R.I.P. Climate Back Radiation

Beware false and misleading Cartoons.

A brief recent video by Markus Ott explains why the notion of “back radiation” in Earth’s climate should be laid to rest.  I provide a transcript text in italics with my bolds and key exhibits.

Ott/Shula: The second law of thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect

This is the first of a short series of physics videos. This series is intended to be a follow up to Tom Shula’s presentation in which we can take more time to go into the fundamentals and derivations of our results.  Since Tom and I are attacking the foundations of modern climate science,  it makes sense to start with the thermodynamic aspects of the greenhouse effect.

In this video I will not talk about greenhouse gas molecules. I will look at the Green House Effect from the perspective of classical thermodynamics. Classical thermodynamics describes matter as a continuum and does not care about the atomic or molecular structure of matter.  The laws of thermodynamics have proven to be universally valid hypotheses, and theories that contradict the laws of thermodynamics have always proved to be wrong

In connection with the greenhouse effect, the second law of Thermodynamics is particularly interesting.  There are various equivalent formulations for the the second law of thermodynamics which states that thermal energy cannot be completely converted into other forms of energy.  Rudolf Clausius was the first to formulate the second law in the form that heat does not flow spontaneously from cold to hot bodies.  Later in 1865 he developed on that basis the concept of entropy.

Those who believe in thermodynamics categorize this statement as an eternal truth and therefore find it very difficult to understand how the greenhouse effect is supposed to work.  How can the atmosphere which is mostly colder than the Earth’s surface heat the Surface by means of back radiation, and by as much as 33°C?  Greenhouse effect believers like to refer to Carl Schwarzschild’s 1906 paper About the equilibrium of the solar atmosphere to answer this question.

In order to clarify this question of faith we will take a closer look at this much cited and probably rarely read article which was written in a German adequate to a highly educated man.  I posted a manual translation of the text on my substack page.  Without going into the details of his calculations we will look at how Schwarzschild comes to the conclusion that the sun’s atmosphere not only radiates outwards into space but that a significant proportion of radiation is also directed inwards towards the base of the sun’s atmosphere.

Such an inward or downward back radiation can also be measured at the bottom of the Earth’s atmosphere.  This observation is taken as a reason to postulate a similar radiation equilibrium in the Earth’s atmosphere.  The greenhouse effect is said to be the result of that back radiation.

The starting point for Schwarzschild’s article is the observation that the brightness of the visible solar disc is not evenly distributed.  The brightness decreases towards the edge.  The diagram shows the observed brightness distribution as a blue line. Schwarzschild compares two conceivable mechanisms of heat transport through the solar atmosphere in order to determine the cause of this brightness distribution. Heat transport through radiative transfer which requires a radiative equilibrium in the Solar atmosphere, and heat transport by convection with an adiabatic equilibrium in the Solar atmosphere.

He calculates how the brightness distribution on the solar disc should be for these two cases.  Because his results for the radiative equilibrium Orange Line in the diagram matched the observed brightness distribution Blue Line better than his results for the adiabatic equilibrium Gray Line,  he assumes that a radiative equilibrium prevails in the Solar atmosphere. We will disregard his description of the adiabatic equilibrium here, and restrict ourselves to his description of the radiative equilibrium.

Kirchhoff’s law of radiation plays a central role in short Schwarzschild’s model. Kirchhoff’s law of radiation describes the relationship between absorption and emission of a real body in thermal equilibrium.  It states that radiation absorption and emission correspond to each other for a given wavelength.  A body that absorbs well also radiates well.  This can be visualized as follows: We consider a body 2 that is located in a cavity of another body 1. Vacuum prevails in the intermediate space.   If both bodies have the same temperature the radiant power absorbed by Body 2 must be the same as the radiant power emitted by it because otherwise the temperature of body 2 would change.  This means that in thermal equilibrium Kirchhoff’s law of radiation represents a kind of radiation energy conservation law for body 2.

The layout of Schwarzschild’s radiative transfer model of the solar atmosphere is quite simple.  An unknown heat source in the core of the Sun generates heat;  a possible liquid outer core transports this heat by convection to the bottom of the solar atmosphere; the heat is then transported outwards into space solely by radiative transfer.  He does not go any further into the properties of the sun’s core.  He only assumes that the core heats the solar atmosphere evenly at its boundary surface.  It is very important that this heating occurs so evenly that convection currents do not form in the Solar atmosphere.

In Schwarzschild’s model the solar atmosphere is assumed to have the following properties:

♦  the solar atmosphere is stably stratified without convection;
♦  temperature and density increase continuously from the top of the atmosphere to the ground
♦  the vertical profile of temperature temp is smaller than the adiabatic vertical profile;
♦  each layer of the sun’s atmosphere absorbs and emits radiation without loss;
♦  the energy flow which flows from an unknown source inside the Sun through the solar atmosphere into the outer space is in a steady state.

Since a downwelling radiation is also measurable on the ground of Earth’s atmosphere, modern climate science assumes that Schwarzschild’s radiation transfer model is also applicable to our atmosphere.  Now let’s take a look at the applicability of  Schwarzschild’s  model to the Earth’s atmosphere.

It is striking that Schwarzschild has practically constructed his model around Kirchhoff’s law of radiation. He has to make a number of not particularly plausible assumptions in order to create a local thermal equilibrium between the layers of his solar atmosphere.  As mentioned before most of these assumptions serve to prevent convection in his model.  This is critically important because as soon as convection comes into play, the condition of local thermal equilibrium is no longer fulfilled.  The vertical convection currents and the associated turbulence destroy Schwarzschild’s homogeneous stratification of the atmosphere.  Large local temperature jumps occur Kirchhoff’s law of radiation is therefore no longer applicable.

To summarize and formulate this somewhat more abstractly:  In order to create the conditions for Pure radiation transport through the solar atmosphere Schwarzschild must construct an atmosphere with a very high degree of order.  In liquid or gaseous systems even minor disturbances will cause such a state to change into a disordered convective State.  Under convective conditions Kirchhoff’s law of radiation and thus the radiative transfer equation are not valid.

This transition to the convective state takes place with a large entropy gain.  It is therefore spontaneous and irreversible.  Accordingly, there should be no radiative transfer and no greenhouse effect in our troposphere since it is dominated by convection currents.

Look at a volume element under convective conditions such as those that prevail in our troposphere.  The volume element absorbs radiation and converts the radiation energy into heat.  Before it can convert the heat back into radiation it is caught by a convection current and lifted.  This causes it to move into areas with lower ambient pressure.  It expands and performs volume work in the process.  It draws the energy for this volume work from its heat content and therefore cools down.  The amount of heat that the volume element has converted into volume work can no longer be converted back into radiation.  The conservation of radiation energy is therefore no longer given.

Kirchhoff’s law of radiation can no longer be applied to the volume element. The entropy of the volume element increases, the process is irreversible lifting and acceleration.  Work performed by the volume element derives their energy from the heat content of the volume element and also contribute to the irreversibility of radiation absorption under convective conditions.  Global circulations also affect these processes but that will be discussed in another video.

I would like to point out that radiation absorption and emission are irreversible processes.  In themselves the reemission of radiation from an excited molecule occurs randomly in any direction.  This means that the information about the direction of the previously absorbed radiation is lost during emission The emitted Photon transfers part of its momentum to the emitting molecule. Its energy and therefore also its frequency are therefore different from that of the previously absorbed Photon.  Schwarzschild also excludes these effects through his choice of boundary conditions: steady state radiation flux and frequency independence of absorptivity and emission.

In one of my previous videos I made fun about the fact that the 33° greenhouse effect is calculated by assuming that the solar Radiance is homogeneously distributed over the Earth’s surface with 240 W per square meter. Now with a deeper understanding of Schwarzschild’s model we get an idea about the origin of this rather strange assumption.  In his radiation transfer model the base of the solar atmosphere is heated internally and homogenously by the solar core.  This homogeneous heating is very important since an inhomogeneous heating would cause convection which is incompatible with Kirchhoff’s law of radiation and would spoil his model.  In a rather hapless attempt to apply Schwarzschild’s radiation transfer model, the same is done to the externally and unevenly heated surface of the Earth.

To summarize briefly the irreversibility of radiation absorption in air under convective conditions makes back radiation and thus the greenhouse effect impossible.  This statement seems to be in direct contradiction to the observation that a downwelling atmospheric radiation can be measured at the bottom of the Earth’s atmosphere.  The diagram here shows the measured values from a measuring station near Munich.  In the next video I will show that back radiation is not what most people think of it to be, and how it is compatible with the laws of thermodynamics.

The most important takeaway from this video is that Kirchhoff’s law of radiation presents a kind of radiation energy conservation law, and that this radiation energy conservation is not given under convective conditions.  As far as I know all radiation transfer models assume a universal validity of Kirchhoff’s  law of radiation.  The only exception is at very high altitudes where the air molecules only very rarely collide with each other.  Since the results of the radiation transfer models are based on this false basic assumptions,  they are wrong.

That is not to say that Carl Schwarzschild’s work is nonsense.  His original idea is very applicable to transparent systems without convection; for example in the production of large telescope mirrors. The cooling behavior after the glass mass has solidified can be described very well using radiation transfer methods.

Background Paper with complete discussion

Missing Link in the GHE, Greenhouse Effect, by Thomas Shula – Markus Ott,  USA – Germany
2024.

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March 8, 2025 at 03:44PM

Telegraph Fall For The Stranded Asset Con

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Ian Magness

 

Eir Nolsoe claims to be the Telegraph’s Senior Economics Reporter, but she evidently knows nothing about economics.

In an article this week – “Limiting global warming to cost British workers equivalent of £2,600 each”, she falls for Mark Carney’s stranded asset con, writing:

“Net Zero will cost the average British worker the equivalent of almost £2,600 as fossil fuel assets worth billions of pounds become worthless.

So-called “stranded assets” will cost the UK economy £110bn by 2040, analysis by the UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association (UKSIF) shows. The group said this was equal to £2,595 for every working adult in Britain.

The figures reflect the cost of investments in industries like oil and gas that are set to become worthless as the world transitions away from fossil fuels. This includes untapped reserves and physical infrastructure such as gas pipes in the ground and oil rigs in the North Sea, which much be decommissioned safely at a cost of billions.

Some £15.2bn of pension assets could also become worthless by 2040, UKSIF warned, equal to 0.5pc of the total UK pension pot.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/06/net-zero-to-cost-british-workers-2600-each/

Has she never heard of discounted cash flow? A pound today will be virtually worthless in thirty years time.

The shareholder value of, say, BP is largely predicated on expected income streams in the next ten years or so.

It is the same at a micro level. When BP invest in a new oil field, they plan on a payback of maybe ten years. Anything after that is pure profit. Using this report’s logic, all oil developments will eventually be worthless when the oil runs out.

Oil companies typically invest a large chunk of their cash flow. If market conditions change in future, such as reduced demand, they will simply switch this capital spend into raising dividends and share buybacks. They have done this in the past when there is a glut of oil and prices are low.

That way, investors recover their money anyway.

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March 8, 2025 at 12:06PM

Cyclone Alfred: Climate Disaster or Inadequate Flood Control?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Cyclone Alfred, Australia’s big East Coast cyclone was until recently hyped as a symptom of the climate apocalypse. But doomsayers are facing another disappointment from nature.

Is climate change supercharging Tropical Cyclone Alfred as it powers towards Australia?

Cyclone Alfred formed in the Coral Sea towards the end of February when sea surface temperatures were almost 1C hotter than usual

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is due to hit south-east Queensland some time on Saturday morning, bringing the risk of destructive winds, extreme flooding and storm surges to millions of people around Brisbane, the Gold Coast and northern New South Wales.

After last year was recorded as the hottest on record around the world, and the hottest for Australia’s oceans, what role could the climate crisis be playing in Tropical Cyclone Alfred and its impacts?

…

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/06/is-climate-change-supercharging-tropical-cyclone-alfred-as-it-powers-towards-australia

Fortunately Cyclone Alfred is turning into a fizzle. A powerful storm which will bring lots of rain and flooding, but no longer a catastrophic cyclone.

AS IT HAPPENED: Cyclone Alfred downgraded as it nears coast, expected to cross between Maroochydore and Brisbane; Albanese scraps plan for April election; ‘Dangerous times ahead’ as wind, rain hammer millions

By Adam Vidler Daniel Jeffrey Emily Bennett Yashee Sharma 12:30am Mar 8, 2025

Tropical Cyclone Alfred downgraded

By Karishma Sarkari07 Mar 2025 23:25

Cyclone Alfred has been downgraded to a category 1 storm in the latest advice issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

The system is moving north-west at 9km/h, pushing back the timing it’s forecast to cross the coast.

Alfred is still on track to cross over the Moreton Bay Islands early on Saturday morning before crossing the mainland coast between Brisband and Maroochydore later in the day.

The cyclone is forecast to weaken as it moves inland late Saturday and Sunday.

While damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h and heavy to intense rainfall is still forecast, bringing the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding, the weather bureau says destructive wind gusts are no longer expected.

…

Read more: https://www.9news.com.au/national/tropical-cyclone-alfred-live-updates-tracker-queensland-power-outages-evacuations-latest-news-headlines/13081401-e614-459c-b757-a972f4037c5d#post=6854bfed-e01d-443d-b2c2-874df6f99ceb

Are Aussie cyclones becoming more frequent?

The following is a rather confused statement from the Australian CSIRO, Australia’s peak scientific body. Cyclone frequency is declining, but their broken theories suggests cyclone frequency should be rising.

3. Has the frequency of tropical cyclones changed?

Research has shown a statistically-significant downward trend in the annual number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region over the period extending from 1981/82 to 2017/18, during the period of satellite images. The reasons for this downward trend are still being determined but are likely to be due to a combination of both natural variability and longer-term climate change. Additional non-satellite observations suggest there has also been a longer-term reduction in the number of tropical cyclones since 1900.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s satellite record is relatively short and there have been changes in the historical methods of analysis. Combined with the high variability in tropical cyclone numbers and influences of natural variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, it makes it difficult to attribute trends to any single factor.

However, it is clear that sea surface temperatures off the northern Australian coast have increased – part of a significant warming of the oceans that has been observed in the past 50 years due to increases in greenhouse gases. Warmer oceans tend to increase the amount of moisture that gets transported from the ocean to the atmosphere, and a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and so there is a greater potential for intense rainfall events with tropical cyclones.

…

Read more: https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/Articles/2025/March/things-to-know-about-tropical-cyclones

Obviously the risk of damaging floods is still a serious concern, and the remnants of the cyclone may dump a lot of water into Brisbane’s rivers or other low laying areas. But there may be another explanation for why that flood risk in Brisbane is so severe.

From a few days ago;

…

‘Anxiously watching’: Huge Cyclone call made 

Even though South East Queensland’s dams are almost full, not a single litre of water will be released until Alfred’s predicted 600mm of rain starts to fall. 

“We don’t always know when and where rain will fall,” a Seqwater spokesperson told The Courier-Mail. 

“Our 24/7 Flood Operations Centre is mobilised and – pending rainfall – is prepared to make controlled, gated releases later this week if required.”

…

Read more: https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/technology/environment/no-south-east-queensland-dam-releases-until-rain-from-cyclone-alfred-begins/news-story/be556f1df0aaa66a41bbd3fac8549fda

Why are dam operators being ordered to cling on to every drop of water until the last possible moment? The reason of course, is not enough dam capacity. As Brisbane and other Queensland city populations have boomed, there has been little interest in providing water resources to match the growing population. The result is dam operators have to hang on to every drop of water, and only release that water when they are certain incoming storms will hit their catchment area – even when the incoming storm is a cyclone.

SEQ does not have enough drinking water for booming population

By Felicity Caldwell
August 19, 2021 — 8.00pm

South-east Queensland will not have enough drinking water to support its rapidly growing population amid fears the region’s dams will struggle to supply millions of extra residents.

The revelation comes as residents could be forced to endure mandatory water restrictions in less than four months.

A stark warning about the need for new water sources – such as a dam or desalination plant – was emailed to Water Minister Glenn Butcher’s office in December, with a report revealing demand for water would increase as the south-east Queensland population grew by more than two million people over the next 25 years.

…

Read more: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/seq-does-not-have-enough-drinking-water-for-booming-population-20210818-p58jqd.html

If the dams had greater capacity, there would be much less risk of flooding – dam operators could confidently run their dams down in the face of rainfall threats, without fear of water shortages if the rain misses. The spare dam capacity could be used to soak up floodwater in the catchment area which feeds the dam.

The picture at the top of the article shows the potential consequences of failing to release dam water until the last minute.

In 2013 Brisbane was impacted by Cyclone Oswald, and suffered a severe rainfall and flooding event.

Then as now, dam operators were ordered to delay release until the last moment. The result was catastrophic – when 3ft+ of rain abruptly dumped into the catchment area of the Wivenhoe Dam, dam operators were forced to open the floodgates to save the dam, raising the Brisbane River well above normal height. The torrential dam outflow collided with the cyclonic low pressure storm surge rushing in from the sea in Brisbane’s most expensive business and residential district.

Colleges Crossing, pictured at the top of this article, is the main outflow of the Wivenhoe Dam, the water reservoir which supplies the state capital Brisbane. The water which passes through Colleges Crossing feeds into the Brisbane River, which in 2013 was a major contributor to inner city flooding. My home at the time became an island as spillway water flooded across the lowlands, cutting all the roads, and bringing misery to riverside property owners downstream of the dam.

My point is flood disasters in Brisbane have nothing to do with climate change. I doubt flood risk could ever be completely eliminated in a subtropical location like Brisbane, but floods could be mitigated by better flood control, including enlarging existing dams or building new dams. Larger dam capacity would give dam operators the confidence to run down water levels in the face of a dangerous rainfall event, even if they were not sure if the rain would hit the dam catchment, instead of clinging on to water until the last minute, then flooding the city of Brisbane with an emergency release to save the dam from catastrophic failure.


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March 8, 2025 at 12:04PM

“thing of the past” update

Twenty-five years after the Independent announced the end of snow, Northern Hemisphere snow mass is at a record high. Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past – Environment – The Independent snow-solid-precipitation – global-cryosphere-watch

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March 8, 2025 at 11:33AM