Essay by Eric Worrall

But lets ignore the obvious solution.

Why we need to talk about older people and climate change in Africa

Published: September 30, 2024 6.28pm AEST

Gary Haq
Senior Research Fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York

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By 2050, older adults in Africa are projected to face significantly higher heat exposure due to rapid population growth and climate change, with an increase in extreme heat events. This will heighten health risks and put pressure on local services, especially in low-income areas with limited ability to cope with the strain.

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Urgent strategies are therefore needed to protect older people from extreme weather such as heatwaves. These include cooling infrastructure (air conditioning) and early warning systems that tell older people when it is getting dangerously hot. Climate change adaptation plans must be integrated with policies on ageing to protect older people.

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In Africa, older people are at greater risk because  the continent has limited basic infrastructure. This is especially the case in rural areas, where access to healthcare, clean water and emergency services is often poor. Poverty, living alone, and depending on small-scale farming make them even more susceptible to extreme weather.

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… social protection systems such as cash transfer programmes must be improved to give financial help to vulnerable older people. Programmes that provide direct support and jobs in projects that protect against climate impacts are also a good idea.

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Read more: https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-talk-about-older-people-and-climate-change-in-africa-239107

I’ll give Gary Haq half marks for mentioning air conditioning. It is pretty courageous these days for an academic to suggest energy expenditure can help solve a social problem.

But overlooking the obvious solution to funding that air conditioning, the solution which worked in the West, is just disappointing.

The only genuine solution to Africa’s money problems is capitalist prosperity. And the only route to lasting capitalist prosperity in today’s world is fossil fuel powered industrialisation and trade with other nations.

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Another good monsoon for India:

MUMBAI (Reuters) – India’s monsoon rainfall this year was its highest since 2020, with above-average precipitation for three consecutive months, helping the country recover from last year’s drought, the state-run weather department said on Monday.

India’s annual monsoon provides almost 70% of the rain it needs to water farms and replenish reservoirs and aquifers, and is the lifeblood of a nearly $3.5 trillion economy. Without irrigation, nearly half of Indian farmland depends on the rains that usually run from June to September.

Rainfall over the country from June through September was 107.6% of its long period average, the highest since 2020, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

India received 11.6% more rainfall than average in September, following 9% and 15.3% above-average rainfall in July and August respectively, the IMD data showed.

Above-average rainfall in September, arising from a delayed monsoon withdrawal, damaged some summer-sown crops like rice, cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses in certain regions of India.

However, the rains may also enhance soil moisture, benefiting the planting of winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpea.

India badly needed good rainfall in 2024 after its driest year in five years in 2023, which depleted reservoir levels and trimmed production of some crops. This forced New Delhi to impose curbs on exports of rice, sugar and onions.

Rainfall distribution was generally good, which helped farmers expand areas under most crops, said Ashwini Bansod, vice president, commodities research at Phillip Capital India.

“This means we could have larger harvests of some summer-sown crops, potentially helping the government to relax trade restrictions in certain cases,” she said.

India on Saturday lifted curbs on exports of non-basmati white rice. That came a day after New Delhi cut export duty on parboiled rice to 10%, buoyed by a new crop in the offing and higher inventories in state warehouses.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/indias-monsoon-rains-hit-four-121413615.html

A wetter than normal monsoon is always good news for India. It is a boost for the whole economy. As well as the obvious benefits for agriculture, it also fills the reservoirs, increasing hydro power.

This year, rainfall was 7.6% above average during the monsoon season, June to September:

https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/rainfall_time_series.php

Reuters refer to last year’s “drought”, but rainfall was actually well within the normal range. In India they only classify below 90% of average as drought. As the chart below shows, there have been no severe droughts for several years.

Droughts tend to be associated with El Nino, as in 2015.

One long period of severe drought stands out, the 1960s to 80s, which was directly linked to global cooling. This episode was part of the wider drought belt, which extended from the Sahel in Africa, across the Middle East as through India as far as China.

In contrast, global warming between the 1920s and 40s brought plentiful rain for India.

Overview

Solar Cycle 25 is nearing its solar maximum and – as is typical during this phase of a solar cycle – there has been a lot of solar activity in recent weeks with numerous sunspots. The strongest solar flare yet during this current solar cycle took place earlier today with an explosion originating from sunspot region known officially as “AR3842”. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded today’s blast as an X9.0 (where X-class denotes the most intense flares) and it may result in widespread auroras this weekend as the “coronal mass ejection” strikes Earth.

Details

Solar flares are powerful bursts of energy which can impact radio communications, electric power grids, navigation signals and pose risks to spacecraft and astronauts. Today’s solar flare – the strongest yet for Solar Cycle 25 – peaked at 8:18 AM (ET) and was captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory as a bright flash. Today’s flare is classified as an X9.0 flare where X-class denotes the most intense type.

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth’s atmosphere according to spaceweather.com triggering shortwave radio blackouts over Africa and Europe, the sunlit portion of Earth at the time of eruption. The shortwave radio blackouts experienced over Europe and Africa were a result of the radiation from the solar flare reaching Earth and ionizing the upper atmosphere upon arrival. This ionization creates a denser environment for high-frequency shortwave radio signals, which facilitate long-distance communication, to travel through. As these radio waves pass through ionized (electrically charged) layers, they lose energy due to increased collisions with electrons which can weaken or entirely absorb the radio signals. 

Preliminary coronagraph images show a “halo” coronal mass ejection or CME – a plume of plasma and magnetic field – emerging from the blast site which is likely to strike the Earth on Sunday, October 6th. As a result, auroras are on the table this weekend in the usual northern latitude areas and potentially farther to the south compared to normal. A couple of days ago on October 1st, there was an X7.1 class solar flare that originated from the same sunspot region and its associated CME is closing in on Earth and likely to arrive by tomorrow, October 4th, potentially causing a strong geomagnetic storm.

This uptick in solar activity during the past several weeks comes as Solar Cycle 25 near its maximum phase which is likely to be reached sometime in 2025. Solar Cycle 25 began during December of 2019 and is expected to continue until around 2030. The cycle is characterized by the sun’s transition from a relatively calm state to one that is active and then back to quiet again…often over about an 11-year time period. There has not been a single day in 2024 or 2023 that featured a spotless sun and only one such day took place in 2022. During the last solar minimum phase in 2019, there were 281 spotless days which made up 77% of the year.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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