In the aftermath of the tragic Texas Hill Country flooding, a barrage of mainstream media outlets, including; CBS Texas “History warned of the Central Texas flood: Why the danger on the Guadalupe River wasn’t a surprise,” CNN “How climate change made Texas flooding more violent,” and San Antonio Current “Bill Nye the Science Guy calls for fossil fuel ban as death toll from Texas flood continues to rise,” have advanced the narrative that climate change is turning extreme weather and deadly floods into a “new normal.” These claims are wrong, misleading, and, frankly, do a disservice to public understanding of Texas flood risk. The historical and scientific record shows no significant trend toward more frequent or severe heat waves or floods in this region. The evidence instead points to a simple, unchanging fact: Floods have happened here for millennia, long before SUVs and coal fired power plants, and will continue as long as the Guadalupe River flows.

Perhaps the most absurd quote comes from the San Antonio Current, in which Bill Nye declares:

Other than installing early flood warning systems in flood-prone areas, Nye said the only way prevent similar tragedies in the future is for Congress to enact a total fossil fuel ban to curb the effects of climate change. He added that humans’ alterations to the climate have been scientifically proven to exacerbate flooding events.

Calling for the elimination of fossil fuels as the only solution to flooding on a river that’s been flooding since before the invention of the steamboat is not a scientific argument, but a political one.

Let’s be clear: flooding along the Guadalupe River is neither new nor “caused” by today’s climate. The very first line in the CBS Texas report actually gets it right: “Texas hydrologists working with the National Weather Service say they recognized the conditions last Thursday that could lead to catastrophic flooding on the Guadalupe River. And they say, based on past events, this kind of outcome was a known risk.”

The area’s own official safety guide states:

If you live in the Guadalupe River Basin, you also live in one of the three most dangerous regions in the U.S.A. for flash floods! Local residents and weather experts refer to the Texas Hill Country as ‘Flash Flood Alley,’ because heavy rainfall and runoff from creeks and streams can cause rapid rises and flooding in a matter of hours… The Guadalupe River experienced major floods in 1936, 1952, 1972, 1973, 1978, 1987, 1991 and 1997. Last year’s flood of October 1998 developed in a matter of hours, broke most existing records, exceeded the 100-year flood plain, and inundated areas that had never been flooded before. But floods are not predictable. They do not follow measured cycles.

The fact that the area has been previously named as “Flash Flood Alley,” complete with it’s own Wikipedia page, which states: “Flash Flood Alley is an area of Central Texas that is considered the most flash-flood prone region in the United States,” should negate any climate change claims about the most recent flood all by itself.

This is not a fossil-fuel problem, it’s a geography problem. Texas Hill Country’s steep terrain, rocky ground, and narrow riverbeds react rapidly to intense rain, making the region prone to sudden, severe flooding. The river has repeatedly exceeded historic flood levels even when atmospheric CO2 was much lower than it is today.

Let’s review the record—because, unlike much of the modern media, data matters more than opinion:

• Major floods in the Guadalupe River Basin occurred all throughout the 20^th century, well before the current era of supposed “climate crisis.”
• The catastrophic October 1998 flood developed in just a few hours, broke most existing records, and exceeded the so-called 100-year flood plain, flooding areas “that had never been flooded before.” The official flood guide bluntly states, “Unfortunately, an even greater flood will occur sometime in the future.”
• These events took place when global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 were lower than they are today.

The CBS Texas article actually provides a rare moment of candor:

The I-Team reviewed National Weather Service and historical crest records and found that the Guadalupe River has experienced major flooding more than a dozen times in the last century… The river in that area has been even higher four other times since tracking began, and it’s reached more than 25 feet on 15 other occasions.

Camp Mystic where many people died, and other riverside camp properties are built on a flood plain. As tragic as the deaths are, the decision to continue rebuilding and vacationing in a known, historic flood zone guarantees that people will remain at risk. Blaming “climate change” for fatalities while ignoring this fundamental fact is both irresponsible and misleading.

The CBS article quotes an unnamed Texas Severe Storms Association spokesperson who said:

“Campsites and homes in high-risk areas like the Hill Country should be relocated to higher ground and properties within the flood zone should be utilized only for day use.”

In other words, the tragedy is not about fossil fuels, it’s about ignoring land use history and basic floodplain management.

Another misleading narrative being pushed by media and pundits is the idea that deaths resulted from budget cuts at NOAA or the National Weather Service. Jason Johnson, a lead hydrologist at the NOAA West Gulf River Forecast Center in Fort Worth was also quoted in the CBS article, saying, “Despite the tragedy, Johnson said his team was staffed and ready. Forecasting models were in place. More scientists were on standby. ‘We had our best people on shift… everyone was utilized,’ he said.”

Clearly, no budget cuts affected staffing during this event.

Documents show the National Weather Service issued a Flash Flood Watch up to 10 hours before water swept through the campsites, followed by a Flash Flood Warning 3 hours ahead, giving ample time for action.

By 5:34 AM, the warning turned into a Flash Flood EMERGENCY: “A LARGE AND DEADLY FLOOD WAVE IS MOVING DOWN THE GUADALUPE.” “SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW.” shown in NWS bulletins. Campers and families were directly named in the alert:

Timely and direct warnings were issued, and it is a tragedy that people along the river either didn’t receive them, or if they did, ignored them.

The official “Staying Safe” flood guide for the Guadalupe River underscores the importance of personal responsibility:

Despite these staggering losses, more damage was prevented and lives were saved because the initial flooding occurred during daylight hours and because people listened to warnings from their local emergency management and law enforcement officials… It should also convince you that the Guadalupe Basin rivers will flood again.

Contrary to the dire claims of Bill Nye and the CNN report, data from climate agencies and historical records show no increasing trend in heat waves or flooding for Texas or the United States as a whole. NOAA’s own records indicate that the frequency of major floods nationwide peaked in the early 20th century and has not increased in recent decades. If climate change had any role in causing or exacerbating the rainfall, it should be apparent in the rainfall and flooding history of the area. Below is a chart of Texas flash floods from 1996 to 2024 that show a DECLINE in these extreme weather events.

Recent peer-reviewed studies have found no increase in the global frequency or intensity of floods, despite higher CO2 levels. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports it has “low confidence” climate change is impacting flooding and hedges its bets, noting low confidence in any detectable link between flooding trends and manmade climate change. For further reading, see comprehensive analysis at Climate At A Glance: Floods.

The real danger is that media and activist “science communicators” use every tragedy to promote costly, irrelevant policy agendas like Bill Nye’s call for a total fossil fuel ban, which would devastate the Texas economy, cripple energy reliability, and do nothing to prevent flash floods in the Hill Country. The history of the region is written in water, not carbon dioxide.

Facts say this was a natural event that has happened before and the facts remain unchanged; floods have always been part of life in Texas Hill Country and always will be. The real solution is to heed warnings, avoid rebuilding in known flood zones, and resist the urge to politicize every natural disaster as proof of “climate crisis.” If history tells us anything, it’s that ignoring the lessons of the past is a far greater danger than any supposed climate tipping point. It is shameful that Bill Nye and CNN promoted baseless and false rhetoric to gain political points.

Anthony Watts

Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.

Originally posted at ClimateRealism