Nunraw Abbey DCNN1684 – Another unfortunate waste of a potentially good site.

56.92115 -2.65364 Met Office CIMO Assessed Class 4 Installed 1/1/1971

I have to admit that when I saw the name of this weather station I did a double take – apparently it derives from a few small houses for Nuns and was “Nun’s Raw” or Row. Curiously a similar derivation to the row of small houses on the heath becoming Heathrow before the aircraft took over.

The site is more usually known as the Sancta Maria Abbey though the Nunraw description seems to have been recently adopted by the Cistercian Monks themselves. The Abbey is near Haddington to the east of Edinburgh. Although the CEDA archives show this East Lothian site starting from 1971, the Scottish Red Book of Meterological records has a whole section devoted to “Haddington” with no less than 7 noted sites. I cannot determine whether or not, nor indeed if so, which one it was, but it seems likely that there has been some form of weather station readings here long prior to 1971 possibly as far back as 100 years before then.

The site is marked down as Class 4 by the Met Office presumably on shading grounds. The tecnnical “exclusion” zone for artificial heat sources to meet Class 2 is a 30 metre radius and this site does actually meet that requirement.

For reasons known only to the Met Office inspectors, these types of rural site are always treated quite harshly. Whilst I personally always feel such enclosed areas cannot be truly representative of a wider area, then they should also not be considered worse than a jet blast screen and plastisol cladding enclosed Heathrow site alongside a major road and the small matter of one of the world’s largest Urban heat islands and airports. Again the obvious question – is this site worse than Heathrow? Obviously not so either Nunraw’s classification is wrong or, more likely, the Heathrow class 3 status is way off the mark. {Talkshop note: Will be shortly publishing evidence from Dr. Eric Huxter that indicates, from a statistical viewpoint, that Heathrow should be regarded as Class 5 from its performance characteristics}

The likely case with Nunraw Abbey is that its readings should be good enough to meet Class 3 as none of the 22 google historic images from various times of year going back to 1985 indicate any shade from the trees. The sole potential markdown I can see would be the windbreak effect of those trees, perhaps Class 4 is technically correct, but that would imply many superior assessed sites (nearly always urban ones) are over generously marked higher.

The next issue of observation, however, lets this site down terribly. Although the daily routine of 9:00 a.m. readings seem to be reasonably well adhered to by attending the screen, actually taking down the numbers correctly seems to be a problem for the observers. To derive a daily average requires both a minimum and maximum readings, if either reading is missing nothing can be done and the day’s temperature data is largely wasted. All Met Office screens are now equipped with PRTs including those manually read. These stations do not actually require PRTs as they do not electronically transmit readings. I believe the changeover was for uniformity {more in Dr Huxter’s report to follow}. It is quite noticeable that some manual sites’ observers around the country have problems with operating these systems for maxima whilst being comfortable with the traditional LIGs still used for minima. The Floors Castle observer helpfully demonstrates taking readings in this Youtube clip. Clearly this is not a difficult task but, as with everything, training is required.

Below is a typical example from the archives showing the problems at Nunraw – column I is maximum temperature reading and J minimum. “NA” indicates no reading available, dates when no visit was made such as the first to fifth of March are not shown at all. Both failure to attend and lack of a reading when visited are thus separately recorded/omitted and sometimes even both!

Studying recent years shows the following number of days where one or other readings were missing or no visit made – 2017 – 70 days, 2018 – 63 days, 2019 -142 days, 2020 – 222 days, 2021 – 214 days, 2022 – 31 days, 2023 – 78 days. It is unlikely that Covid 19 restrictions should have caused issues in a monastic environment and years both prior and after are still notably poor.

In this instance the ultimate responsible authority is the Met Office. If they cannot supply adequate advice or training to ensure reliably taking readings then there really is no realistic point in the exercise, partial readings are largely useless despite the Met Office’s remarkable abilities in deriving absurd annual averages from them as at places such as at Mickleham and Hartpury.

Sadly yet again, a weather station such as Nunraw Abbey which should have been a useful source of reliable data is just another waste of expense and time. Sinking the ship for an happorth o’ tar.

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June 1, 2025 at 01:59PM

Again, There is No Right to a Stable Climate

Announced this week was this from Inside Climate News: Trump Executive Orders Violate Young People’s Rights to a Stable Climate, a Lawsuit Alleges.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

Twenty-two young people from across the country sued the
Trump administration over the executive orders,
which prioritize the expansion of fossil fuels.

The complaint, filed Thursday in the U.S. District Court in Montana, challenges three executive orders: “Unleashing American Energy,” “Declaring a National Energy Emergency” and “Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industry.” The lawsuit argues that with the orders, the Trump administration knowingly is advancing an agenda that will increase greenhouse gas pollution that already is stressing the global climate to a dangerous extent.

The litigation argues the situation infringes on the young people’s constitutional rights to life and liberty, as well as falling afoul of other laws approved by Congress that protect public health and the environment. The plaintiffs want the court to declare the executive orders unconstitutional, block their implementation and reaffirm the legal limits on presidential power.

“From day one of the current administration, President Trump has issued directives to increase fossil fuel use and production and block an energy transition to wind, solar, battery storage, energy efficiency, and electric vehicles (“EVs”),” the lawsuit states. “President Trump’s EOs falsely claim an energy emergency, while the true emergency is that fossil fuel pollution is destroying the foundation of Plaintiffs’ lives.”

It’s the same argument from the same people (Our Children’s Trust) that was shot down in flames just a year ago.  There were multiple attempts to undo the damaged legal maneuver to no avail.  Below is why this latest litigation should be put out of its misery at once.

 Appeals Court Rules Against Kids’ Climate Lawsuit, May 1, 2024

Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals grants Federal government’s petition for writ of mandamus in the case of Juliana v. United States, originally filed in 2015.  Ruling excerpts are below in italics with my bolds. 20240501_docket-24-684_order

In the underlying case, twenty-one plaintiffs (the Juliana plaintiffs) claim that—by failing to adequately respond to the threat of climate change—the government has violated a putative “right to a stable climate system that can sustain human life.” Juliana v. United States, No. 6:15-CV-01517-AA, 2023 WL 9023339, at *1 (D. Or. Dec. 29, 2023). In a prior appeal, we held that the Juliana plaintiffs lack Article III standing to bring such a claim. Juliana v. United States, 947 F.3d 1159, 1175 (9th Cir. 2020). We remanded with instructions to dismiss on that basis. Id. The district court nevertheless allowed amendment, and the government again moved to dismiss. The district court denied that motion, and the government petitioned for mandamus seeking to enforce our earlier mandate. We have jurisdiction to consider the petition. See 28 U.S.C. § 1651. We grant it.

In the prior appeal, we held that declaratory relief was “not substantially likely to mitigate the plaintiffs’ asserted concrete injuries.” Juliana, 947 F.3d at 1170. To the contrary, it would do nothing “absent further court action,” which we held was unavailable. Id. We then clearly explained that Article III courts could not “step into the[] shoes” of the political branches to provide the relief the Juliana plaintiffs sought. Id. at 1175. Because neither the request for declaratory relief nor the request for injunctive relief was justiciable, we “remand[ed] th[e] case to the district court with instructions to dismiss for lack of Article III standing.” Id. Our mandate was to dismiss.

The district court gave two reasons for allowing amendment. First, it concluded that amendment was not expressly precluded. Second, it held that intervening authority compelled a different result. We reject each.
The first reason fails because we “remand[ed] . . . with instructions to dismiss for lack of Article III standing.” Id. Neither the mandate’s letter nor its spirit left room for amendment. See Pit River Tribe, 615 F.3d at 1079.

The second reason the district court identified was that, in its view, there was an intervening change in the law. District courts are not bound by a mandate when a subsequently decided case changes the law. In re Molasky, 843 F.3d 1179, 1184 n.5 (9th Cir. 2016). The case the court identified was Uzuegbunam v. Preczewski, which “ask[ed] whether an award of nominal damages by itself can redress a past injury.” 141 S. Ct. 792, 796 (2021). Thus, Uzuegbunam was a damages case which says nothing about the redressability of declaratory judgments. Damages are a form of retrospective relief. Buckhannon Bd. & Care Home v. W. Va. Dep’t of Health & Human Res., 532 U.S. 598, 608–09 (2001). Declaratory relief is prospective. The Juliana plaintiffs do not seek damages but seek only prospective relief. Nothing in Uzuegbunam changed the law with respect to prospective relief.

We held that the Juliana plaintiffs lack standing to bring their claims and told the district court to dismiss. Uzuegbunam did not change that. The district court is instructed to dismiss the case forthwith for lack of Article III standing, without leave to amend.

Background July 2023: Finally, a Legal Rebuttal on the Merits of Kids’ Climate Lawsuit

As reported last month, the Oregon activist judge invited the plaintiffs in Juliana vs US to reopen that case even after the Ninth Circuit shot it down.  Now we have a complete and thorough Motion from the defendant (US government) to dismiss this newest amended complaint.  Most interesting is the section under the heading starting on page 30.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Plaintiffs’ Claims Fail on the Merits

Because Plaintiffs’ action fails at the jurisdictional threshold, the Ninth Circuit never reached—and this Court need not reach—the merits of the claims. . . Plaintiffs’ second amended complaint, which supersedes the first amended complaint, asserts the same claims that were brought in the first amended complaint, which this Court addressed in orders that the Ninth Circuit reversed. Defendants thus renew their objection that Plaintiffs’ claims fail on the merits and should be dismissed pursuant to Fed. R. Civ. P. 12(b)(6).

A. There is no constitutional right to a stable climate system.

The Supreme Court has repeatedly instructed courts considering novel due process claims
to “‘exercise the utmost care whenever . . . asked to break new ground in this field,’… lest the liberty protected by the Due Process Clause be subtly transformed” into judicial policy preferences. More specifically, the Supreme Court has “regularly observed that the Due Process Clause specially protects those fundamental rights and liberties which are, objectively, ‘deeply rooted in this Nation’s history and tradition.’”  Plaintiffs’ request that this Court recognize an implied fundamental right to a stable climate system contradicts that directive, because such a purported right is without basis in the Nation’s history or tradition.

The proposed right to a “stable climate system” is nothing like any fundamental right ever recognized by the Supreme Court. The state of the climate is a public and generalized issue, and so interests in the climate are unlike the particularized personal liberty or personal privacy interests of individuals the Supreme Court has previously recognized as being protected by fundamental rights.  “[W]henever federal courts have faced assertions of fundamental rights to a ‘healthful environment’ or to freedom from harmful contaminants, they have invariably rejected those claims.”. Plaintiffs’ First Claim for Relief must be dismissed.

B.  Plaintiffs fail to allege a cognizable state-created danger claim.

The First Claim for Relief must also be dismissed because the Constitution does not impose an affirmative duty to protect individuals, and Plaintiffs have failed to allege a cognizable claim under the “state-created danger” exception to that rule.
As a general matter:

[The Due Process Clause] is phrased as a limitation on the State’s power to act, not as a guarantee of certain minimal levels of safety and security. It forbids the State itself to deprive individuals of life, liberty, or property without “due process of law,” but its language cannot fairly be extended to impose an affirmative obligation on the State to ensure that those interests do not come to harm through other means.

Thus, the Due Process Clause imposes no duty on the government to protect persons from harm inflicted by third parties that would violate due process if inflicted by the government.

Plaintiffs contend that the government’s “deliberate actions” and “deliberate indifference” with regard to the dangers of climate change amount to a due process violation under the state-created danger exception.

First, Plaintiffs have identified no harms to their “personal security or bodily integrity” of the kind and immediacy that qualify for the state-created danger exception. . . But here, Plaintiffs allege that general degradation of the global climate has harmed their “dignity, including their capacity to provide for their basic human needs, safely raise families, practice their religious and spiritual beliefs, [and] maintain their bodily integrity” and has prevented them from “lead[ing] lives with access to clean air, water, shelter, and food.”  Those types of harm are unlike the immediate, direct, physical, and personal harms at issue in the above-cited cases.

Second, Plaintiffs identify no specific government actions—much less government actors—that put them in such danger. Instead, Plaintiffs contend that a number of (mostly unspecified) agency actions and inactions spanning the last several decades have exposed them to harm. This allegation of slowly-recognized, long-incubating, and generalized harm by itself conclusively distinguishes their claim from all other state-created danger cases recognized by the Ninth Circuit.

Third, Plaintiffs do not allege that government actions endangered Plaintiffs in particular. . . As explained above, Plaintiffs’ asserted injuries arise from a diffuse, global phenomenon that affects every other person in their communities, in the United States, and throughout the world.

For all these reasons, there is no basis for finding a violation of Plaintiffs’ due process right under the state-created danger doctrine, and Plaintiffs’ corresponding claim must be dismissed.

C. No federal public trust doctrine creates a right to a stable climate system.

Plaintiffs’ Fourth Claim for Relief, asserting public trust claims, should be dismissed for two independent reasons. First, any public trust doctrine is a creature of state law that applies narrowly and exclusively to particular types of state-owned property not at issue here. That doctrine has no application to federal property, the use and management of which is entrusted exclusively to Congress. . .Consequently, there is no basis for Plaintiffs’ public trust claim against the federal government under federal law.

Second, the “climate system” or atmosphere is not within any conceivable federal public trust.

1. No public trust doctrine binds the federal government.

Plaintiffs rely on an asserted public trust doctrine for the proposition that the federal government must “take affirmative steps to protect” “our country’s life-sustaining climate system,” which they assert the government holds in trust for their benefit.  But because any public trust doctrine is a matter of state law only, public trust claims may not be asserted against the federal government under federal law. . . The Supreme Court has without exception treated public trust doctrine as a matter of state law with no basis in the United States Constitution.

2. Any public trust doctrine would not apply to the “climate system” or the atmosphere.

Independently, any asserted public trust doctrine does not help Plaintiffs here. Public trust cases have historically involved state ownership of specific types of natural resources, usually limited to submerged and submersible lands, tidelands, and waterways. . . The climate system or atmosphere is unlike any resource previously deemed subject to a public trust. It cannot be owned and, due to its ephemeral nature, cannot remain within the jurisdiction of any single government. No court has held that the climate system or atmosphere is protected by a public trust doctrine. Indeed, the concept has been widely rejected.

For all these reasons, the Court should dismiss Plaintiffs’ Fourth Claim for Relief.

Background Post Update on Zombie Kids Climate Lawsuits: (Juliana vs. US) (Held vs Montana)

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June 1, 2025 at 12:27PM

Gas Only Explains A Small Part Of Electricity Price Rise

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

We still keep being told that our sky high power prices are due to reliance on gas.

Silly Jilly wrote this in the Guardian a month ago:

One of Labour’s key election promises was to cut energy bills by £300 a year by 2030 while making Britain a “clean energy superpower”.

The job is already halfway complete: renewable energy made up more than half the UK’s electricity for the first time last year. So why does Britain continue to have one of the most expensive electricity markets in the world? Industrial users complain those costs are driving companies out of business and discouraging investment in the UK.

The reason behind Britain’s sky-high wholesale energy costs is simple, according to experts. It is down to Britain’s reliance on gas – the price of which was sent soaring by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – in power plants and home heating.

“Great Britain’s dependency on gas imports has been the most important factor behind higher gas and power prices in the market,” Kate Mulvany, the principal consultant at the energy advisory company Cornwall Insight, said.

Prof Michael Grubb of the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources said in a recent research paper that, although fossil fuels used to be cheaper than renewable energy sources, “that has turned on its head as gas prices shot up and the cost to produce renewables such as wind and solar power has plummeted”.

He said: “If we actually paid the average price of what our electricity now costs to produce, our bills would be substantially cheaper.”

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It was accompanied by a deliberately deceptive graph, purportedly showing how wholesale price trends of electricity closely matched those of gas. The choice of the y-axis means that you could show anything you wanted. And, of course, wholesale prices only make up a minor part of retail prices.

There have been many attempts to unravel these Guardian lies, but here I present a very simple, unambiguous and undeniable analysis which totally shreds such claims.

  1. According to official data, in 2024 the UK used 179 TWh of natural gas for power generation.
  2. At the end of December 2024, the wholesale price of gas was 117 p/therm, or £39.93/MWh.
  3. The value of that gas was therefore £7147 million.
  4. Total electricity supply in 2024 was 303 TWh.
  5. The OFGEM price cap for April to June 2025 was 25.74 p/kWh, excl VAT, giving a retail value of £77992 million.
  6. In addition standing charges add approximately an extra £5 billion for domestic users, plus other users.

We can therefore see that the cost of natural gas only makes up about 8% of the total retail value of electricity.

We can analyse these same numbers using 2019 prices.

  1. The wholesale price of natural gas was typically around 50 p/therm, so the value of gas used in generation was about £3 billion a year; the rise in the price of gas since has therefore added about £4 billion to the cost of electricity.
  2. The OFGEM price cap in 2019 was 17 p/kWh, giving an annual value of £51 billion
  3. In addition, standing charges were approximately £2 billion in 2019, compared to the current £5 billion.
  4. The total retail value of the electricity market would therefore be about £56 billion at 2019 prices.

To summarise, the retail value of electricity has increased from £56 billion to £83 billion. Of this £27 billion increase, only £4 billion is due to gas.

The rest, in one way or another, can be described as “policy costs”. These include renewable subsidies, various system balancing costs, standby capacity and grid upgrades.

But they also include the structure of the marginal pricing mechanism employed, whereby all generators benefit from higher wholesale prices, on the back of higher gas prices.

The answer to all these problems lie with government.

What is certain is that the answer is not building more renewables.


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June 1, 2025 at 12:02PM

Near Normal Arctic Ice End of May 2025

After a sub-par March maximum, in April and now in May 2025, Arctic ice has closed the gap with the 19-year average.

During May the average year loses 1.71 M km2 of ice extent.   MASIE showed 2025 losing slightly more, 1.78 M km2, while SII showed close to average at month end.   Throughout May both MASIE and SII tracked close to the 19 year average with a dipping lower mid month.

The regional distribution of ice extents is shown in the table below.

Region 2025151 Day 151 2025-Ave. 2007151 2025-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 11641897 11739951 -98055 11846659 -204762
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1066232 1010120 56112 1059461 6771
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 941331 872869 68462 894617 46714
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1074738 1065906 8832 1069198 5540
 (4) Laptev_Sea 779394 828746 -49352 754651 24744
 (5) Kara_Sea 736946 831977 -95031 895678 -158732
 (6) Barents_Sea 291895 315440 -23544 323801 -31906
 (7) Greenland_Sea 670528 584085 86443 591919 78609
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 853619 904731 -51112 934257 -80637
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 843914 812776 31138 818055 25859
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1046462 1081957 -35494 1077744 -31282
 (11) Central_Arctic 3216938 3220915 -3977 3230109.43 -13171
 (12) Bering_Sea 73534 115851 -42316 112352.8 -38819
 (13) Baltic_Sea 0 6015 -6015 0 0
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 44702 175668 -130966 83076 -38375

The table shows  major deficits in the Pacific basins of Okhotsk and Bering combined are 173k km2. On the Atlantic side, Kara and Laptev combined to lose 144k km2.  The other regions are a mix of surpluses and deficits giving an overall result about 100k km2 below average or 0.8%.

Why is this important?  All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher  temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.  The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post April 2025 UAH Temps Little Changed For Now.

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update

Also, a longer term perspective is informative:

post-glacial_sea_level

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June 1, 2025 at 10:51AM