Guest Essay by Kip Hansen  —  15 February 2025 — 1400 words

Prologue:  This will be the last entry to a series of five parts which have discussed the ongoing scientific controversy surround the issue of Ultra-Processed Foods – UPFs.

The previous essays were:

What Junk Nutrition Science Looks Like

Modern Scientific Controversies: The War on Food: Part 1

Modern Scientific Controversies: The War on Food: Part 2, What are UPFs?

Modern Scientific Controversies: The War on Food: Part 3 — UPFs: What Are They Measuring?

The typical news media article on Ultra-Processed Foods usually starts with something like this, used in a New York Times piece, titled “How Bad Are Ultraprocessed Foods, Really? “ by Alice Callahan:

“Are ultraprocessed foods harmful?

“Most research linking UPFs to poor health is based on observational studies, in which researchers ask people about their diets and then track their health over many years. In a large review of studies that was published in 2024, scientists reported that consuming UPFs was associated with 32 health problems, with the most convincing evidence for heart disease-related deaths, Type 2 diabetes and common mental health issues like anxiety and depression.”

And it is true, consumption of UPFs have been “associated” with a lot of health problems – through the kind offices of epidemiology.  Remember:

World-class statistician, William “Matt” Briggs,  author of the book “Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics”, tells us, in no uncertain terms, that: “Epidemiology is the field which officially mistakes correlations for causations.”

And that is the most basic statement we can make about the faddish battle against Ultraprocessed Foods.

Let’s first make a basic assumption:

The basics of a “Good Diet” are a) Adequate, meaning  enough, protein, carbohydrates, fats and essential vitamins and minerals.  b) Not too much of any one thing, especially too much sugar (of all types), too much fats (of all types), too much proteins (of all types), and for some people, too much salt.  c)  Defining ‘too much’ and ‘adequate, enough’  is tricky, but you get the idea.   d)   Lots of variety including whole grains, fruits and vegetables of all types.

Feel free to have some objections to that assumption, nearly everyone can find something not to like, but what we know of the science of diet supports that very basic assumption.

What does this have to do with Ultraprocessed Foods?

Almost nothing.  Ultraprocessed Foods (UPFs hereafter) are a category of foods based solely on “the extent and purpose of food processing”.   Biologically, nutrition is the purpose of eating. Yet, nutritional values are not part of the defining characteristics of UPFs. 

Remember, UPFs does not mean “junk food”.  UPFs does not mean sugary sodas, hamburgers, French fries, candy and snacks.  Those are a concern in modern societies, but, while they are often included in UPFs,  they are not the core of UPFs. 

What is the core of UPFs?  “Almost everything on the shelves, in the aisles, of your grocery store and in the cupboards and refrigerators of your home.”

Another viewpoint:

In a NY Times piece (“How Bad Are Ultraprocessed Foods, Really?“), the journalist, Alice Callahan, quotes Dr. Lauren O’Connor [a nutrition scientist and epidemiologist who researched this topic as a former USDA and NIH employee] as saying:

“It’s true that there is a correlation between these foods and chronic diseases, she said, but that doesn’t mean that UPFs directly cause poor health.”….”Dr. O’Connor questioned whether it’s helpful to group such “starkly different” foods — like Twinkies and breakfast cereals — into one category. Certain types of ultraprocessed foods, like sodas and processed meats, are more clearly harmful than others.”

That quote seemed just a little too “on purpose” to me, so I wrote to Dr. O’Connor and asked her “Did you really say “are clearly more harmful”?  (which implies that UPFs themselves are harmful, some more than others.)  or is that the opinion of the journalist?”

Dr. O’Connor was kind enough to supply an expanded and more nuanced clarification, re-written as below, after acknowledging that “to Alice’s [Alice Callahan] credit, we spoke for almost an hour so I may have gotten sloppy with my language”: 

“It’s true that there is a correlation between these foods and chronic diseases, she said, but that doesn’t mean that foods classified as ultra-processed directly cause poor health. Correlation does not equal causation. We need more randomized controlled trials in which cause-and-effect can be determined. Currently, there are only a couple small RCTs published but several more are in the works.” (you can find them registered at clinicaltrials.gov or on NIH’s reporter website)

Dr. O’Connor questions the utility of grouping such “starkly different” foods into one category. The quintessential image of ultra-processed foods (google it!) is an image of hot dogs, candy, and sugar-sweetened beverages. However, this image is misleading because the group of ultra-processed foods in the US is highly variable and also includes many fortified whole-grain products and plant-based proteins (as well as infant formula). This is problematic for developing dietary guidance on ultra-processed foods and communicating to the public because processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages, for example, are foods that we recommend consuming in small to moderate amounts. However, there is consistent encouragement to the public to increase whole grains and plant-based proteins to improve their health.”

Those who have read the entire series will know that the ONLY solid evidence for any detrimental effect of so-called UPFs are restricted to the results for two sub-classes of UPFs, as shown yet again in Cordova et al. (2023) “Consumption of ultra-processed foods and risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases: a multinational cohort study”:

Even those effects are small and may not amount to minimal clinically important differences (MCID) for most people.  

Bottom Lines:

1.  There is no evidence that the category “Ultraprocessed Foods” is a valid concern for any consideration regarding human diets.  It is far too broad and encompassing ‘nearly everything’ without regard for nutritional value.

2.   Avoidance of UPFs can lead to nutritional deficiencies particularly for those with fewer resources and limited access to a wide variety of affordable foods  –  not only for poor and marginalized populations, but even for middle class families.

3.  This does not negate the evidence that suggests that extreme amounts of sugars in an individual’s diet can harm health, particularly if it leads, or has led, to obesity or is in combination with either type of diabetes.

4.  The evidence for harmful effects of animal based foods (meats) is controversial [and here]  and should be considered separately.

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Author’s Comment:

The whole UPFs issue is, in summary, just another run-away food fad, albeit blended in an odd way with anti-corporatism, anti-globalization, aspects of the ‘health food movement’ and Luddite-ism.  It is worrying that governmental agencies have hopped on the anti-UPFs band-wagon.  

There is no need to avoid UPFs – other than your personal preferences about foods and your personal degree of concern about such issues as “food additives” (which is a different but related issue).

For a second opinion, try: Ultraprocessed Foods Have a Terrible Reputation. They Don’t Deserve It, by Jessica Wilson at Slate.

Obsessing about foods and diet is an amusement for those lucky segments of humanity that have a real choice about what to include in their diets.  This has led to a dietary supplement industry earning over 53 Billion dollars in the United States alone.  While the best evidence shows that there is little to no benefit gained from supplementary vitamins, minerals or other diet supplements.

My Opinion:  Eat a wide variety of foods, not too much, across all the food groups, including plenty and varied vegetables and fruits (fresh if possible), legumes, and grains.    Get some exercise, 20-30 minutes a day most days, anything that includes moving around counts.

And for your own sake, quit obsessing about food.

Thanks for reading.

Comments meant for me personally should begin with “Kip – “

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From CLIMATE DEPOT

By Marc Morano

by Jim Hoft

Vice President J.D. Vance delivered his first major speech in Europe on Friday speaking at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

During his speech VP Vance did not hold back – just like his boss!

J.D. Vance, the former attorney, US Senator, and Marine Corps veteran from Ohio, blasted the EU elites who threaten Elon Musk and insist on ridding the continent of free speech.

J.D. Vance did not hold back reminding the Europeans about their nauseating record of lecturing Americans with bratty children like anti-Semite Greta Thunberg.

Vice President J.D. Vance: More and more all over Europe, they’re voting for political leaders who promise to put an end to out-of-control migration. Now, I happen to agree with a lot of these concerns, but you don’t have to agree with me. I just think that people care about their homes, they care about their dreams, they care about their safety and their capacity to provide for themselves and their children, and they’re smart.

I think this is one of the most important things I’ve learned in my brief time in politics, contrary to what you You might hear a couple of mountains over in Davos, the citizens of all of our nations don’t generally think of themselves as educated animals or as interchangeable cogs of a global economy. It’s hardly surprising that they don’t want to be shuffled about or relentlessly ignored by their leaders. It is the business of democracy to adjudicate these big questions at the ballot box.

I believe that dismissing people, dismissing their concerns, or worse yet, shutting down media, shutting down elections, or shutting people out of the political process protects nothing. In fact, it is the most surefire way to destroy democracy. Speaking up and expressing opinions isn’t election interference.

Even when people express views outside your own country, and even when those people are very influential.

Trust me, I say this with all humor, if American democracy can survive 10 years of Greta Thunberg’s scolding, you guys can survive a few months of Elon Musk. But what no democracy, American, German, or European, will survive is telling millions of voters that their thoughts and concerns, their aspirations, their please for relief, are invalid or unworthy of even being considered. Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters. There’s no room for firewalls. You either uphold the principle or you don’t.

Vice President J.D. Vance is going to steal our hearts if he doesn’t watch it!
Bravo!

By Jo Nova

History in the making

According to Doge.tracker  Elon Musk has already saved the US taxpayer $45 billion dollars (or $300 per taxpayer). Tonight DOGE officials have entered the IRS building in DC to begin their investigation. Coming soon, The Pentagon which employs 3 million troops and has a budget of $800 billion.

President Donald Trump praised Elon Musk and his army of ‘super-geniuses’ at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as they investigate the federal government for waste and fraud. … Trump said that Musk’s group had gone from 20 people to as many as 100.

—Daily Mail

Musk has been attracting young coders to work in Washington for months. The DOGE team were looking for 100 full time dedicated people to work in Washington.

The “super high-IQ small-government revolutionaries” that DOGE seeks need to be willing to work “80+ hours per week,” DOGE itself posted on its official X account. “This will be tedious work, make lots of enemies & compensation is zero,” Musk personally added. — Forbes

But they were attracting top guns who saw it as a career defining move, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Such is the allure of Musk:

One DOGE applicant pointed to a comment made by Figma CEO Dylan Field on X on Monday as “very good, pro-DOGE propaganda”: “I’d wager that in 10-20 years the group that works on DOGE will be the next PayPal Mafia,” Field posted”  – Forbes

One of Musk’s team is Luke Farritor — who deciphered a 2,000-year-old charred papyrus scroll from ancient Greece with AI. He was already working for Elon Musk at SpaceX. Musk has a way of finding the hyper intelligent engineers. I heard a story that one MIT professor looked up his top 10 graduates and found half of them were working for Musk. When Elon Musk heard that, he turned up at the professors door to ask where the other half were.

Modern art on this moment in history

FreeVoiceMedia uses AI to create a smashing parody movie trailer. Elon Musk is Sherlock Holmes solving the largest financial crime in the history of the world…

The Real Great Reset

Elon Musk was on X today wearing his “Tech Support” shirt offering advice to the world:  Have you tried turning the government off and on again?

But seriously, Musk explains in one minute how to get on top of the mountain of debt.

And so we find ourselves in this strange moment, where the Trump team Shock and Awe program is in full swing, the Blob has just started to fight back with legal suits, and a new era appears to be dawning:

“I don’t think the Democrats realize that it’s over”

Eric Weinstein talks to Joe Rogan:

I don’t think the Democrats realize that it’s over, and that there was a vast infrastructure  that made their feeble arguments viable and that infrastructure is now collapsing…

Watching the confirmation hearings, my sense was that the Elizabeth Warren’s and Bernie Sanders’ were dinosaurs who do not understand the Earth has just been hit from outer space and that they don’t live in the world that they are so used to. Their corruption was immediately apparent and they are not used to that, they’re used to having a whole phony journalistic layer that covers for them. That layer is gone, and the American public is awake and it’s angry and rightfully so…”

Next Target:  people who seemed to have made inexplicable amounts of money. Perhaps they are great investors, says Musk, but we are curious:

• Nancy Pelosi Annual salary: $223,000 Net worth: $202 million
• Mitch McConnell Annual salary: $200,000 Net worth: $95 million
• Chuck Schumer Annual salary: $210,000 Net worth: $75 million
• Elizabeth Warren Annual salary: $285,000 Net worth: $67 million

@DOGE

 

By Dan Brouillette

Over the past four years, Alaska’s economic potential has been stifled by the Biden Administration’s full-scale assault on the state’s vast resources. With President Trump back in office, there is a tangible shift in direction. In just his first few weeks, the administration acted decisively— signing an executive order designed to unlock Alaska’s “extraordinary resource potential” and appointing an Alaskan environmental commissioner to a pivotal EPA role. Notably, Japan is already considering backing the $44 billion LNG pipeline from the North Slope to Nikiski, according to industry reports.

During my tenure as U.S. Secretary of Energy in President Trump’s first term, I witnessed firsthand an unwavering commitment to advancing Alaska’s prosperity. Alaska’s success is a linchpin for national energy independence, and if decisive action is taken now, the impact could be transformative.

A top priority must be addressing Alaska’s domestic natural gas shortage. The reality is stark: without prompt intervention, there is a near-certain risk of higher energy prices and perhaps even rolling blackouts. The Dunleavy administration is working on long-term strategies to harness Alaska’s natural gas resources, while recognizing the urgent need for immediate measures. In the near term, importing LNG to cover production shortfalls—particularly from Cook Inlet—is not merely a stopgap; it is a critical, strategic move that fortifies Alaska’s energy future. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) supports the view that timely LNG imports can stabilize market fluctuations and ensure reliability.

Beyond these immediate supply concerns lies a broader market challenge. In Southcentral Alaska, Enstar Alaska—a Canadian-owned utility—is leveraging its market power to pursue legal actions that could lock consumers into inflated energy rates while hoarding scarce gas supplies. This is particularly concerning given that, two years ago, Enstar’s gas storage failed during one of the coldest winters on record, as documented by state energy reports.

It is essential to confront these challenges head-on, prioritizing robust, collaborative solutions over parochial self-interests. Supporting projects that provide immediate relief while laying the groundwork for long-term energy security is imperative. Investments in domestic production, strategic LNG imports, and ongoing innovation are not mutually exclusive; together, they form the backbone of a resilient energy strategy.

Additionally, the influence of extreme environmental groups in Alaska poses a tangible threat to progress. Although their clout in Washington, DC is diminishing, these groups are expected to intensify their efforts at the state level. Recent proposals for higher taxes on oil and gas producers serve as a warning—while the legislature wisely rejected those tax hikes, similar future attempts could derail key projects through litigation and lobbying.

President Trump’s second term represents a historic turning point—not just for Alaska, but for the U.S. as a whole. Alaska’s role in reshaping U.S. energy policy is undeniable. Unlocking the state’s full potential will ignite unprecedented innovation and pave the way for a more secure national energy future. The time to act is now. 

The Honorable Dan R. Brouillette is a distinguished leader in energy, finance, and government policy, having served as 15th U.S. Secretary of Energy, 19th Deputy Secretary of Energy, President of Sempra Infrastructure, and CEO of Edison Electric Institute. With a career spanning public service and corporate leadership, he has played a pivotal role in shaping global energy strategy, advancing technological innovation, and managing large-scale infrastructure investments.

This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.