ice-free winter within five to 10 years, Ferguson said.

“I don’t think polar bears and seals will be able to adapt. I think they’ll just die out in places like Hudson Bay. There’s little to stop the trend in loss of sea ice, even if we stop producing greenhouse gasses,” he said.

Contrary to this dire prediction, Hudson Bay has been no where near to ice-free in winter, see the sea ice development chart below showing ice thickness for the week of 4 March 2024:

2024

Steven Amstrup told the Winnipeg Free Press in 2024 (28 February) the following about Western Hudson Bay polar bears, seemingly in direct contradiction to a paper he co-authored last year:

Even so, the population seems to be faring better than the rest of the world, Amstrup said during his presentation.

“If there’s a likelihood of being able to save bears anywhere, it’s probably in (the) Hudson Bay,” he said.

The rate of decline in sea ice is lower in the western and southern portions of the Hudson Bay than anywhere else globally, Amstrup relayed.

This prediction seems like a clear admission that previous predictions were wrong. This means that any of the models that formerly used WH bears as a proxy to predict the survival of all other subpopulations, including the one published last year, are not worth the paper they were printed on. What a surprise!