Ten bogus media climate claims and more from May 2024 debunked here.
via JunkScience.com
June 8, 2024 at 04:41AM
Month: June 2024
By Paul Homewood
.
Will net zero upend our lifestyles? Will we fly less, turn down our thermostats, become vegans?
The British public are already feeling the effects – from the push to buy EVs and install heat pumps, to Ulez, low-traffic neighbourhoods and the endless restrictions on plastics.
Although the UK became the first country to halve emissions over the last 50 years, many insist we must go further, faster to tackle the “climate breakdown”.
Consider a new Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) report on transport emissions. The think tank has created 12 profiles that describe the ways people travel now and the “opportunities” for different groups as we hurtle towards net zero. These include “flying less”, “more public transport” and a “shift to an electric vehicle”.
Those in the “car reliant” group, who overwhelmingly have children and are 10 times more likely to use a personal vehicle than travel by public transport or walk/cycle, are encouraged to use social leasing schemes and car clubs if they cannot afford an EV.
In other words, decades of rising car ownership, with all the freedom and independence it has brought, could come to an abrupt end.
Rishi Sunak may have insisted that net zero won’t be “forced” on us, but the legally binding Carbon Budget proposed by the Climate Change Committee estimates that around 10pc of our emissions saving by 2035 will come from “changes that reduce demand for carbon-intensive activity. Particularly… an accelerated shift in diets away from meat and dairy products…[and] slower growth in flights and reductions in travel demand”.
And soon, a Labour government – led by a self-professed “socialist” – may be in charge. Wars and pandemics aside, no policy has ever handed the Left a better excuse to meddle, spend taxpayer money, control, subsidise and pick winners than net zero.
Yes, Sir Keir Starmer has abandoned his £28 billion a year “green prosperity” pledge, but the party is putting plans for a state-led energy company – one that will, apparently, bring down both emissions and bills – front and centre of its campaign.
Shadow climate secretary Ed Miliband claims renewables are cheaper and more secure, though even the Tony Blair Institute thinks this is nonsense. The IFS is now warning that Labour’s clean energy drive won’t boost growth sufficiently to bring down debt.
For the first time, our society is trying to progress by embracing less efficient and productive technology. Heat pumps operate with lower power output than their gas-fired equivalents, meaning that they typically generate heat more slowly and at a lower level. The costs of EVs are mounting – last week it was reported that the extra weight of EV batteries means tyres are wearing out after less than 10,000 miles, a lower figure than for petrol equivalents – as demand slumps.
But perhaps the greatest fallacy is that net zero can be achieved “fairly”. Eco-warriors may relish in the thought of the entire nation regressing to a pre-industrial time, but the reality will be very different.
As the detrimental effects of decarbonisation on poorer households, who are less able to invest in new technologies or change their behaviour, become more stark, pressure to spread the misery more equally will increase. This week, one of the architects of the Paris Agreement insisted rich individuals in all countries must pay more to tackle the climate crisis, whether through taxes or charges on consumption.
Central to the IPPR’s research was the finding that the highest earning 1pc emit at least seven times more from their transport than average earners.
In response, politicians will reach for lazy, ill-conceived solutions. Targeted, economically irrational bans on activities enjoyed by the super wealthy – which will likely have a negligible impact on emissions – will be imposed.
Debate is already underway over a frequent flyer levy, with some suggesting it should exclusively be imposed on those travelling First and Business class – but this will just be the start. Helicopters or private jets, as Extinction Rebellion are already demanding, could be banned.
Restrictions on heating home swimming pools, or on the number of cars we can own, may be brought in. Or garage taxes. Or mandatory solar panels on large houses and higher VAT on luxury goods. Or higher excise duties on champagne.
Slowly and wearily we will adapt, just as we have to paper straws and congestion charges. But even then, it won’t be enough for the green zealots. As the economist Stephen Davies has written, there is no alternative to fossil fuels for a range of economically vital activities – such as steelmaking – and building the extra electricity-generating capacity will mean mining more copper than we have done in history until this point.
To make the windmills and solar panels we will need massive use of fossil fuels. When the limits of what is achievable become more apparent, will Labour retreat or double down?
Few would challenge the need to decarbonise, but our current approach will be needlessly costly and disruptive – however much politicians may try to downplay it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/rich-will-soon-pay-heavy-price-for-net-zero/
Actually many already do challenge “the need to decarbonise”, and many more will do so when they find out the impact it will have on their lives.
But I can make one prediction – the ultra rich will continue to live their luxury lifestyles just as they do now, even if they do have to pay frequent flyer taxes.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
June 8, 2024 at 04:30AM
By Paul Homewood
Hardly surprising!
.
If the polls are correct, Labour will be in government in less than a month from now, yet the party’s policies are already having an impact on business.
Three oil and gas companies – Jersey Oil and Gas, Serica Energy and Neo Energy – said on Wednesday they had decided to delay by a year the planned start of oil production at Buchan, an oilfield in the North Sea 120 miles to the north-east of Aberdeen, which they jointly own.
The trio explicitly linked the decision to the earlier than expected timing of the election.
ersey Oil and Gas, speaking on behalf of itself and its joint venture partners, told shareholders: "While activities continue in order for the Buchan project to be ready for field development plan approval by the end of this year, the exact timing for achieving this key milestone and enabling project sanction is naturally linked to securing fiscal clarity from the next government and ensuring that the project remains financially attractive."
That was a reference to Labour‘s energy policies.
The industry body Offshore Energies UK has suggested Labour’s plans could result in the loss of 42,000 jobs among North Sea oil and gas producers.
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-energy-policies-already-impacting-north-sea-business-13148786
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
June 8, 2024 at 04:17AM
Bill Ponton, Princeton Venture Advisory
There is a pervasive belief among green policy adherents that wind power saved the UK hundreds of millions during the natural gas crisis brought on by the disruption of gas flow to Europe from Russia. During a 15-month period, Oct 2021- Dec 2022, natural gas prices reached levels not seen during the prior 20-year period or in the subsequent years of 2023 -2024. If there were savings, then there should be a way to quantify it. Moreover, there should also be a way to quantify the savings or cost incurred from the use of wind power outside this window of interest. In the following article, I will describe a model for costing wind generation, gas generation and wind and gas generation together. From this model, I will determine the savings or cost that wind power incurred inside and outside the period in question.
In 2023, the UK had wind power capacity of 30 GW with onshore and offshore capacity of 15 GW each. The onshore capacity generated 38TWh, while the offshore capacity generated 53 TWh, for total wind generation of 91 TWh. The onshore and offshore capacity factors were 29% and 40%, respectively, with an overall capacity factor of 35%.
Wind power can not work in isolation but must be paired with natural gas-powered turbines. Gas turbine power capacity of which the UK has 32 GW must be available at a moment’s notice to ramp up and compensate for vacillations in wind power. The cost of operating and maintaining (O&M) gas turbine generation is not diminished with the advent of wind power. It is more expensive to operate as it must recoup capital, operating, and maintenance costs across a smaller window of power generation time as wind substitutes for gas turbine power. For this reason, it is best to conceive of wind and gas as working in tandem. In 2023, gas turbine generation was 99 TWh. Together, wind and gas generated 190 TWh.
The EIA estimate of offshore and onshore capital costs are 6,041 USD/kW and 1,718 USD/kW, respectively. Its estimate of offshore and onshore O&M costs is 115 USD/kW-yr and 27 USD/kW-yr, respectively. Assuming a useful project life of 20 years and a weighted average capital cost (WACC) of 6%, the yearly finance payment and O&M cost for offshore and onshore are 9.7 Billion USD/yr and 2.7 Billion USD/yr, respectively, for a total of 12.3 Billion USD/yr. That makes offshore and onshore wind energy cost 0.184 USD/kWh and 0.070 USD/kWh, respectively, or 0.135 USD/kWh combined. In terms of GBP/MWh, that would be 144 GBP/MWh for offshore, 55 GBP/MWh for onshore and 106 GBP/MWh combined.
The EIA estimate of gas turbine capital cost is 1201 USD/kW. Its estimate of O&M cost is 15USD/kW-yr. Assuming a useful project life of 20 years and a weighted average capital cost (WACC) of 6%, the yearly finance payment and O&M cost for gas turbine 3.9 billion USD/yr. Furthermore, assuming thermal efficiency of 60% and using the 25-year historical gas price average of 5 USD/mmBTU, the yearly fuel payment for 99TWh of gas generation is 3.2 billion USD/yr. The total yearly payment including capital finance, O&M and fuel is 7 billion USD/yr. That makes natural gas energy cost 0.071 USD/kWh. In terms of GBP/MWh, that would be 56 GBP/MWh. For comparison, without wind power, natural gas would need to generate 190 TWh. The yearly fuel payment would be 6.1 billion USD/yr. The total yearly payment including capital finance, O&M and fuel is 10 billion USD/yr. The natural gas energy cost is then 0.052 USD/kWh, or 41 GBP/MWh.
Together, natural gas and wind energy cost 0.102 USD/kWh or 80 GBP/MWh. The cost difference between natural gas and wind working in tandem versus natural gas working solo is 39 GBP/MWh. Energy from wind and gas combined is twice as expensive as gas alone. However, that inference is predicated on use of 25-year historical gas price average of 5 USD/mmBTU for fuel cost. As repeatedly pointed out by green advocates, natural gas price departed from the historic average from Oct 2021- Dec 2022. (see Fig 1)
Figure 1
The question is how much this departure from the historic norm impacted the relative cost of wind and gas working in tandem versus gas by itself. In order to answer it, I graphed wind power savings, defined as the difference in cost between wind and natural gas combined and natural gas alone, based on the price of natural gas in the UK at each period extending back five years to 2019. It shows that wind provided negative savings to the UK until the natural gas price spiked over the period Oct 2021- Dec 2022 where it provided positive savings, then it reverted to negative savings from Jan 2023 to present. (see Fig 2)
Figure 2
Even more revealing is the graph of cumulative wind power savings. It shows a steady decline in savings so that over the period from Jun 2019 – Sep 2021, wind power cost the UK cumulatively 18 billion GPB over gas power. From Oct 2021- Dec 2022, it recovered about 8 billion, but since then it has declined back to a cumulative loss of 18 billion GBP over the five-year period. (see Fig 3)
Figure 3
In a sense, wind power advocates are correct in saying that wind saved the UK billions during the gas crisis of 2022, but it was only within that narrow window of time that wind has provided the UK with any savings.
via Watts Up With That?
June 8, 2024 at 04:03AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 