Month: September 2017

James Lovelock On ‘Wicked’ Renewables And Why He Changed His Mind On Climate Change

Environmentalism has gone too far; renewable energy is a disaster; scares about pesticides and chemicals are horribly overdone; no, the planet is not going to end any time soon; and, by the way, the answer is nuclear…

This isn’t me speaking, but the views of an environmentalist so learned, distinguished and influential you could call him the Godfather of Green. His name is James Lovelock, the maverick independent scientist perhaps best known for positing the theory that our planet is an interconnected, self-regulating organism called Gaia.

Not ‘Sir’ James Lovelock, I was mildly surprised to discover when I met him at his Dorset home, perched idyllically just behind Chesil Beach. ‘But I am a CH,’ he says, meaning Companion of Honour. ‘There are only 65 of them,’ chips in Lovelock’s American wife Sandy. ‘Yes, but I have to share the honour with Shirley Williams, which dilutes it somewhat — you know, comprehensive education,’ says Lovelock. ‘You’re not supposed to say that!’chides Sandy, clearly amused.

The Lovelocks are delightful company. Our lively conversation ranges from Brexit (they’re both very pro) to the joys of having a hornets’ nest in your house (they kill all the wasps in your garden so you can enjoy picnics undisturbed); they’ve witnessed an awful lot of history (‘I was stationed briefly at a B-17 base in the Midlands. The death toll was hideous, almost as bad as Passchendaele. One day I remember 21 planes  — each with a crew of ten — took off and only three came back. It was devastating’); and they fizz with irreverent good humour. We’d never met before, but they felt like
old friends.

Really old friends. Lovelock is 98, though you’d never guess it to look at him. His movements are light, agile and brisk; his marbles more than still there. One secret is his three-mile daily walk with Sandy; another is that though he used to smoke, he has never been a big eater or drinker. Mainly, though, he puts it down to a lifetime spent doing whatever has taken his fancy: ‘Live life as an independent! Never have a boss.’

Lovelock came up with his Gaia hypothesis more than half a century ago, in the course of a conversation with fellow scientists including Carl Sagan at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, where he was employed to work out ways of testing whether there was life on Mars.

This got him thinking about the mystery of life on our own planet: our peculiar atmosphere, largely comprising nitrogen and oxygen (unlike Mars and Venus, where it’s mostly CO2), and the extraordinary way that for the past 3.5 billion years, Earth has remained within a narrow temperature band capable of supporting life, even though the sun has grown 30 per cent hotter and ought to have fried us by now. Could it be, he wondered, that the entire planet is an incredibly complex, self-regulating system designed for supporting life?

The name Gaia came later, provided by his friend, the novelist William Golding, after the ancient Greek name for Earth. This didn’t help its reputation with scientists, many of whom dismissed it as a neo-pagan religion. But from the early 1970s  onwards it struck a chord with the green movement, which used it to support its belief that the planet’s delicate balance was on the verge of being destroyed forever by an unwelcome interloper: man.AdTech Ad

In 2006, Lovelock burnished his green credentials with The Revenge of Gaia, in which he argued that, thanks to global warming, man was all but doomed. By the end of the 21st century ‘billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable,’ he told an interviewer. Climate change was so serious a threat, he told the Guardian in 2010, that democracy might have to be ‘put on hold’.

Within two years he’d had a remarkable change of heart. ‘All right, I made a mistake,’ he told the cable channel MSNBC. He still believed —and continues to believe — that manmade carbon dioxide is a problem that needs addressing. But we’ve plenty of time to do something about it before any dangerous effects are felt, and in any case, the cures being advanced by green zealots are often worse than the disease itself.

One of his main bugbears is biomass, such as the woodchips from old oak forests in the US, which are shipped across the Atlantic to be burned for electricity at the Drax power station: ‘This is one of the most monstrous examples of green absurdity that I know of. It’s wicked!’

Nor is he a fan of wind energy, which he considers environmentally damaging, inefficient, expensive and a scam. ‘There’s so much money in renewable energy. I’m sure there’s a giant corruption going on.’

He’s modestly pro shale gas — only as a transition fuel to wean the world off coal — but his real enthusiasm is for nuclear, ‘so cheap, so safe’, whose dangers, he believes, have been grotesquely oversold by greens for reasons which have more to do with quasi-religious ideology than with science.

‘The way to look at radiation is that it’s about what they call the linear no-threshold. Namely, what the greens say is that there’s no amount of radiation that won’t give you cancer, no matter how small it is. Well, this is as stupid as saying, “Never go out of your home because if you do you’ve a chance of being killed by something or other.”’

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September 7, 2017 at 06:15AM

Despite Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Science Has No Idea If Climate Change Is Causing More (Or Fewer) Powerful Hurricanes

When opinion writers tacitly assume all good weather is natural and greenhouse gases only cause bad weather, or claim to be able to predict future storms, but only after they have already occurred, I reserve the right to call their science unsettled.

After Hurricane Harvey hit Texas, it didn’t take long for climate alarmists to claim they knew all along it would happen. Politico’s Eric Holthaus declared “We knew this would happen, decades ago.” Naomi Klein stated “these events have long been predicted by climate scientists.” Joe Romm at ThinkProgress wrote, “the fact is that Harvey is exactly the kind of off-the-charts hurricane we can expect to see more often because of climate change.”

According to these and other authors, rising greenhouse gas levels are at least partly to blame for the occurrence and severity of Harvey, and probably for Hurricane Irma as well. But after-the-fact guesswork is not science. If any would-be expert really knew long ago that Harvey was on its way, let him or her prove it by predicting what next year’s hurricane season will bring.

Don’t hold your breath: Even the best meteorologists in the world weren’t able to predict the development and track of Hurricane Harvey until a few days before it hit.

This is why the idea of climate science being “settled” is so ludicrous, at least as regards the connection between global warming and tropical cyclones. A settled theory makes specific predictions that can, in principle, be tested against observed data. A theory that only yields vague, untestable predictions is, at best, a work in progress.

The climate alarmists offer a vague prediction: Hurricanes may or may not happen in any particular year, but when they do, they will be more intense than they would have been if GHG levels were lower. This is a convenient prediction to make because we can never test it. It requires observing the behaviour of imaginary storms in an unobservable world. Good luck collecting the data.

Climate scientists instead use computer models to simulate the alternative world. But the models project hundreds of possible worlds, and predict every conceivable outcome, so whatever happens it is consistent with at least one model run. After Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, some climate modelers predicted such storms would be more frequent in a warmer world, while others predicted the opposite, and still others said there was no connection between warming and hurricanes.

What ensued was an historically unprecedented 12-year absence of major (category 3 or higher) hurricanes making landfall in the United States, until Harvey, which ties for 14th-most intense hurricane since 1851. The events after 2005 were “consistent with” some projections, but any other events would have been as well.

The long absence of landfalling hurricanes also points to another problem when opinion writers connect GHGs to extreme weather. Science needs to be concerned not only with conspicuous things that happened, but with things that conspicuously didn’t happen. Like the famous dog in the Sherlock Holmes story, the bark that doesn’t happen can be the most important of all.

It is natural to consider a hurricane a disruptive event that demands an explanation. It is much more difficult to imagine nice weather as a disruption to bad weather that somehow never happened.

Suppose a hurricane would have hit Florida in August 2009, but GHG emissions prevented it and the weather was mild instead. The “event,” pleasant weather, came and went unnoticed and nobody felt the need to explain why it happened. It is a mistake to think that only bad events call for an explanation, and only to raise the warming conjecture when bad weather happens. If we are going to tie weather events to GHGs, we have to be consistent about it. We should not assume that any time we have pleasant weather, we were going to have it anyway, but a storm is unusual and proves GHG’s control the climate.

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September 7, 2017 at 05:44AM

Is Irma The Most Powerful Atlantic Storm?

By Paul Homewood

 

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There seems to be a lot of disinformation around about Irma being the “most powerful Atlantic Ocean storm in recorded history” with sustained winds of 185 mph, such as the Telegraph above. I also heard the same comment on ITV News yesterday.

As I pointed out yesterday:

Four other storms have had winds as strong in the overall Atlantic region but they were in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, which are usually home to warmer waters that fuel cyclones.

Hurricane Allen hit 190 mph in 1980, while 2005’s Wilma, 1988’s Gilbert and a 1935 great Florida Key storm all had 185 mph winds.

In other words, there have now been four hurricanes as strong or stronger since 1980, about one every decade, and certainly nothing like the “unprecedented” impression left by the headlines.

And as we know, prior to Allen in 1980, we had very little in the way of measurements in mid ocean.

A closer look at the Labour Day Hurricane of 1935, widely acknowledged to be by far the most powerful storm to hit the US, emphasises this fact.

According to HURDAT:

The Labour Day Hurricane was the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall in the United States, based upon its central pressure of 892 mb. The maximum sustained winds at landfall in the Florida Keys are estimated to have been around 185 mph.

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And as Chris Landsea’s reanalysis highlighted, wind speeds were probably even higher, up to 164 kt, or 189 mph:

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Wind speeds were almost certainly even greater offshore prior to landfall, but in those days there was no way to measure them. Any anemometers in the area would have been destroyed in such high winds.

Therefore meteorologists relied heavily on measurements of pressure, and it is this which casts suspicion on claims about Irma.

If we look again at the five hurricanes listed above, we find:

mph Central Pressure hPa
Labour Day 185 892
Allen 190 899
Gilbert 185 888
Wilma 185 882
Irma 185 914

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Wind speeds don’t always correlate exactly with pressure, but pressure is usually a pretty good guide.

And we can see that Irma is not in the same league as the others.

The wind speeds estimated for Irma may be right, but if so it would indicate that they were underestimated for the other storms.

 

Meanwhile the early indications are that Irma is gradually losing strength, now down to 175 mph.

PHOTO: Hurricane Irma forecast track as of 2 p.m. Sept. 6, 2017.

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But the models still have little idea about where it is heading.

 

PHOTO: Hurricane Irma spaghetti models as of 2 p.m. Sept. 6, 2017.

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via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

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September 7, 2017 at 05:40AM

The Atlantic Has Three Active Hurricanes For The First Time In 7 Years

The Atlantic basin has three active hurricanes for the first time in seven years.

An image released by NOAA on Sept. 6, 2017, shows Hurricanes Katia, Irma and Jose.

Hurricanes Jose and Katia formed in the Atlantic basin Wednesday evening. Hurricane Irma, one of the most powerful storms on record, is already barreling towards Florida where it could strike as a Category 4 or 5 storm.

“The last time that we had three hurricanes in the Atlantic basin was September 16-17, 2010,” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told The Daily Caller News Foundation.

In 2010, major hurricanes Julia, Igor and Karl formed in the Atlantic basin. None of them made landfall in the U.S.

Irma is the strongest Atlantic storm outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Jose is expected to track behind Irma, crossing over some of the same eastern Caribbean islands Irma passed over.

Irma is expected to hug the Florida coast, but even if it doesn’t make landfall, it could still do lots of damage. Hurricane Matthew did not make landfall, but still did $10 billion worth of damage when it hugged the Atlantic coast in 2016.

President Donald Trump and GOP Florida Gov. Rick Scott issued emergency declarations. Irma is already passing over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, pelting them with torrential rain, high winds and storm surge.

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September 7, 2017 at 05:14AM