Why you shouldn’t believe a UK snow forecast more than three days ahead

Channel 4’s Liam Dutton

TV weather presenter Liam Dutton runs through some of the pitfalls awaiting UK forecasters.

Predicting snow in the UK is difficult and weather computer models rarely get it right more than a few days ahead. But why is this the case?

The past week has seen Arctic air and snow affect the UK, and with another cold blast later this week, there is much excitement about the prospect of snow.

Twitter has been awash with graphics from various weather computer models showing large swathes of the UK covered in snow in a week’s time.

However, the bottom line is that you should never believe a detailed UK snow forecast more than three days ahead.

The reason? Predicting snow in the UK is difficult and weather computer models rarely get it right more than a few days ahead. In some cases, they still get it wrong the day before it happens!

If you ask any weather forecaster who works in the UK, they will tell you that it can be very challenging to forecast snow here. The conditions are often marginal, which means that, sometimes, predictions can go wrong.

I thought I’d take a little time to journey through and explain the variety of factors than can determine whether or not snow falls, which will hopefully show how complicated it can be.

Continued here.

via Tallbloke’s Talkshop

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December 5, 2017 at 10:39AM

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