FERC Finally Wakes Up

By Michael McKenna

At their February public meeting, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a Section 206 petition, which argued that the PJM tariff is unjust or unreasonable (or both, I suppose) because it doesn’t include rules that allow for locating generation sources near or at data centers.

Let me commend FERC for finally engaging on the crucial issue of how we might be able to power the data centers which will be essential to the United States’ efforts to win the artificial intelligence race. Welcome to the fray.

Let me also commend FERC for issuing the equivalent of a vote of no confidence in an organized market. I’m not sure it is the first such vote, but it is definitely the first time that FERC has acknowledged that an organized market may be able to meet the challenge posed by an absolute requirement for the construction of more power and more reliable power in a prompt manner.

The Section 206 issued to PJM is an acknowledgment that the current regulatory model is unlikely to produce the results that the nation needs in this moment; that PJM, as currently configured, is not likely to lead to the building of enough generation in time.

What makes it worse for PJM is that the Commission is not the only one who has lost confidence. In January, in the wake of last Summer’s auction where prices jumped 800%, Governor Shapiro in Pennsylvania decided that PJM needed more generation. Mr. Shapiro warned in a January open letter to PJM that price escalation “threatens to undermine public confidence in PJM as an institution.”

In response to his letter, PJM wrote that it had long warned about potential supply shortfalls during periods of high demand, blaming “state and federal policy decisions that are pushing generators to retire prematurely” and “unprecedented and rapidly growing data center construction.”  In short, the problem was that customers were actually starting to ask for generation from generators.

PJM ultimately energetically argued that that the “market” would take care of the problem. Just kidding. What really happened is that PJM quickly folded and set a price cap for its next two capacity auctions.

The Section 206 petition filed by the Commission is a bit more comprehensive than the back and forth between Governor Shapiro and the hopelessly outmatched PJM. For those of you who think it is liable to be fixed quickly, the Commission’s petition wrapped up with 6 single-spaced pages of questions (39 questions in total) to the world. They varied in complexity from simple questions that can’t be answered (“Please explain whether the existing Tariff rules are sufficient to ensure resource adequacy if increasing numbers of large existing generators choose to co-locate with load.”) to complicated questions that won’t be answered (“Please explain whether or not it would be appropriate to establish an interconnection study outside of PJM’s interconnection queue process for newly interconnecting co-location arrangements . . . “).

We’ve been at this question of data center demand for more than a year now and are just getting around to asking questions that get near the core of the problem, which is, of course, that many places generally, and PJM specifically, appear to have given up completely on building generation, no matter how loud the message from the capacity market gets.

The original sin is, as always, that no one seems to be responsible for reliability. Generators aren’t, otherwise they would be building powerplants. The people who run PJM aren’t; they weren’t elected or appointed by anyone and therefore are not accountable to anyone in particular. The capacity markets are obviously not getting the job done either.

The demand driven by data centers – and the urgency to win the artificial intelligence race now – has exposed the flaws in the slow, sclerotic, self-absorbed system. FERC and its progeny in Valley Forge are completely happy to live in their co-dependent relationship, tossing pieces of paper back and forth to one another.

For the rest of us, though, winning the race to the commanding economic and national security heights of the next three generations is too important to be left to organizations that can’t even decide who might be in charge of system reliability, and whose sense of urgency and clarity results in six pages worth of questions, the answers to which will spawn even more questions and the inevitable litigation.

The system is broken. It is not going to be fixed by pretending that FERC orders get powerplants built.

What we need – and are not likely to get from a FERC-driven process – is some sort of variance or off-ramp to our current approaches that allow builders and their customers to build generation (and buy power) without having to wander through the maze of rules, customs, and folkways embedded in some organized markets.

Until we get something that looks like that, we will continue to struggle with reliability, with costs, and with concerns about our national competitiveness.

Michael McKenna, president of MWR Strategies, advises utilities, merchant generators, and transmission companies. He was deputy director of the White House Office of Legislative Affairs under President Trump. 

This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.


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March 29, 2025 at 04:02PM

More on German Dunkelflautes

In previous post, I was looking for two Dunkelflautes (periods of low wind and not much sunshine) in the German grid data. I looked specifically into the first half of November 2024 and around half December 2024, this because it was reported that Dunkelflautes occurred in those two periods.

A commonly used definition of a Dunkelflaute is a period with a daily production of less than 10% of installed capacity. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the exact capacity information for November and December 2024. A LinkedIn post that analyzed Dunkelflautes in Germany used the installed capacity of the beginning of the year and found 12 consecutive days in November and 3 consecutive days in December. I redid that analysis but with the installed capacity at the end of 2024 (which should be more appropriate for the end of the year) and found 14 consecutive days in November and 4 consecutive days in December.

The actual number of Dunkelflaute days will depend on how much capacity was available at the end of 2024. When all the new capacity came available in the second half of December, then that would be 12 days in November and 3 days in December, as found in the LinkedIn post. When that capacity was already available at the beginning of November, then that would be 14 days in November and 4 in December. When some of that capacity was coming available in November or December, then that would be something in between, depending on how much capacity still had to come available at the end of the year.

I limited myself in previous post to just those two date ranges, but the winter period in general is known for having Dunkelflaute events, so that made me wonder how frequent these occur. So, let’s just extend the same analysis from November 2024 until now.

The Agora data from 1 November 2024 until 28 March 2025 (when I finalize this post) gives this:

Chart29b: Dunkelflautes Germany 1 November 2024 - 28 March 2025

(click the image to enlarge to see it more clear and with some extra details)

I used the installed capacity at the end of 2024 for the entire period (November 2024 → March 2025) in my calculation. Also here, the actual number of Dunkelfaute days in the first three months of 2025 will depend on how much capacity came available. When there was already new capacity available in that period, then there might be more days having less production than the 10% threshold than what I calculated.

The longest Dunkelflaute is still the one of the first half of November 2024. There were however more periods than I expected. I count 14 periods with a production of less than 10% of installed capacity, of which 5 are single day and 9 spanned consecutive days:

Dunkelflautes in Germany
1 November 2024 → 28 March 2025
  Start date End date Duration
(days)
1 02 Nov 2024 15 Nov 2024 14
2 29 Nov 2024 29 Nov 2024 1
3 04 Dec 2024 04 Dec 2024 1
4 10 Dec 2024 13 Dec 2024 4
5 24 Dec 2024 29 Dec 2024 6
6 04 Jan 2025 04 Jan 2025 1
7 12 Jan 2025 13 Jan 2025 2
8 15 Jan 2025 22 Jan 2025 8
9 01 Feb 2025 06 Feb 2025 6
10 13 Feb 2025 17 Feb 2025 5
11 25 Feb 2025 01 Mar 2025 5
12 10 Mar 2025 14 Mar 2025 5
13 24 Mar 2025 24 Mar 2025 1
14 26 Mar 2025 26 Mar 2025 1

I expected some periods of Dunkelflaute, but not that many! From the 148 days between 1 November 2024 and 28 March 2025, there were 60 days with a daily production of less than 10% of the installed capacity. That is 40% of the days in the period. That is much more than I expected. The average capacity factor was only 11.8% over the entire period. This in a period of the year when demand is at its highest.

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March 29, 2025 at 02:15PM

Tropical timings – Earth’s obliquity and more

axial tilt or obliquity
Obliquity, or tilt, is the third of Earth’s three main orbital variations.

From the two previous posts on precession (here) and eccentricity (here), a diagram (here) was produced showing relationships of these orbital parameters of the Earth in numerical terms, using simple ratios. A Great Precession Cycle (GPC) was also identified and defined.

To add obliquity, which is often given in science papers as ’41 kyr’, we propose 10 per long eccentricity cycle (LEC):
412344 / 10 = 41234.4 tropical years (TY). The GPC is then equivalent to 10 obliquities + 10 axial precessions:
(41234.4 + 25771.5) * 10 = 670059 TY (1079*621).

This gives obliquity a 10:16 (= 5:8) ratio with the axial precession (AP) cycle in the period of one LEC, so the 5:8 ratio repeats every half LEC (207*996 TY). See also Conclusion below, with its diagram of ratios relating to obliquity (click on image to enlarge).

23 kyr
The period of the 3 (8-5) harmonics of obliquity and AP is:
(41234.4*5)/3 = 68724 TY or 69*996 TY. This can be split into 3 parts of ’23 kyr’ each, i.e. 23*996 = 22098 TY. Therefore 5 obliquity = 8 axial precessions = 9*23 kyr in half LEC (meaning 23 kyr = LEC/18).
Note: the sum of PP and AP = 6*23 kyr exactly = LEC/3.

19 kyr
This period derives from perihelion precession (PP) and 23 kyr.
PP = 111676.5 TY (see here)
23 kyr = 22908 TY
(PP*23 kyr) / (PP+23 kyr) = 19008.765 TY (19 kyr)
Ratio PP:23kyr:19kyr = 8:39(3*13):47(8+39)
It follows: (23 kyr*19 kyr) / (23 kyr+19 kyr) = PP

124 kyr
This period, sometimes called 123 or 125 kyr, is often quoted in science papers discussing Earth’s orbital parameters, e.g. J.Rial (see eccentricity post) says: ‘(Fig. 1C) shows evidence of frequency modulation as the observed 75- and 123-ky peaks coincide with the predicted sidebands of a 95-ky carrier frequency-modulated by a 413-ky signal.’

The two eccentricity cycles have a ratio of 3:13. The sub-harmonic is 0.3 LEC = 1.3 SEC with a difference of 1 in 1/10th (13-3=10) of the full period.
1/10th of 3 LEC = 3 obliquities = 41234.4*3 = 123703.2 TY (aka 124 kyr).

Conclusion
If obliquity:axial precession ratio is 5:8, that’s 3 (8-5) beats per 13 (8+5) axial periods = 3:13 beat:axial ratio. The periods of each are 1/6 LEC for beats and 1/6 SEC for axials, and LEC:SEC = 3:13. The beat periods are 3*23 kyr each. The ratio of the two precessions, perihelion and axial, is also 3:13.

Of course for the 3:13 ratios of both the precession and eccentricity pairs it’s the other way round…10 (13-3) beats and 16 (13+3) axial is a ratio of 10:16 = 5:8 = obliquity:axial precession.

Note: 3,5,8 and 13 are Fibonacci numbers, ‘a sequence in which each element is the sum of the two elements that precede it’ and which is ‘strongly related to the golden ratio’ (Wikipedia). Some of the periods are variable within limits, so the diagrams are intended to relate to mean values.
– – –
Image: Earth’s Axial Tilt, or Obliquity [credit: Wikipedia]

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March 29, 2025 at 12:17PM

Climate Activists Want to Blame Americans’ Soaring Utility Bills on Anything but Green Energy

From THE DAILY CALLER

Daily Caller News Foundation

Audrey Streb
Contributor

A coalition of Massachusetts climate activist groups sent a letter to government officials on March 18, in response to high utility costs concerning energy bills, though several renewable energy projects in the state have been driving up utility costs in the area for years.

Six environmental activist organizations, including Sierra Club Massachusetts and HEETlabs, sent the letter to Democratic Gov. Maura Healey and Energy and Environmental Affairs Secretary Rebecca Tepper. The letter included calls for provisions to lower energy bills.

Massachusetts has historically supported several expensive green energy projects that have been found to raise utility costs, including offshore wind farms like Vineyard Wind and the abandoned Cape Wind project. The Bay State plans to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, a goal also championed by the Biden administration to the tune of $3 trillion.

“The sharp spikes in heating bills throughout the Commonwealth in January and February have been a financial shock and burden to customers,” the letter opens. “This spike has caused real pain and has been seized upon by climate deniers and opponents of clean energy.” (RELATED: One Of America’s Priciest Green Boondoggles May Be Going Offline After Sucking Up Subsidies And Incinerating Birds)

Letter on Gas Price Spikes to Maura Healey by Boston 25 Desk

“In 2023 alone, Massachusetts gas customers were charged $160 million to hook up additional buildings to the gas system, an average cost of nearly $10,000 per new customer for infrastructure that only serves those customers,” the letter continues.

The letter demands quicker action on lowering utility bills, outlining the first step as reducing infrastructure spending unless it is “financially appropriate.”

The document also claims that local “gas companies are charging ratepayers for their lobbying, advertising, and other expenses,” through a “loophole.” It also states that under the “reform the obligation to serve” request that “the 2024 climate law indicated that gas utilities can no longer be compelled to serve customers where alternatives to distributed gas are available.”

The letter included steps to lower energy bills, which prompted critics to point to Sierra Club’s expensive energy policy goals. Sierra Club advocates for 100% clean energy by 2050, according to its website. The Institute for Energy Research writes that it would cost trillions of dollars to enact this goal, citing studies from both Wood Mackenzie and American Action Forum, which estimate that this policy, shared with the Green New Deal, is unrealistic and expensive.

“It’s not fast enough to help with energy burden,” Vick Mohanka, the chapter director for Sierra Club’s Massachusetts chapter, told Boston 25 News. “It’s 100% on our bills and we’re paying more profits on this than other states,” she said.

The chapter dubs its state as “a leader” when it comes to “tackling climate change.” The group’s website reads that “Massachusetts has been rated #1 among all states for energy efficiency four years in a row,” and that the state was “one of the first states to pass aggressive climate change goals.”

Sierra Club Massachusetts did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

We need a multi-trillion dollar investment in the infrastructure necessary to weather and avert climate change, not a bipartisan bill with climate deniers. #NoClimateNoDeal. pic.twitter.com/nDEH2Xxchz

— Sierra Club (@SierraClub) June 23, 2021

“Each year, gas utilities spend more than $1 billion to replace aging methane gas pipelines in Massachusetts, costs that are increasingly passed onto consumers in the form of rising delivery rates, meaning some residents are stuck with a $400+ bill even before they use any gas,” a spokesperson for HEETlabs wrote to the DCNF. “Governor Healey and the Massachusetts State Legislature can lower utility costs consumers by reining in this utility spending.”

The spokesperson also pointed to research from Our World in Data, E & E News, Bloomberg, IRENA, Trading Economics and Nuveen that might indicate that renewable energy is a “safe and sustainable” supply of energy.

 A spokesperson for Healey’s office told Boston 25 News that “energy costs are too high in Massachusetts and Governor Healey is focused on bringing them down.”

“Governor Healey has already taken action to lower people’s bills by $220 million in March and April, and her plan would save nearly $6 billion for electric and gas customers over the next five years,” they continued. “She also agrees that more needs to be done. Governor Healey will be filing legislation in the coming weeks to lower costs further, and she appreciates everyone’s ideas and advocacy on this important issue.”

The Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs and Healey’s office did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

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March 29, 2025 at 12:01PM