Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
via Watts Up With That?
February 9, 2025 at 04:01AM
By Paul Homewood
In January 2022, a massive underwater volcano called Hunga Tonga suddenly erupted and shot so much water into the upper atmosphere that levels in the stratosphere rose suddenly by at least 10%. It was a genuine one in 100, even 200 year event and was reasonably expected to produce temporary weather changes around the globe. Sure enough, subsequent temperatures showed a 0.3-0.4°C upward spike. Needless to say, the Net Zero fanatics claimed the rise as their own and blamed it on humans controlling the climate by increasing the trace gas carbon dioxide. Today the Daily Sceptic can give wider publicity to sensational recent findings that suggest Hunga Tonga was the main culprit in producing the recent spike. The scientists directly link a dramatic cooling in the upper atmosphere of between 0.5-2°C to Hunga Tonga. It is generally held that there is an anti-correlation between the lower and upper atmosphere and cooling at the top produces warming at the bottom due to a number of complex atmospheric processes.
Hunga Tonga was an unusual volcanic eruption since it produced few dust particulates that usually cool the surface. Two recent land-based eruptions, El Chichon and Pinatubo, caused a temporary downward spike of around 0.5°C. The team of Colorado-based scientists found that the Hunga Tonga cooling was “comparable in magnitude” to the stratospheric warming caused by the two surface volcanoes in 1982 and 1991. The scientists reported “good agreement of observations with chemistry-climate model simulations”. “Cooling is mainly due to Hunga Tonga H2O [water] impacts,” they state.
This is dramatic stuff. It appears to promote Hunga Tonga as the prime cause in explaining the recent spike in temperatures. Indeed it could be concluded that the temperature rise should have been a little higher – and higher even still if the effects of a recent strong El Niño natural oscillation are included. Satellite observations, confirmed by computer analysis, shows stratospheric cooling of 0.5°C to 1°C in the middle and upper stratosphere during 2022 through middle 2023, followed by stronger reductions of 1°C to 2°C in the mesosphere after the middle of 2023, note the scientists. Last year, two distinguished atmospheric scientists observed the anti-correlation between the higher and lower atmosphere and suggested the lower stratosphere cooled by approximately two degrees per degree of warming nearer the surface. Where the troposphere has been anomalously warming, the lower stratosphere has been anomalously cooling “and vice versa”, note the scientists.
Needless to say, there has been no mention in mainstream media of these interesting and important findings. In fact, mainstream media are in the last knocking of a scare that has done valiant service in the cause of pushing the Net Zero political agenda. There was something almost heroic about Mark Poynting’s latest effort for the BBC titled ‘Record January warmth puzzles climate scientists’. The warming was said to be due to “emissions of planet-heating gases from humans”, but, continued Poynting, scientists say they cannot fully explain “why last month was particularly hot“. It might be suggested that they could stop relying on reanalysed computer model data and look at the accurate satellite temperature readings. As shown below, they give a different picture with the temperature anomaly dropping like a stone in the last three months.
Read the full story here.
Here is the paper Chris Morrison refers to:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL111500
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
February 9, 2025 at 03:53AM
Biden’s Green New Deal distraction is ending.
via CFACT
February 9, 2025 at 03:41AM
By Paul Homewood
Britain’s blackout prevention system has been dealt a blow after the billionaire known as the “Czech Sphinx” scaled back plans to build a new gas-fired power station in Yorkshire.
EPH, controlled by Daniel Kretinsky, previously set out plans to spend more than £1bn on redeveloping Eggborough’s coal power station by building two combined cycle gas turbine plants there, along with new battery storage.
The gas-fired plants secured government contracts to provide 1.5 gigawatts (GW) of power from 2026 onwards through the capacity market, a backup system meant to keep Britain’s lights on. This would be enough to power more than 2m homes.
However, EPH last month terminated one of the contracts, halving the amount of electricity it would guarantee to the grid, according to regulatory filings seen by The Telegraph.
Experts said the withdrawal threatened UK energy security unless the capacity was swiftly replaced, creating a headache for Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary.
They also warned that Mr Kretinsky’s decision to scale back his ambitions was potentially an ominous sign about the viability of other gas plants, given the relatively high payments the Eggborough plants had secured.
Mr Miliband’s plan for a clean power system by 2030 relies on maintaining a fleet of gas power plants that function as last-resort generators, firing up when wind farms cannot provide enough power.
These generators are deployed through what is known as the capacity market and EPH secured contracts at Eggborough to provide power at £63,000 per megawatt starting from 2026 to 2027.
Tom Edwards, of the consultancy Cornwall Insight, said the contracts were some of the highest ever awarded. Under the 15-year deals, generators are paid a retainer on the understanding that they must be ready to switch on at a few hours’ notice if the National Energy System Operator (Neso), which manages the grid, orders them to.
He said: “We are expecting several [gas plants] to come to the end of their lives before 2030, so there would need to be new capacity to replace them and maintain security of supply.”
Kathryn Porter, an independent analyst at Watt Logic, said the Eggborough withdrawal had come “at a bad time” and could force grid operators to pay out even bigger sums.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/blow-energy-security-czech-sphinx-130000389.html
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
February 9, 2025 at 03:24AM
