Earlier this week the news broke that the United Kingdom has dropped out of the top ten manufacturing nations in the world, for the first time since records began. Indeed, given that the UK is the birthplace of the industrial revolution, it’s possibly the first time that it hasn’t been in the top ten for a quarter of a millennium. The decline has been rapid and dramatic – from 8^th in 2021, to 12^th place in 2022 (presumably we will have to wait another year for the 2023 figures). The top ten manufacturing countries are listed here. The list isn’t very surprising. In order, the countries are:

China

The World Population Review (WPR) website has to be treated with some caution, though the rankings seem straightforward. The caveat I apply is that it lists China in first place with a 31.63% share of global manufacturing, but then goes on to cite the US Statistics Division, which puts it at 28.4%.

Those statistics (whichever are correct) relate to 2022. Meanwhile, so far as concerns the sources of China’s electricity in 2023, we learn that “[c]oal still accounted for nearly 60% of China’s electricity supply in 2023, indicating that record-high solar and wind capacity growths were yet to lead to a ramp up in power production, government-backed industrial association China Electricity Council (CEC) said in a report published Jan. 31.[2024].”

United States

The table supplied by the WPR website suggests that the USA is responsible for 15.87% of world manufacturing, but then in the body of the article says it’s roughly 16.6%. Either way, it’s in a solid second place, and a long way behind China (despite being top of the table as recently as 2010).

Curiously, however, fossil fuels in 2023 accounted for 60% of electricity generation in the USA. 43.1% was provided by natural gas, and coal made up a chunky 16.2% Solar and wind, at a combined 14.1%, supplied less electricity than did coal. So much for President Biden’s “green” revolution.

Japan

The table on the WPR website puts Japan’s share of world manufacturing at 6.52%, but the narrative below the table says 7.2%. Either way, it’s a firm third place. Interestingly:

In 2023, Japan’s electricity consumption continues to be heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with more than half of its electricity generated from fossil sources. Gas contributes approximately 32% to the electricity mix, while coal makes up about 30%.

Germany

In fourth place is Germany, with 4.78% of global manufacturing (as per the WPR table) or approximately 5.8% (according to the text).

Germany is the first country in the rankings to have (in 2023) more than 50% of its electricity supplied by renewable sources. However, even so, it is still heavily dependent on some of the world’s most polluting (in all senses of the word – not just in terms of releasing CO2) fossil fuels:

However, the country is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels for domestic power production. In 2023, some 25 percent of gross electricity was generated using lignite and hard coal, considered the most polluting of energy sources. Natural gas contributed another 15.5 percent.

India

The WPR table puts India in fifth place, with South Korea in sixth, though the numbers cited in the text might suggest that the rankings should be reversed. According to the WPR table, India is responsible for 2.87% of global manufacturing, but for 3.3% according to the text.

According to Statista:

In 2023, fossil fuels accounted for the largest installed electricity generation capacity in the country, at approximately 2.4 terawatts. By comparison, clean energy (including hydropower and nuclear energy) had a power capacity of roughly 180 gigawatts.

It’s fair to say, then, that in 2023 India was almost completely dependent on fossil fuels.

South Korea

According to the WPR table, South Korea is responsible for 2.71% of global manufacturing, but according to the text, it’s 3.3%. Interestingly:

South Korea relied on fossil fuels for 62% of its electricity in 2023, ranking as the G20’s second-highest emitter per capita.

Russia

According to the WPR table, Russia is responsible for 1.8% of global manufacturing. Ember advises us that 64% of Russian electricity was generated by fossil fuels in 2023, making it the world’s fourth largest power sector emitter. While other mature OECD economies saw power generation emissions peaking in 2007, declining by 28% since then, Russia’s have increased slightly.

Italy

Italy sits in 8^th place, with 1.8% of global manufacturing. According to Ember :

Italy relied on fossil fuels for 56% of its electricity in 2023…Italy’s largest source of clean electricity is hydro (14%).

Mexico

As per the WPR table, Mexico sits in 9^th place, with 1.69% of global manufacturing. It has been moving up the rankings. However:

Fossil fuels generated 270.5 terawatt hours (Twh) of Mexico’s electricity in 2023, compared with around 260 TWh in 2022 according to Ember. Natural gas was the main pillar of Mexico’s electricity generation system, accounting for around 57% of total electricity output last year.

Greater fossil fuel use also meant Mexico’s power emissions increased by 11% last year to more than 175 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2), and the highest in over five years.

The reversal in momentum for clean electricity generation is a concern for climate trackers, as Mexico is North America’s fastest-growing economy, driven in large part by an expanding manufacturing base geared toward serving consumers in the United States.

France

France sits in tenth place, responsible for 1.65% of global manufacturing.

It relies heavily on nuclear power generation, which is now recovering following outages for maintenance etc. Although they rose to new record levels, solar and wind still supplied less than 15% of France’s electricity in 2023.

Manufacturing trends:

The Macrotrends website provides very useful data for the five years (inclusive) from 2018 to 2022 regarding manufacturing output by country, valued in US dollars. This shows the value of China’s manufacturing increasing by around 20% over the period, cementing its first place position, while that of the UK (which has just dropped out the top ten) remained broadly static. As global manufacturing increases, along with global wealth, the UK seems to be stagnating.

Japan and Germany both registered declines, while Mexico’s manufacturing production increased in value by almost 20%. South Korea and Italy declined slightly, while Russia grew substantially (though the sanctions might have started to bite in 2023 – or they might not, given that Russia seems very successfully to be evading their intended effects). France declined slightly, while countries coming up behind in the table and pushing for admission to the top ten, such as Indonesia and Turkey grew strongly, while Brazil also showed some growth.

Trends in greenhouse gas emissions

Sadly, the excellent EDGAR database doesn’t seem to have been updated recently, but it’s still useful to see the direction of travel with regard to the greenhouse gas emissions of major manufacturing countries. With UN climate treaties using 1990 as a baseline, we can see how things have changed between 1990 and 2019. In China’s case, emissions have more than quadrupled, while those of the USA increased slightly, but demonstrating decline since 2005 and particularly since 2010 (the year when it lost first place in the table to China).

Japan’s emissions also peaked in 2005, with very modest declines since then. Since 1990 Germany’s emissions have declined steadily, by around 30% between 1990 and 2019. Russia’s economy declined massively following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and 2000 represent its emissions low point, since when they have been growing. India’s emissions more than quadrupled between 1990 and 2019. South Korea’s emissions increased by around 150% between 1990 and 2018, since when a minor decline has been registered. Indonesia’s emissions have almost quadrupled between 1990 and 2019. As we all know, the UK’s emissions have declined by a greater proportion than those of any other major manufacturing country. France’s emissions peaked in 2005 and have declined since then. Mexico’s emissions grew by well over 50% between 1990 and 2019.

Conclusion

As we constantly remind ourselves here at Cliscep, correlation isn’t necessarily the same as causation. However, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck. The most successful manufacturing countries are almost exclusively those with most fossil fuels involved in generating their electricity – probably because they are also the countries with the cheapest electricity. The other stand-out statistic is the decline in the position in the global manufacturing rankings of countries which are doing most to “decarbonise” their economies.

Thus, it’s very difficult to avoid the conclusion that countries doing that are simply exporting emissions and manufacturing capability to those countries that don’t share their qualms about the “climate crisis”. Maximising manufacturing potential and therefore a nation’s wealth seems to be inextricably linked to cheap energy, which in turn – whatever the pundits tell us – seems to be inextricably linked to continuing use of fossil fuels and only small-scale use of renewables.

I doubt it’s what Paul Simon had in mind when he wrote these lyrics, but they sum up the situation nicely for those developed countries who are seeking to “decarbonise” their economies at the expense of their manufacturing base:

Slip slidin’ away
Slip slidin’ away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you’re slip slidin’ away