From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin 

Germany’s economy expected to dip into recession as Green policies backfire. 

Since a coalition of the SPD socialists, Green environmentalists and FDP liberals took over the government in late 2021, the German economy has been declining and business confidence eroding.

Degrowth

Today Blackout News reports that the German socialist/green/liberal government has revised its economic outlook downward once again.

Recall that in 2021 the economy recovered strongly, with GDP growth reaching 2.7%. But at the end of the year, the socialists, greens and liberals took over, pledging to implement a green revolution. Almost immediately the economy slowed to a growth of 1.9% in 2022 and an anemic 0.1% in 2023.

But nothing to worry about, Germany’s economic minister Robert Habeck (Greens) insisted. The malaise was all Russia’s fault, and Germany only needed to stay his green course. The troubles, after all, have little to do with Germany’s skyrocketing energy costs and his green policies. Things will surely improve.

Back to recession

Well, they haven’t. And today, things are getting worse by the minute. According to Blackout News:

Germany’s economic situation has deteriorated drastically this year. Instead of the expected growth, Economics Minister Robert Habeck is now forecasting a decline in economic output. Originally a plus of 0.3 percent was forecast, now a minus of 0.2 percent is being calculated. These new figures reflect the serious situation of the German economy.”

Habeck promises growth – starting next year!

Now, Habeck, who has no financial or economic education at all – see below, wants us to forget 2024 and is promising 1.1% growth for 2025 and a ruddy 1.6% for 2026. Habeck said in a recent interview. “The growth initiative of this federal government is a necessary first step.”

Minister is confident that the German economy will be able to grow more strongly in the coming years if his measures are fully implemented.

Grim future for the Greens

Habeck’s promises haven’t panned out in three years. yet he expects us to believe they will beginning next year. The air is getting very thin for Habeck, his fellow Greens and Socialists. Next year federal elections are taking place and the polls look as grim as the economy.

The liberal arts economist

Economics Minister Robert Habeck studied German language and philosophy and received a Masters Degree in literature and philosophy in 1996. He was awarded doctorate in 2000 and joined the ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS in 2002. Today he is Germany’s Federal Minister for Economics. 

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From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

A recent article in UnHerd by John Rapley, in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, claimed that climate change has intensified extreme weather and increased the economic cost of weather disasters.

To quote:

“The American economy is ill-prepared for the rising frequency and intensity of such compound weather events. Of the 10 costliest extreme weather events to have ever happened in the US, six occurred in the last decade, the result of climate change intensifying weather patterns.”

https://unherd.com/newsroom/will-extreme-weather-events-break-the-us-financial-system

Is there any of evidence of this assertion though?

Far from Hurricane Milton being the storm of the century, as widely alleged in the media, it was no more than a middling Cat 3 storm, a run of the mill event as far as Florida is concerned. In terms of intensity, it ranked only 75^th strongest in US recorded history.

It was the third hurricane to hit Florida this year, following Debby and Helene, but there is nothing unusual about this. Moreover, the official record dating back to 1851 provides no evidence of hurricanes becoming more frequent:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

Also, the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concluded in their annual review of hurricanes earlier this year that “there is no strong evidence of century scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes. “

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes

So, if hurricanes are not getting more frequent or powerful, why are economic losses increasing?

Simply because as a society and as individuals, we have more stuff to lose. The population of Florida has exploded over the years, particularly in coastal areas, which are most vulnerable to hurricanes. That means more homes and infrastructure.

And as they become wealthier, people own more assets. They no longer live in wooden cabins, but luxury homes. They own cars, the latest electronic gadgets and designer clothes. On top of that, rising real wages mean that repairing the damage from a hurricane will now cost considerably more than in the past.

A weather disaster that may have cost $500 million thirty years could cost a billion now, even when the effects of inflation are allowed for.

Professor Roger Pielke Jr is one of the leading experts on the cost of disasters, having studied the topic for thirty years or more. A recent peer-reviewed study of his found that when changes in asset values are factored in, what he refers to as “normalised”, there is no long-term trend in losses from Atlantic hurricanes hitting the US.

Katrina stands out as the costliest in recent times, but even that did not compare with the 1926 “Miami” Hurricane, which effectively wiped the city off the map:

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about

Pielke also looked at losses from floods and tornadoes in the US, and both show a marked decline in losses.

Another Pielke study analysed global weather losses, of which he reckons 60% are accounted for by US hurricanes! When measured as a percentage of GDP, the long-term trend is down:

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont-believe-the-hype?utm_source=publication-search

Rapley makes the mistake of relying on NOAA’s Billion Dollar Disaster Database, which does not take account of increasing wealth and GDP. Instead, economic losses are only adjusted for CPI.

Indeed, another peer-reviewed paper by Pielke this year has described the NOAA database as flawed and misleading.

America has always been ravaged by hurricanes and other weather disasters. But it now has the resources, technology and money to bounce back from them.

A nation that had to deal with the Miami hurricane or Katrina can surely cope with a Milton.

By Jo Nova

The Blob are losing control of the message

Even Gallup admits the US is suffering from a crisis in confidence in their institutions, and the least trusted of all is “the media”.

For some reason, telling readers that they are selfish, small minded people who are screwing up the world isn’t resonating with the Rednecks. In 2020 40% of US Citizens thought the media was trustworthy, but now only 31% do, an all time record low. This is the same media that told us elections were secure, vaccines were safe and effective and Joe Biden was sharp as a tack right up until the day everyone discovered he had dementia.

The Pullitzer-prize-guys fell for every bureaucratic lie they could —  Hunter Bidens laptop was Russian disinfo, ivermectin was horse-dewormer, and an unarmed mob with a horned hat and flags staged an insurrection against the  largest military power in the world.

There’s a price to pay for lying and the media have barely began to pay it.

Obviously they need to censor blogs and social media

The big question is why do 31% still trust the media?

Possibly their paypacket depends on believing the program. And welfare is so much easier to take with a dose of Media entitlement-sauce.

It’s a long term decline

The full graph shows just how different things used to be. Once upon a time, 70% of the people believed the media.

Imagine a tool so effective, with such a brand, that 70% of voters believed it. Such a tool would be a magnet for the rich and powerful to control for other purposes, and so it has come to pass…

https://ift.tt/8sbThRP

The media are impartial professionals, of course, but for some reason the audience are biased:

Over half of Democrats like what they hear, but only 1 in 8 Republicans do.

https://ift.tt/8sbThRP

Trump’s Fake News meme in 2016 hit a nerve with Republicans and it stuck. The hate campaign against him only proves his point to Republican voters.

Since the media are supposed to be the watchdogs, the graph is almost a proxy for the decline of The West.