Month: August 2024

Ghosts of Sable Island

Populations of sea mammals often follow a rather predictable pattern through history. Here’s how she blows:

1) They are doing quite well, thanks

2) They get discovered by humans

3) They are slaughtered in large numbers, and only populations in remote areas survive

4) Brought to the brink of extinction, humans make a pact to let them alone, or partially alone, or alone in some places

5) The population recovers to a greater or lesser degree

6) The population becomes “threatened” by climate change, and the species is used as a talisman to try to get middle-class westerners out of their SUVs.

[I omit 7) where populations are threatened by measures that are supposedly aimed at “tackling” climate change.]

Unlike some of our contemporaries, I am not going to judge our forebears for engaging in acts that we enlightened 21st century metrosexuals find disagreeable. Some of our forebears took slaves (not mine, as far as I know; I come from countryside hayseed-chewing stock). Others set sail with their steely knives and set about slaughtering sea mammals. As I like to point out to anyone who will listen,

Poor people will kill anything that moves because it is a matter of survival.

This is why seals were clubbed to death up and down the land as soon as their lonely beaches became… not lonely beaches. This is also why entrepreneurs took ship to club seals to death further afield, or if you like, to shoot them from boats and try to net the dying animal before it had time to sink. This disgusts us now, but we live in a different world. A world where life, for now, is easy. We have electricity for light and Sainsbury’s for small packets of protein-rich food. We have the Haber process. We have phosphorus-rich minerals. We have petrochemicals.

One of the exemplars of the aforementioned pattern is our old toothy friend the walrus. A narrative (I will not say it is widespread) is that recent sightings of walruses at our low latitudes are because they are being driven south through a lack of sea ice. We had the imaginatively-named Wally, and then Freya, which may have been the one shot due to being stressed.

The swarming of walruses by curious idiots rather makes the point that remote places that they knew in prehistory are remote no longer.

Why would you want to retreat to an ice flow on the edge of the pack ice to give birth? Because places not on ice flows were not remote enough. Because in those not-remote-enough places, populations were hunted out mercilessly. They were, quite literally, driven to the ends of the Earth.

[Digressing slightly: the Mediterranean monk seal is perhaps one of the rarest seals on the planet. Uh? But the Mediterranean is a large place. Yes, but thanks to the fact that humans exist on all the shores of the Med, the monk seal was all but wiped out. It resorted to birthing its young in sea caves, where it could find them – a not unique circumstance, when it comes to men killing seals.]

There is an island in the Atlantic that I have mentioned before as a former haunt of walruses. It’s a long way south of the UK, but on the other side of the ocean. And the island is in itself sufficiently extraordinary to warrant a short digression.

Sable Island is one of those oddities that looks like an impossibility. 100 miles off the coast of Nova Scotia, you could walk across its widest point in twenty minutes, but it would take a day to walk from one end to the other (Google Earth featured image). It’s formed of sand (hence the name) and looks as if it might be part of a barrier island, but given its location, it clearly isn’t. Wiki says it was formed of a terminal moraine in the last glaciation. It doesn’t have a solid centre to hold things together – only an unusual system of sediment transport.

Naturally, as a giant sandbar in the middle of the Atlantic, Sable Island has seen its share of wrecks. Wiki says 350 vessels have come a cropper there. It was lately in the news when two dead people washed up in a life raft. Sarah Packwood and Brett Clibbery’s demise may or may not have a climate change angle. From the BBC:

In a video posted to their YouTube channel, Theros Adventures, the pair explained how their trip – dubbed the Green Odyssey – would rely on sails, solar panels, batteries and an electric engine repurposed from a car.

“We’re doing everything we can to show that you can travel without burning fossil fuels,” Mr Clibbery said in the video, posted on 12 April.

They had intended to sail from Nova Scotia to the Azores, but didn’t get very far in the Theros. The Telegraph wonders whether the yacht was top-heavy, or whether maybe the removal of the diesel engine was a mistake:

Mystery surrounds how the couple’s planned voyage turned to tragedy, with fears growing that their reliance on sail and an electric engine powered by solar panels, may have left them without back-up when things went wrong.

….

Some experts said the addition of the solar panels and battery pack will have added weight to the yacht and made it potentially unstable. There were also fears that salt water may have led to the lithium battery pack being corroded and catching fire.

Elsewhere in the article, a potential collision with a freighter is mentioned. Whatever the case, the words “Sable Island” reminded me to revisit the story of the walruses that used to call it home. There is, in truth, not much to tell: in outline, it follows the general pattern of human – sea mammal interactions that I described above. Except this one did not have a happy ending.

In those days, a large walrus was quite a prize. There were the tusks for ivory, the blubber that could be rendered down and burnt to create light, and the skin, which could be made into drive belts. The perceptive reader will note that we have alternative feedstocks for these kinds of materials now – petrochemicals.

Soon after the settlement of the New England colonies, this place became a favourite resort of fishermen for the purpose of killing morse and seals. The former are nearly exterminated, but the latter still afford, during the season, a favourite employment to the people of the Superintendent.

R. Montgomery Martin, The British Colonial Library, Vol. VI 1837

[Morse being walrus. The Superintendent lived in a house with some assistants, and they tried to rescue people whose ships ran aground.]

We take next The Natural History of the Island. For various reasons this narrow strip of sand, guarded by ever rolling surf, has been a favourite resort for various of the animal kingdom. Formerly the walrus, or sea lion, repaired to it in numbers. We read of as many as three hundred pairs of teeth collected. They have long ago all disappeared, yet even now the waves wash out from the sand the massive skull and long teeth of some old frequenter of the bars.

Lecture given to Athenaeum Society, February 1858 by J. Bernard Gilpin

There are several notices of it in Winthrop’s “Journal,” from which it appears that in the early part of the seventeenth century it was resorted to both by English and French fishermen, especially for the capture of the walrus and the seal. The former were then abundant, and were eagerly sought, their carcasses affording a large quantity of oil, their skins forming the toughest leather, and their tusks being of the best ivory and worth from three to four dollars a pair.

Sable Island, its history and phenomena, George Patterson, 1894

Well, the Sable Island walruses were hunted out, and have not returned. If they do, will it be a sign of climate change? Who knows. But the grey seals that were also present in large numbers before the hunters came have returned.

According to den Heyer et al 2020, 85,000 pups are born in a year, which is rather good going for such a small island.

den Heyer et al, Fig 3a. Tick marks are decades from 1960 to 2020; nos in thousands

And we know why they have returned, right? Because nobody kills them anymore.

This southward shift in production may reflect climate-mediated changes in population growth as well as reestablishment of colonies throughout the former range associated with increased protection.

den Heyer et al 2020

[Of course, we have to toss salt into the Devil’s eye.]

So, there we have it. A meander around a topic with a peripheral connection to climate change. Then, as we all know, everything is connected with climate change, if only you look hard enough.

Wiki again:

Being a large low-lying sandbar, Sable Island is vulnerable to sea level rise. This is further exacerbated by an ongoing increase in storm frequency and intensity caused by climate change, further eroding the island. These factors point toward Sable Island disappearing by the end of the century.

I would point to 2100 if I had to make a prediction like that, especially if I didn’t believe it. I wouldn’t be around to be proven wrong. But is it true? Two hundred years ago, Montgomery Martin thought that the island was shrinking. And bearing in mind how narrow it is, it would probably have surprised him to see it still approximately the same size today.

It is apprehended that the island is decreasing in size. The spot where the first superintendent dwelt is now more than three miles in the sea, and two fathoms of water break upon it. Although it must occasionally vary, according to the violence of storms and the action of the waters, yet it is thought that the effect of these is perceptible rather on the bars and shoals, than on the island itself ; and that it is diminished by the wind faster than it is supplied by the ocean.

R. Montgomery Martin, ibid.

This image shows an 1851 chart and a snip from a 2015 Google Earth image. The scale bars are (approximately!) the same length.

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August 31, 2024 at 01:59PM

Does more solar electricity production means more electricity export?

I came across this interesting graph presented in a tweet by Martien Visser:

Tweet BM_Visser: Solar vs Export graph 2024-08-20

It shows the comparison between the average daily production of electricity produced by solar and the average daily electricity export of the Netherlands over a one year period. Basically, each hour on the x-axis of the graph is the average of the values of that hour of every day of the year. For example, the value for 1 pm in the graph is the average of all values on 1 pm of every day of that one year period.

Looking at the graph, it is clear that the averaged export of electricity seems to follow the averaged solar electricity production for most of the day, except in the last six hours when export levels off instead of declining further.

The graph is an illustration of the relationship between export and solar production in the Netherlands. This is how the tweet explains it (translated from Dutch):

Over the past 12 months, the Netherlands has (indirectly) exported approximately 25% of its total (!) solar PV yield.
#graphoftheday
This export continues to count as renewable for the Netherlands. The subsidies (SDE) and network costs for this exported solar PV are also for the account of the Netherlands.

Exporting 25% of the solar electricity production, that seems quite a lot.

It reminds me of a post that I made eight years ago when I was looking into the claim that the electricity produced by lignite is the cause of Germany’s increased electricity exports. To figure this out, I compared German electricity exports with production of electricity by lignite, by solar and by solar plus wind. The electricity produced by lignite didn’t match electricity exports at all, the production of solar power matched way better, but it was the production of solar plus wind that matched electricity export best. I only used one week of data back then, but the amount of electricity being exported during that week was significant, maybe also somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% of the solar plus wind yield.

That made me wonder how this would play out in Belgium? Would there be the same correlation of electricity exports with solar here? Or with both solar and wind as I found in the post from eight years ago?

Time to look into the data. All relevant data can be found on the Elia website (import/export balance, solar and wind).

I first started re-creating the graph of the Netherlands. This is the Belgian average daily import/export balance compared to the average daily solar production in the year 2023 (quarter hour interval, so a higher resolution than the graph of the Netherlands):

Chart0027a: Belgium Average Daily Solar vs Import/Export balance 2023

The average daily import/export balance also follows solar production, but not as pronounced as in the graph of the Netherlands. There are however not that many times during which the balance switches to export. The import/export balance only slightly switches to export roughly between noon and 3 pm (which coincides with the highest production of electricity by solar).

Also here, there are the slightly elevated values during the last six hours of the day, similar to what I saw in the graph of the Netherlands. Based on my previous experiences, I assumed that it might be the effect of wind, so let’s look at the wind data. This is what wind did over the same period:

Chart0027a:  Belgium Average Daily Wind vs Import Export balance 2023

The averaged wind values are pretty stable over the day. There is on average slightly less wind around noon and slightly more in the evening.

Let’s now compare the import/export balance with the sum of solar and wind electricity production:

Chart0027a: Belgium Average Daily Solar plus Wind vs Import/Export balance 2023

That seems a better match than solar alone. Electricity production by solar and wind is on average lowest in the night/early morning, then picks up towards early afternoon, after which it gradually decreasing but staying slightly elevated during the evening. That is similar to what the import/export balance does, confirming my earlier findings that export is related to the sum of solar and wind production, rather than solar alone. My guess is that when the graph of the Netherlands would also include wind, that it would be an even better match.

Why such a difference between the Netherlands (25% solar exported) and Belgium (less than 2% solar exported)? I guess it is a combination of several factors. For example, the Netherlands has a higher share of renewables than Belgium and it also has relatively more solar in the mix. This means that the solar/export connection will be more pronounced in the Netherlands. Also, Belgium has an aging grid infrastructure and current policies favor import more than domestic (dispatchable) production. Therefore, more solar and wind production in Belgium on average seem to translate into less reliance on import rather than more export.

The reason why the Netherlands, but also Germany and, to a lesser extent, Belgium export more when it is sunny and/or windy has I think to do with (a lack of) balancing capacity. The larger the share of intermittent power sources without the ability to balance that power, the more electricity needs to get rid of during times of plenty of sun and/or wind. Exporting it abroad apparently seem to be cheaper than building the necessary balancing capacity to actually deal with the intermittency.

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August 31, 2024 at 01:53PM

Climate scientists’ taxpayer-funded plot to create ‘global cooling’

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Philip Bratby

 

 

 

image

In the classic 1995 Simpsons episode Who Shot Mr Burns?, the devious Montgomery Burns conspires to increase his vast fortune by forcing Springfield to pay for round-the-clock heat and electricity by blocking out the sun.

“Since the beginning of time, man has yearned to destroy the sun,” he says. “I will do the next best thing: block it out!” His plot to blot out our star’s rays, using a giant mirror on top of a mountain, is decried by his assistant, Smithers, as crossing the line from “everyday villainy to cartoonish supervillainy”.

While attempts to alter the climate by interfering with the sun were once fodder for cartoons or science fiction novels, today’s scientists are actively considering the idea for a more altruistic purpose.

By finding a safe way to dim the sun’s rays, advocates argue humans could bring about a controlled period of “global cooling”, mitigating the catastrophic impacts of climate change.

Theoretical approaches include releasing particles into the upper atmosphere that deflect the worst of the sun’s radiation, thinning high-altitude clouds that contribute to the “greenhouse” effect, or even building vast mirrors in space to block the Sun’s light.

The idea of attempting radical geoengineering has proved controversial, with academics concerned about the risks involved in manipulating our planet’s atmosphere rather than focusing on emissions reduction.

But with growing fears the world could fail to limit global warming to 2C, the British Government is preparing to put taxpayer cash from the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria) towards field trials that can test whether sci-fi climate engineering could become a reality.

Aria is an innovation lab that was the brainchild of Dominic Cummings, the former No 10 adviser to Boris Johnson. Armed with £800m, it is tasked with pursuing scientific research to unlock “breakthroughs at the edge of the possible”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/31/how-taxpayers-cash-funnelled-climate-manipulation/

It is hard to know where to start!!

The idea of lunatic scientists, and I use that adjective deliberately, should be let loose messing with the Earth’s atmosphere is frankly frightening. It has repeatedly been proved that modelled projections of global warming have been grossly overestimated for years now. Yet these scientists, for whom climate change is a religion, could be given the tools to send us back into another Ice Age in their quest to “save” the planet.

Meanwhile at the more mundane end of the scale, why on earth are UK taxpayers being paying £800 million to “save” the rest of the world who are happy to keep pumping out more CO2 regardless. If there is a blackhole in UK finances, maybe Starmer should start with cancelling this waste of money.

And the award for the most fraudulent graph of the week?

image

There is no evidence that droughts are getting worse, so why does the Telegraph want its readers to think they will in future?

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August 31, 2024 at 01:26PM

Forbes: AI is Driving Corporations to Abandon Climate Commitments

Essay by Eric Worrall

First published JoNova; Yet more evidence yesterday’s utopian corporate climate mission statements are today’s shredder trash.

Why Big Corporations Are Quietly Abandoning Their Climate Commitments?

Jemma Green
Contributor
Updated Aug 30, 2024, 03:09pm EDT

On the topic of climate and carbon reduction commitments, corporations like Google, Microsoft, and Shell once positioned themselves as leaders in sustainability, setting ambitious net-zero goals to align with global environmental efforts. However, the rapid rise of energy-hungry artificial intelligence is forcing these companies to reconsider—or even abandon—these commitments as they struggle to balance environmental responsibility and making money from new tech.

AI’s energy hunger and corporate climate hypocrisy

Training and operating large AI models demands immense computational power, typically sourced from data centers in regions where energy is cheaper rather than where renewable energy is dominant. This rapid expansion poses a significant threat to global clean energy transition efforts, prompting the International Energy Agency ​ (IEA) to suggest that governments consider carbon taxes to account for AI’s environmental impact.

The situation is particularly pertinent in the United States, where data centers outnumber those in China nearly 12 to 1. As AI demand skyrockets, so does the need for computing resources and the energy to power it. Utilities in the U.S. are scrambling to increase capacity to support both energy transition objectives and growing AI and manufacturing​ markets. Research from Goldman Sachs estimates that data center power demand will grow 160% by 2030.

Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemmagreen/2024/08/29/why-big-corporations-are-quietly-abandoning-their-climate-commitments/

Forbes goes on to claim blockchain purchase of random compute resources might allow more efficiency, but that doesn’t solve the problem of where all that extra energy is supposed to come from.

Former corporate green champions seem to have developed a big interest in nuclear energy.

Of course solar and renewables are still good enough for the peasants, it’s only the special people who need reliable energy for their all important profit making artificial intelligence projects.

Microsoft’s Solar Power Move: Lighting Up Singapore and India’s Future

ByJennifer L
August 30, 2024

Microsoft is doubling down on its renewable energy commitments with groundbreaking deals in both Singapore and India. The company securred a 20-year agreement with Singapore’s largest SolarNova project and a significant green energy purchase from India’s ReNew Energy Global.

Shining Bright with Singapore’s SolarNova 8

The long-term contract will see Microsoft buying 100% of the renewable energy exported to the grid from the project, which is managed by EDP Renewables (EDPR). 

The SolarNova 8 project is recognized as the largest solar initiative under Singapore’s SolarNova program. It aims to install solar panels on over 1,000 public housing blocks and more than 100 government-owned buildings. Together, they’ll collectively generate up to 200 megawatts (MW) of capacity.

Read more: https://carboncredits.com/microsofts-solar-power-move-lighting-up-singapore-and-indias-future/

Perhaps I am being too harsh. Obviously companies like Microsoft plan to put 100% of their efforts into renewables, and another 100% of their effort into nuclear.

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August 31, 2024 at 12:04PM