Fortune Magazine February 1974 “Climatologists now blame those recurring droughts and floods on a global cooling trend. It could bring massive tragedies for mankind. The changes, which are charted on the facing page, began with a pronounced warming trend after … Continue reading →
via Real Climate Science
March 16, 2024 at 11:24AM
Arctic Ice Roaring Back in Max Month of March
The animation shows growing Arctic ice extents over the last two weeks. Of course central Arctic basins are frozen solid, and the additions are visible on both the Atlantic side (right) and the Pacific (left).
The graph below shows March daily ice extents for 2024 compared to 18 year averages, and some years of note.
The black line shows during March on average Arctic ice extents nearly reach 15 Wadhams (15M km2) on Day 62, March 2. A slow decline is normal until Day 75, March 15. However, that period in 2024 saw Arctic ice increase 430k km2, nearly half a Wadham. Note also that this year ice extents rose above 15M already in February, and now in March ice has been well above that threshold for the last week. 2006 was the first year in this dataset and on Day 75 was 734k km2 less than yesterday. As usual in transitional months like March and September SII (Sea Ice Index) shows a similar pattern with generally lower extents.
Why is this important? All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels. The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post UAH January 2024: Ocean Warm, Land Cooling.
The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also. See USCS Warnings of Coastal Flooding
Also, a longer term perspective is informative:
The table below shows the distribution of Sea Ice on day 75 across the Arctic Regions, on average, this year and 2006.
| Region | 2024075 | Day 75 Ave | 2024-Ave. | 2006076 | 2024-2006 |
| (0) Northern_Hemisphere | 15124987 | 14895040 | 229947 | 14390903 | 734084 |
| (1) Beaufort_Sea | 1070983 | 1070317 | 667 | 1069711 | 1273 |
| (2) Chukchi_Sea | 966006 | 965891 | 115 | 964227 | 1779 |
| (3) East_Siberian_Sea | 1087137 | 1087110 | 27 | 1086702 | 435 |
| (4) Laptev_Sea | 897845 | 897837 | 8 | 897773 | 71 |
| (5) Kara_Sea | 935023 | 920555 | 14469 | 930477 | 4547 |
| (6) Barents_Sea | 671826 | 643180 | 28646 | 619435 | 52392 |
| (7) Greenland_Sea | 771468 | 621747 | 149721 | 617177 | 154291 |
| (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence | 1336897 | 1529678 | -192781 | 1135409 | 201487 |
| (9) Canadian_Archipelago | 854860 | 853214 | 1646 | 852715 | 2145 |
| (10) Hudson_Bay | 1260903 | 1258048 | 2855 | 1254086 | 6817 |
| (11) Central_Arctic | 3243865 | 3222218 | 21647 | 3245403 | -1538 |
| (12) Bering_Sea | 723227 | 735481 | -12254 | 645634 | 77593 |
| (13) Baltic_Sea | 78741 | 80321 | -1580 | 172540 | -93798 |
| (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk | 1215262 | 990338 | 224924 | 845955 | 369307 |
The overall surplus to average is 230k km2, (2%). The only major deficit is in Baffin Bay, more than offset by surpluses in Okhotsk and Greenland seas. Everywhere else is maxed out.
Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.
via Science Matters
March 16, 2024 at 11:00AM
Is ‘speed of change’ a problem? Climate models make predictions, but the reality is quite often something else. Solar activity including flares has been high in the last year or so, but this is often ignored. CO2 theory struggles with anomalies.
– – –
Record temperatures in 2024 on land and at sea have prompted scientists to question whether these anomalies are in line with predicted global heating patterns or if they represent a concerning acceleration of climate breakdown, says The Guardian.
Heat above the oceans remains persistently, freakishly high, despite a weakening of El Niño, which has been one of the major drivers of record global temperatures over the past year.
Scientists are divided about the extraordinary temperatures of marine air.
Some stress that current trends are within climate model projections of how the world will warm as a result of human burning of fossil fuels and forests. [Talkshop comment – ignoring the Sun as usual].
Others are perplexed and worried by the speed of change because the seas are the Earth’s great heat moderator and absorb more than 90% of anthropogenic warming. [Talkshop comment – of any kind of warming?].
Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organization announced that El Niño, a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean, had peaked and there was an 80% chance of it fading completely between April and June, although its knock-on effects would continue.
. . .
Carlos Nobre, one of Brazil’s most influential climatologists, said no climate model accurately predicted how high sea surface temperatures would reach during the past 12 months. Given the continued heat over the sea, he said 2024 was likely to be another unusually hot year for the world as a whole.
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
March 16, 2024 at 10:01AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 