Scientists: 100% Of 2000-2023 Warming Explained By Solar Forcing…Human Climate Forcing ‘Does Not Exist In Reality’

“Our analysis revealed that the observed decrease of planetary albedo along with reported variations of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) explain 100% of the global warming trend and 83% of the GSAT interannual variability as documented by six satellite- and ground-based monitoring systems over the past 24 years.” – Nikolov and Zeller, 2024

A new, observation-based study makes extensive use of satellite data (CERES) to quantify the driving mechanism behind the global surface air temperature (GSAT) warming throughout the first 24 years of the 21st century.

Instead of agreeing with the prevailing narrative, the authors reject the hypothesis that accumulated “heat trapping” from rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in recent decades is the driver of global warming. Instead, satellite observations clearly indicate “100% of the global warming trend and 83% of the GSAT interannual variability” is explained by the increasing trend in absorbed shortwave radiation due to the downward trend in planetary primarily induced by changes in cloud cover.

“According to CERES observations, the Earth’s all-sky albedo has declined by approximately 0.79% since 2000 causing an increase of planetary shortwave radiation absorption of ≈2.7 W/m².”

Image Source: Nikolov and Zeller, 2024

The authors point out that the prevailing narrative that says increases in downwelling longwave radiation from GHGs drive warming in the top 100 meters of the ocean is rooted in assumption. The proposed-but-never-observed (using GHGs as the causal variable) mechanism involves a hypothetical “thermal skin layer” temperature-gradient explanation for how GHG-induced water-warming might possibly work (see Wong and Minnett, 2018). In reality, thermal radiation penetrates less than one-thousandth of a meter and “cannot directly warm the deep ocean.”.

In contrast, satellite-observed increases in absorbed solar radiation – which penetrates 100 m and indeed directly warms the ocean water – explains not only the 0-100 m ocean-warming trend since 2000, but also 80% of the interannual temperature variability.

“CERES data do not support the hypothesis that the observed EEI [Earth’s Energy Imbalance] is a result of heat trapping by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Instead, these data indicate that the Earth system has gained energy through an increased absorption of solar radiation…”

“Our analysis of the CERES EBAF 4.2 shortwave fluxes showed that the observed surface and subsurface ocean warming since 2000 (including the 2023 extreme heat anomaly) was exclusively caused by an increased uptake of solar energy due to a decreasing planetary albedo…”

Image Source: Nikolov and Zeller, 2024

Drs. Nikolov and Zeller further explain “the atmospheric longwave radiation is merely a byproduct (i.e., an effect) of the air temperatures rather than a driver of climate.”

This is because Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) – the energy budget presumed to be the determinant of atmospheric and ocean warming (positive imbalance) or cooling (negative) – “is not caused by heat retention (i.e., impedance of cooling) due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, and therefore does not carry excess energy that can be stored in the oceans and later released to cause more warming.”

In other words, the anthropogenic global warming conceptualization is not a real-world phenomenon. It does not exist.

“[A] global longwave radiative forcing predicted by climate models and attributed to rising concentrations of atmospheric trace gases does not exist in reality.”

“Thus, the available empirical evidence does not support the existence of an anthropogenic radiative forcing disturbing the energy flow within the Earth’s climate system.”