From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Cunningham

It’s Jackanory time at the Met Office:

A groundbreaking study reveals that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could reach unprecedented magnitudes by the end of the century, leading to severe impacts such as increased flooding and storm damage in northern Europe.

The NAO is a large-scale atmospheric pressure see-saw in the North Atlantic and is a key driver of winter weather patterns in the UK, western Europe and eastern USA. It is measured by the gradient between high pressure over the Azores and low pressure over Iceland and controls the strength of the prevailing winds.

The study, led by a team of Met Office climate scientists, identifies climatological water vapour as a significant factor governing differences in long-term fluctuations in the NAO across climate model simulations. The research shows that limitations in the way that current climate models represent water vapour in the atmosphere lead to uncertainty in predictions of the NAO’s future behaviour. Taking account of these limitations reveals a substantial response of the NAO to volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gases.

The findings indicate that under a scenario with very high concentrations of greenhouse gases by the end of the century, the NAO will increase to levels never before seen, posing severe risks of impacts from extreme weather such as flooding and storm damage. However, these impacts could be mitigated through efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Lead author, Dr Doug Smith, emphasized the urgency of the findings: “These findings have major implications for understanding and preparing for extreme weather events. Our study suggests that taking model projections at face value could leave society unprepared for impending extremes. Mitigation efforts are crucial to prevent the severe impacts associated with an unprecedented increase in the NAO.”

Key findings from the study include:

• The study shows that some of the differences between model projections of the NAO  is due to climatological water vapour limitations in the models.
• The research reveals the NAO’s significant response to external forcings such as volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gases.
• The study also takes into account the ‘Signal to Noise Paradox’, which suggests that climate models may underestimate the magnitude of the real-world NAO changes.
• The research results underscore the importance of mitigation efforts to avoid severe impacts from an unprecedented increase in the NAO.
• The study highlights the need for improved climate models to better predict future changes in the regional climate.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/significant-climate-change-impacts-paper-nao

No Met Office scare story would be complete without the mandatory demand for us to give up fossil fuels:

“However, these impacts could be mitigated through efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

You might also note the silly scare is based on very high concentrations of greenhouse gases. In other words RCP 8.5 that is universally regarded as impossible.

But back in the real world, the NAO has not become more extreme, “despite” global warming.

https://climexp.knmi.nl/getindices.cgi?WMO=CRUData/nao&STATION=NAO-Gibraltar&TYPE=i&id=someone@somewhere

The NAO has the strongest effect on weather in winter, but again we find none of the extremes claimed by the Met Office, which would surely have become apparent now after 200 years of warming.

https://climexp.knmi.nl/data/inao.dat

This latest piece of nonsense is another example of how the Met Office have lost their reputation for scientific excellence, dumped to pursue a political agenda.

It is time they faced the same sort of cuts that Trump is wisely imposing on NOAA.

You’ve probably heard about the revolution carried out by the new German Chancellor Merz, overturning the 80-year postwar German tradition of fiscal caution by changing the constitution, thus allowing Germany to borrow 500 billion euros to spend on infrastructure and a similarly unimaginable sum on defense.    

As part of the deal, Merz promised the Greens that 100 billion of the €500 billion infrastructure budget would be spent on climate matters. 

The excellent Eugyppius described the insanity of this on his blog a couple days before the Greens accepted the Hundred billion sweetener:

https://www.eugyppius.com/p/on-the-manifold-fractal-screwups

To bring the Greens around, Merz decided to present himself as an avocado – black on the outside, and green on the inside… He told the press: “… much of what we’re proposing – if not almost everything – has already been proposed by the Greens in the last legislative period.” It is like Merz forgot that German voters have televisions. “Support my plan, dear Greens!” he told the press. “It contains everything you want, and everything my constituents oppose!’” … explaining that he would be happy to use the word ‘climate’ more frequently in his justifications for the debt break overhaul if that would get them on board. Amazingly – and you will not believe this – the Greens did not agree… and then they presented their own separate plan to overhaul the debt brake – a more financially conservative proposal than the one Merz and the SPD had hammered out among themselves. Merz now finds himself publicly humiliated and without his trousers, standing on undefended territory to the left of the fucking Green Party … 

[Eugyppius describes himself on X as “a sharp-tongued ex-American prof now living in Germany, dishing out fiery takes on everything from dodgy Covid jabs to migrant mayhem, all while championing free speech and scoffing at climatist nonsense.”]

But wait. Why is Chancellor Merz promising anything to the Greens? They’re not part of his ruling coalition. 

The answer is that Merz is not Chancellor yet. To get his spending programme (which is the precise opposite of everything his party has always stood for) passed, he needs to change the constitution, which requires a two thirds majority, which Merz’s coalition with the Social Democrats won’t have in the parliament that takes over in a few weeks’ time.

But in the present parliament, Merz’s conservatives, plus the governing Social Democrat/Green coalition do have the required two thirds of the votes. So Merz is pushing through the constitutional change in the old parliament, with the votes of MPs who’ve just lost the election, including many Greens.

Imagine if Britain had a similar system, where the old parliament continues to function for months after a new one has been elected. Starmer, on winning the election, could have said to Sunak: “I’ve got all these insane austerity measures I want to pass, that are opposed by the vast majority of my party. Could you push them through for me, then I’ll take over, and be so hated that I guarantee that, come the next election, you’ll be in power for a generation.”  

Meanwhile, the Greens, thrown out of power by the electors, have been awarded a hundred billion euro consolation prize.

You could set up a fair number of NGOs with a hundred billion.