Research links El Niño to Atlantic weather a year later, could enhance long-range weather forecasting


Another highlight of the underrated significance of natural climate variability by believers in human causes for all sorts of weather events and their effects.
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New research has revealed that the impact of one of the world’s most influential global climate patterns is much more far-reaching than originally thought, says Phys.org.

Scientists at the U.K.’s Meteorological Office have discovered that away from the tropics, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has an additional impact on Atlantic weather patterns a full year on from the original event.

Research shows this one year lagged extratropical response to ENSO is as strong as the simultaneous response, but with an opposite impact.

The paper is published in the journal Science.

For example, it has now been shown that El Niño, which can increase the chance of colder winters in the UK, can result in a milder winter period the following year.

While ENSO is just one of many drivers that influence the UK weather, it can be important, particularly in the winter months.

Lead researcher Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office and the University of Exeter, said, “This latest research reveals that El Niño is often followed by positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) a whole year later, while La Niña is followed by negative NAO one year later.

The results of this research have major implications for understanding ENSO, explaining our winter climate variability and interpreting long range predictions.”

The research shows that knowledge of the previous winter ENSO event is also important for understanding some of the UK’s extreme winters. In cases in which El Niño is followed by La Niña, or vice versa, the lagged effects can boost expected impacts.

Full article here.
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Research article: ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation 1 year later (Oct. 2024)

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October 4, 2024 at 03:44AM

Not About CO2…Greenland Still Much Colder Today Than Much Of The Past 10,000 Years

Norwegian climate blog site avdekt.no here reports how the GISP2 ice core data from Greenland shows the current temperature is well below the Holocene average. 

Moreover, these temperatures also match perfectly with the historical sources in Norway and Europe, according to avedkt.no.

The chart below shows a temperature reconstruction based on ice cores going back more than 10,000 years. Iskjernedataene fra Grønlandland

Chart: avdekt.no 

The temperature over the Holocene was above today’s level on at least 9 occasions, each spanning many years. Indeed today’s temperature is still on the cool side for the Holocene.

Although man is having a heating impact on today’s modern climate through land-use and modest greenhouse gas warming, natural solar and oceanic factors are still far more powerful than man’s impact. How else can the wide variations occurring over the Holocene be explained?

Today’s temperature is still 2°C below the warmer peaks seen 7,900, 7,000 and 3,400 years ago.

The Greenland GISP2 ice core is viewed as a gold standard when it comes to proxy data-based  temperature reconstructions, unlike other proxy data reconstructions based on dubious  tree ring analyses.

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October 4, 2024 at 03:36AM

Never-Ending Story: Why Wind & Solar Wouldn’t Exist Without Massive Subsidies

The combined cost of renewable energy certificates, tax credits, soft loans and other subsidies is staggering. The total cost of which always lands with the power consumer and/or taxpayer, with the wholly unjustified benefits pocketed by crony capitalists, carpetbaggers and rent-seekers.

The subsidised wind and solar scam has been running full throttle for more than 25 years, with no end in sight. The metric is quite simple: remove the subsidies, mandates and targets and so-called wind and solar ‘industries’ would disappear overnight.

In the piece below, Jonathan Lesser traces the history of wind and solar subsidies in the US and why every dollar shovelled into the occasional generation of electricity is a dollar wasted.

Do Green Energy Subsidies Work?
Real Clear Energy
Jonathan Lesser
3 September 2024

Like the Jeopardy! game show, green energy subsidies have been Congress’ answer to every energy policy question. The first OPEC oil embargo of 1973-74 catalyzed decades of energy policy, including the formation of the Department of Energy.

Wind, solar, and hydropower subsidies began in earnest with the Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act of 1978. Similarly, subsidies for corn-based ethanol were enacted as part of the National Energy Conservation Policy Act of 1978. Both were designed to reduce the country’s dependence on Middle East oil.

The PURPA subsidies set off a race by independent developers to construct small generating plants whose output electric utilities were required to purchase at administratively set prices. In some cases, the subsidies were independent of how much electricity the plants actually produced, creating the moniker “PURPA machines,” because their real purpose was to extract subsidies; producing electricity was secondary.

The Energy Policy Act of 1992 modified those subsidies, creating a “temporary” production tax credit for wind power and certain types of biomass generation. Congress also enacted an Investment Tax Credit, initially for solar energy, but later extended to all renewables, which could choose between the ITC and the PTC. Although the PTC was supposed to expire in 1999, it has been repeatedly extended and expanded, most recently in the Inflation Reduction Act.

The PTC now includes all zero-emissions generation, including new nuclear plants. Under the IRA, the ITC has been increased, with qualifying green energy investments able to claim a credit of as much as 60% of their construction cost.

Moreover, the IRA extends the PTC and ITC until greenhouse gas emissions from electric generation fall to just 25% of their 2005 levels, after which they will be decreased gradually. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the expected date for reaching that goal is 2048.

The IRA also provides subsidies for “green” hydrogen, that is, hydrogen produced from emissions-free electricity, battery storage facilities, and facilities that capture carbon and bury it underground.

Ethanol subsidies have similarly been extended and increased, with the government now subsidizing various types of biofuels and numerous states enacting clean fuel standards, which, like renewable portfolio standards, require increasing percentages of transportation fuels to be biofuels.

Congress has not been the only institution shoveling subsidies to green energy. Many states have provided their own subsidies, especially the mid-Atlantic states that are forcing ratepayers to purchase electricity from offshore wind projects at prices many times higher than the market. States have also enacted renewable portfolio standards forcing electric utilities to increasing percentages of electricity from renewable sources that would otherwise never be built.

This subsidy smorgasbord is supposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by promoting new clean energy technologies. It’s also supposed to accelerate economic growth by creating new “green” industries and high-paying jobs.

There is little evidence for the former. U.S. energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by almost 20% from 2005 levels primarily because natural gas has supplanted coal as the primary fuel for generating electricity.

Between 2005 and 2023, electricity generation from natural gas was six times greater than generation from wind and solar combined. In 2023 alone, electricity generated using natural gas was three times greater than wind and solar generation.

Moreover, growth in subsidized wind and solar generation has distorted wholesale electric markets, begetting the need for subsidies to ensure existing nuclear plants continue operating, lest their owners shutter them and eliminate thousands of high-paying jobs. Enacting subsidies required to offset the distortions caused by other subsidies is surely one definition of economic insanity.

As for spurring new industries and economic growth, today, the U.S. solar manufacturing industry is moribund, with almost 90% of the solar panels installed in this country now produced in China. All but one of the offshore wind projects under construction or slated to be built are owned by European companies that their respective governments control.

The economic costs of these subsidies are borne by taxpayers, who must finance the additional deficit spending; electric ratepayers who, despite claims that renewable energy resources are less costly than traditional generating resources, have seen their electric rates soar; and drivers, who pay more for gasoline and diesel fuel as refineries have closed or been modified to produce subsidized biofuels.

Those higher costs for electricity and transportation fuels raise the costs of producing and distributing almost everything else, which ripples through the entire economy, reducing economic growth and destroying jobs.

As for green energy subsidies spurring the development of new, lower-cost clean technologies, there is nothing new about wind and solar generation that receives the lion’s share of subsidies. After almost half a century, neither are cost-competitive, especially when the additional costs of addressing their inherent intermittency are included—costs that others must pay. And new technologies, such as direct air capture of carbon, will only be commercially viable if the U.S. imposes carbon taxes of several hundred dollars per ton, which few politicians will be willing to do.

The overwhelming majority of green energy subsidies reward politically powerful constituencies and businesses whose primary purpose is not to build better energy mousetraps but to build only ones that qualify for the largest subsidies.

The government could instead target subsidies solely on true research and development efforts of new clean energy technologies, such as advanced and small modular nuclear reactors.

With the country deeply in debt, wasting hundreds of billions of dollars on subsidies for green energy, as the Inflation Reduction Act calls for, is an idea whose time is long past. Green energy Jeopardy! may be a lucrative game for the lucky recipients, but eventually everyone loses.
Real Clear Energy

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October 4, 2024 at 02:31AM

1-Minute Junking: Hurricane Helene flooding ‘unprecedented’?

Related links: NBC News article | Red Cross Relief for Hurricane Helene | Hurricane Helene science video | Washington Post article

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October 4, 2024 at 01:52AM