Why Blackouts are no longer rare events…and how this effects energy security

Lars Schernikau: Energy Economist, Commodity Trader, Author (recent book “The Unpopular Truth… about Electricity and the Future of Energy”)

Details inc Blog at www.unpopular-truth.com

On April 28, 2025, the lights went out across Spain and Portugal, and just four days later, the island of Bali was wrapped into darkness.

In both cases, it happened in seconds. No war. No cyberattack. No act of nature. Just the hard truth of how today’s energy systems can wobble and break!

But let´s be honest… what happened in Spain, Portugal, and Bali isn’t just their problem. It’s our preview… a warning.

Power outages used to be rare, localized, and manageable. But not anymore. What happened in Spain, Portugal, and Bali in April 2025 was caused by fragile systems operating under idealistic assumptions.

In this article, I unpack what really triggered these cascading failures, what they reveal about the state of our energy infrastructure, and why grid reliability should now be considered a global security issue and not just a technical one.

Are we making the grid is becoming more fragile…

Our daily lives depend on a constant, hum of electricity, which is what keeps our cities moving, data flowing, phones ringing and healthcare running. But the grid that delivers it, was not built for what we are now throwing at it now.

Worldwide, we are adding more solar, wind, and complex transmission and network integration than ever before, while removing the coal, gas, and nuclear plants that gave us the resilience we are used to when it comes to our energy systems. The result? A grid that’s becoming a lot more fragile and less reliable.

Spain’s blackout was a textbook case. Just 15% of its generation came from dispatchable, rotating-mass sources like gas and nuclear which is the backbone of a stable AC grid. The rest, came from inverter-based energy generation from solar and wind. When two large solar plants tripped offline, it set off a chain reaction. The system began to oscillate as inertia disappeared and in just five seconds, the system collapsed.

Officially, “only” 60% of demand was lost. But in reality, almost the entire country went dark.

It’s not just the lack of sunshine…it’s the inverters

This isn’t about whether wind and solar are “good” or “bad” but rather about what happens when we ignore physics.

Wind and solar energy need inverters to be fed into the grid. Unlike traditional generators, these inverters don’t provide inertia or sufficient short-circuit strength… it worse, because they introduce electrical “noise” that can interfere with the grid’s waveform. As more inverters pile in, the risk of desynchronization increases.

It’s akin to an orchestra without a conductor attempting to perform a symphony by ear, inside a large shed with a tin roof, during a thunderstorm. The performance is bound to start off poorly, and a complete breakdown is inevitable.

A quick run-down…Grid-following inverters chase the existing frequency, but can’t lead. Grid-forming inverters try to lead but only work well in isolated systems, not big interconnected ones. Batteries? In theory, yes but in practice, there is no proven large-scale success thus far.

Spain, Bali, Chile, Ukraine, Texas, Bangladesh…

What happened in Spain and Bali isn’t isolated. It’s just recent.

Chile also saw a massive blackout in 2025 and Ukraine’s grid was targeted by hackers…twice! Bangladesh, Pakistan, Argentina, and India have all experienced nationwide Blackouts in the last decade. In Texas in 2021, millions froze in the dark when cold weather crushed an overconfident system.

Yes, the causes of these Blackouts vary: cyberattacks, system design flaws, underinvestment, political choices, extreme weather. But for now, let’s address the false assumption that “clean” automatically means “stable” energy. Read more on my blog

The bigger picture: Security, Reliability, Reality

We need to be honest with ourselves… wind and solar alone can’t provide energy security. Not today. Maybe not ever without massive redesigns.

We have leaned too hard on brittle inverter-based systems and we’ve treated energy like a lifestyle choice instead of the critical infrastructure support it is.

The path forward should be an energy mix, designed with eyes open.

• invest in dispatchable, weather-independent generation (yes, that includes gas, coal, and nuclear)
• consider reserve margins that reflect real risk, not best-case scenarios
• plan for blackouts…because they are most likely coming
• recognize that physics does not negotiate…either the system works, or it doesn’t

What now?

I was asked recently: “What can we do?”

Here my simple advice:

• Personally: Prepare for 3-5 days by stocking up on water, food, light, power backups. No one’s coming to save you in hour one
• Professionally: Push for systems thinking rather than designing for optics. Start designing systems that supply us with stable, affordable energy simultaneously protecting the environment
• Politically: Demand realistic energy policy and not slogans

Let’s start envisioning the grid of the future designed to grow with our energy needs.

Read my full blog post – Blackouts, what causes them? share it if it makes sense, push back if you disagree…but don’t ignore it. 😉