‘God of Darkness’ Asteroid Will Pass Extremely Close to Earth in 2029

From Legal Insurrection

OSIRIS-APEX, the follow-up to OSIRIS-REx, will study changes to asteroid from its rare close encounter with Earth in April 2029.

Posted by Leslie Eastman

Asteroid Apophis, named after the Egyptian god of chaos and destruction, is a near-Earth asteroid that has garnered significant attention due to its close approach to our home planet.

Discovered in 2004, Apophis is classified as a potentially hazardous object. Due to swing close enough to the planet in 2029, the gravitational influence will be enough to cause tremors.

A recent study led by Ronald-Louis Ballouz from Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory suggests that the asteroid 99942 Apophis may experience tremors—similar to earthquakes—due to Earth’s gravitational pull during its close flyby on April 13, 2029, with simulations indicating significant surface changes.

Apophis, approximately 340 meters in size, will pass within about 32,000 kilometers of Earth, closer than many satellites in orbit.

When Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004, by Roy Tucker, David Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi during the University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey (UHAS), initial calculations indicated that it could approach Earth with a risk of collision, especially during its pass in 2029. It didn’t help that it is named after the Egyptian god of darkness and chaos.

The original estimates for collision were as high as 2.7%, and Apophis achieved the highest rating ever on the ‘Torino scale’ – a method used to evaluate the threat that an asteroid poses to Earth.

However, new calculations and observations have led scientists to conclude that there will be no impact….for at least 100 years.

….Using the data available at the time, astronomers believed that there was a chance that the flyby could alter the trajectory of Apophis in a way that would line it up for a collision with Earth in 2068.

However, radar observations of Apophis made by NASA’s Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex in California and the Green Bank Observatory, West Virginia, in March 2021 greatly improved our knowledge of the asteroid’s current orbit and allowed astronomers to finally rule out any chance of Earth impact for at least 100 years.

And while it won’t strike Earth, Apophis will be bright enough in the skies to be visible to the unaided eye. So, the viewing parties could be fun!

As I mentioned, the viewing parties of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are currently making their own plans for up-close-and-personal observations.

The OSIRIS-APEX mission is slated to visit the asteroid. It continues the OSIRIS-REx mission, which successfully collected and returned samples from asteroid Bennu (which I reported on in a 2023 post).

OSIRIS-APEX is a mission to study the physical changes to asteroid Apophis that will result from its rare close encounter with Earth in April 2029. That year, Apophis’ orbit will bring it within 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) of Earth’s surface — closer to Earth than our highest-altitude satellites. Our planet’s gravitational pull is expected to alter the asteroid’s orbit, change how fast it spins on its axis, and possibly cause quakes or landslides that will alter its surface.

OSIRIS-APEX will allow scientists on Earth to observe these changes. Additionally, the OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft will dip toward the surface of Apophis ­– a “stony” asteroid made of silicate (or rocky) material and a mixture of metallic nickel and iron ­ – and fire its engines to kick up loose rocks and dust. This maneuver will give scientists a peek at the composition of material just below the asteroid’s surface.

Other satellite projects, including those related to planetary defense, are also being planned.

Under the auspicious “NEAlight” project, a team from Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg (JMU) and led by space engineer Hakan Kayal has revealed three concepts for such spacecraft. Each of the suggested satellites will aim to exploit this asteroid passage because Earth experiences just once such event every millennium.

The goal? To collect data that could help scientists better understand the solar system, and perhaps even aid in the development of defense measures against dangerous asteroids.

via Watts Up With That?

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November 27, 2024 at 04:01AM

Labour poised to water down electric car rules amid crisis in industry

By Paul Homewood

 

 

Kicking the can down the road is no solution, Mr Reynolds!

 

 

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Labour is poised to water down electric vehicle (EV) rules amid a mounting crisis in the industry over the pace of the transition away from petrol and diesel cars.

Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary, on Tuesday night confirmed a review of the Government’s zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate after warnings from carmakers that the rules were putting the industry’s future at risk.

Vauxhall said on Tuesday it was planning to close its Luton factory after 120 years of manufacturing at the site, putting more than 1,100 jobs at risk. Stellantis, which owns Vauxhall, said it was taking the decision “in the context of the ZEV mandate”.

It follows months of lobbying from carmakers, with Ford saying it would cut 800 UK jobs as it reduces EV production and Nissan demanding a private meeting with the Business Secretary amid fears it could leave the UK.

Meanwhile in Europe, governments are also under pressure to rein in EV targets, with Porsche saying on Tuesday it will stick with petrol engines for “much longer” than previously planned as it pulls back from electric cars.

Europe’s top carmakers suffered a further setback on Tuesday after more than €10bn (£8.9bn) was wiped off their value following Donald Trump’s announcement that he would impose tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China.

Mr Reynolds told bosses at an industry dinner on Tuesday that the Government will announce a fast-track consultation on changes to its ZEV mandate, which requires an ever-greater percentage of manufacturers’ sales to be electric over the next six years.

He said: “We are absolutely committed to our manifesto commitment of a 2030 phase-out for new cars powered solely by internal combustion engines. We are not changing our level of ambition for the transition, and there will be no repeat of the uncertainty generated by the previous administration.

“But at the same time, the Transport Secretary and I have heard you loud and clear on the need for support to make this transition a success, and that’s why we will be consulting with you on changes to the same mandate and inviting your views on options for a better way forward.”

The Government is expected to stress that a final 2030 deadline for new petrol and diesel sales is non-negotiable. However, it is also likely to suggest that carmakers will be able to delay cuts to petrol and diesel sales in the run-up to 2030, provided they make up for it by selling even more electric cars later on.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/26/britain-poised-to-water-down-electric-vehicle-rules/ 

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If that final sentence is true, he is merely wasting his time.

It would simply mean manufacturers borrowing from future allowances. In other words, they will have to pay their fines in a couple of years time, instead of now.

What Reynolds still has not appreciated is that if buyers don’t want an EV now, they are just as unlikely to in a few years time.

If he wants to avoid real damage to our car industry, he now needs to immediately abandon the ZEV mandate completely.

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

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November 27, 2024 at 03:19AM

THE UNLIKELY TASK OF REACHING 81% OF NET ZERO BY 2035

 What percentage of UK Electricity is renewable by type?

Total 43.1%    Wind alone 30.4%    Biomass 6.6%   Solar 4.7%      Hydro 1.4%

Electricity is 20% of total energy, so these must be divided by 5 to get their percentage of total energy.

Total 8.62%    Wind     6.08%      Biomass 1.32%   Solar 0.94%     Hydro 0.28%

So it is clear from these figures that over 90% of the UK energy comes from fossil fuels or nuclear, despite all the massive drive to build wind and solar. The government has just declared that by 2035 we will have become 81% net zero. That looks like a very difficult task, but this government is unlikely to be in power when that date is reached. I wonder what odds a bookmaker would give on that?  

via climate science

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November 27, 2024 at 01:41AM

Climategate Turns 15!

“I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she thinks she’s doing, but it’s not helping the cause, or her professional credibility.” (- Michael Mann, below)

The futile, wasteful anti-CO2 crusade is in its 37th year, dating from the hot, dry summer of 1988 when NASA scientist James Hansen sounded the alarm before U.S. lawmakers, led by Al Gore.

Last week, the United Nations Conference of Parties (COP) ended with acrimony over an unenforceable agreement pledging to transfer wealth to developing (Statist) countries for “clean” energy development.

CO2 emissions cuts? With almost all major emitters well beyond the targets set in the 2015 Paris Accord, the (also) unenforceable agreement is losing more and more every day as self-interest swamps aspirations. The recipient welfare states described COP29 as “chaotic,” “complete failure,” “optical illusion,” “stage managed,” and “paltry.” Big Green recognized the international effort as more greenwashing than progress, not unlike prior COP results. Mainstream media has tried to paint a happy face on the walking dead.

COP29’s failure should not be surprising? Stated James Hansen.

[The Paris agreement] is a fraud really, a fake. It’s just bullshit for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.

But it all begins with the physical science, and the science of climate alarmism has really never recovered from its PR disaster 15 years ago: Climategate. No amount of whitewashing can erase the words, sentences, and paragraphs of one of the greatest scientific scandals of our time. Four categories are mentioned below:

Man-Made Warming Controversy

“I know there is pressure to present a nice tidy story as regards ‘apparent unprecedented warming in a thousand years or more in the proxy data’ but in reality the situation is not quite so simple.”

—Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, disclosed Climategate e-mail, Sep. 22, 1999.

“Keith’s [Briffa] series…differs in large part in exactly the opposite direction that Phil’s [Jones] does from ours. This is the problem we all picked up on (everyone in the room at IPCC was in agreement that this was a problem and a potential distraction/detraction from the reasonably consensus viewpoint we’d like to show w/ the Jones et al and Mann et al series).”

—Dr. Michael Mann, IPCC Lead Author, disclosed Climategate e-mail, Sep. 22, 1999.

“…it would be nice to try to ‘contain’ the putative ‘MWP’ [Medieval Warm Period]…”

—Dr. Michael Mann, IPCC Lead Author, disclosed Climategate e-mail, June 4, 2003

“By the way, when is Tom C [Crowley] going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year reconstruction??? It would help the cause to be able to refer to that reconstruction as confirming Mann and Jones, etc.”

—Dr. Michael Mann, IPCC Lead Author, disclosed Climategate e-mail, Aug. 3, 2004.

“I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she thinks she’s doing, but it’s not helping the cause, or her professional credibility.”

—Dr. Michael Mann, IPCC Lead Author, disclosed Climategate e-mail, May 30, 2008

“Well, I have my own article on where the heck is global warming… The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”

—Dr. Kevin Trenberth, IPCC Lead Author, disclosed Climategate e-mail, Oct. 12, 2009.

Manipulating Temperature Data

“I’ve just completed Mike’s [Mann] Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s [Briffa] to hide the decline.

—Dr. Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, disclosed Climategate e-mail, Nov. 16, 1999

“Also we have applied a completely artificial adjustment to the data after 1960, so they look closer to observed temperatures than the tree-ring data actually were….

—Dr. Tim Osborn, Climatic Research Unit, disclosed Climategate e-mail, Dec. 20, 2006.

“If you look at the attached plot you will see that the land also shows the 1940s warming blip (as I’m sure you know). So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say 0.15 deg C, then this would be significant for the global mean—but we’d still have to explain the land blip….”

—Dr. Tom Wigley, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, on adjusting global temperature data, disclosed Climategate e-mail to Phil Jones, Sep. 28, 2008.

“We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e. quality controlled and homogenized) data.”

—Climatic Research Unit web site, the world’s leading provider of global temperature data, admitting that it can’t produce the original thermometer data, 2011.

Data Suppression; Freedom of Information (FOI) Avoidance

“We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try to find something wrong with it.”

—Dr. Phil Jones, Director of the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University, email to Warwick Hughes, 2004.

“I’m getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station temperature data. Don’t any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act.”

—Dr. Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, disclosed Climategate e-mail, Feb. 21, 2005.

“Mike [Mann], can you delete any e-mails you may have had with Keith [Trenberth] re AR4? Keith will do likewise…. Can you also e-mail Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t have his e-mail address…. We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.”

—Dr. Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, disclosed Climategate e-mail, May 29, 2008.

“You might want to check with the IPCC Bureau. I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 [the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report] would be to delete all e-mails at the end of the process. Hard to do, as not everybody will remember it.”

—Dr. Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, on avoiding Freedom of Information requirements, disclosed Climategate e-mail, May 12, 2009.

Subverting the Peer-Review Process

“I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin [Trenberth] and I will keep them out somehow, even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!”

—Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, disclosed Climategate e-mail, July 8, 2004.

Implications

The establishment whitewashed and then pretended that the episode was over. Mr. Climategate himself, Michael Mann, called the episode “pathetic” and “shameless”. [1] “After three inquiries, thousands of column inches and several death threats,” Dave Reay wrote in Nature, “the ‘Climategate’ affair is now subsiding into the long grass of conspiracy blogs.” [2]

Nope. Climategate is nary forgotten as a blatant case of professional misconduct and a classic case of ‘Busted!”. It lives in infamy.

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[1] Mann added:

As for emails that in some way involve me, I hardly see anything damning at all, despite these snippets all being taken out of context. I guess they had very little left to work with, having culled in the first round the emails that could most easily be taken out of context to try to make me look bad…. Agents doing the dirty bidding of the fossil fuel industry know they can’t contest the fundamental science of human-caused climate change. So they have instead turned to smear, innuendo, criminal hacking of websites, and leaking out-of-context snippets of personal emails in their effort to try to confuse the public about the science and thereby forestall any action to combat this critical threat.”

[2] Better reactions were made by Derek Lowe in Science who stated, “what I feel needs to be looked at is the scientific conduct. I’m no climatologist, but I am an experienced working scientist – so, is there a problem here?”

I’ll give you the short answer: yes. I have to say that there appears to be several, as shown by many troubling features in the documents that have come out. The first one is the apparent attempts to evade the UK’s Freedom of Information Act. I don’t see how these messages can be interpreted in any other way as an attempt to break the law, and I don’t see how they can be defended…. A second issue is a concerted effort to shape what sorts of papers get into the scientific literature. Again, this does not seem to be a matter of interpretation; such messages as this, this, and this spell out exactly what’s going on. You have talk of getting journal editors fired…. A third issue I want to comment on are the problems with the data and its analysis…. No matter what you think about climate change, if you respect the scientific endeavor, this is very bad news. Respect has to be earned. And it can be lost.

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November 27, 2024 at 01:10AM