Month: June 2018

 Peru – Snow over a foot deep covers Puno villages

Snow has covered all the pastures, so they can not feed their animals.

7 June 2018 – Intense snowfalls in high areas of the Altiplano region. In six provinces of the Puno region intense snowfalls generates havoc in the population dedicated to livestock activity, because the pastures were under snow of more than 40 cm (16 inches), reported the Regional Emergency Operations Center (COER).

http://portal.andina.com.pe/EDPFotografia3/thumbnail/2018/06/04/000508271M.jpg
http://andina.pe/agencia/noticia-nieve-mas-40-centimetros-alto-cubre-poblados-puno-712204.aspx

Camelid pups die due to snowfall in Maure-Kallapuma

The temperature ranges from -15 to -17 C and the snowfall causes the death of South American camelids, which are the only support of local people, said the mayor of Marcos, Juan Ordoñez Paco.

The mayor said that since the beginning of the snowfall the death of approximately 300 pups, including llamas and alpacas due to pneumonia, diarrhea and fever caused by extreme conditions.

He explained that they have about 7,000 head of cattle and urged urgent support with fodder, because in the area the snow has covered all the pastures, so they can not feed them.

Ordoñez said that in the area there are around 500 settlers, of which about 150 are children, who require shelter and blankets to alleviate the intense cold.

The mayor of Tarata province, Efraín Caso Paúcar, said that snowfall has caused some communities to be cut off for a few hours and prevented the passage of vehicles that move along the Tarata-Challapalca-Mazocruz highway.

http://www.diariosinfronteras.pe/2018/06/07/mueren-crias-de-camelidos-por-nevadas-en-maure-kallapuma/
https://s3.amazonaws.com/diariosinfronteras.pe/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/07094619/5-Aa2.jpg

Puno, Peru, on high alert to prevent further deaths from pneumonia

Faced with the sharp drop in the temperature of the high Andean populations of Puno, the Regional Health Directorate (Diresa) launched a plan for permanent health surveillance in all health facilities to prevent the increase in deaths from pneumonia.

“Our main job at this time is to avoid major complications of respiratory diseases and avoid deaths from this type of problem,” said Jorge Enrique Sotomayor Perales, Regional Health Director of Puno.

According to reports from the Epidemiology Directorate of Puno, so far this year there have been six deaths of children under 5 years of age due to pneumonia, and 29,153 cases of children treated for cases of acute respiratory infections (ARI).
http://www.andina.pe/agencia/noticia-puno-se-declara-alerta-maxima-para-evitar-mas-muertes-neumonia-712556.aspx

Thanks to Argiris Diamantis for these links

 

 

The post  Peru – Snow over a foot deep covers Puno villages appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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June 8, 2018 at 04:01PM

Friday Funny: The neurobiology of “climate change denial”

Guest essay by John Ridway

Much work has already been undertaken to establish the cognitive foundation for the irrationality of climate change denial.

Of particular note are the studies undertaken by Lewandowsky, Kahneman, Shapiro and O’Conner, identifying the many cognitive biases that invalidate arguments put forward by those who profess scepticism in the face of the scientific evidence. However, it is not until recently that neuroscientists have turned their attention to the subject of climate change science denial in order to determine whether there are any fundamental neurological indicators that may be used as predictors of such pathological thinking strategies.

Of particular interest is a recent paper1,“The neurobiology of climate change denial”, by Dr Rodriguez Azuela et al, of the Positano Behavioural and Cognitive Research Unit. By revealing significant neural pathologies, the paper promises to throw new light on the puzzling irrationality that appears so intransigent to those who would strive to engage the public’s support for climate change mitigation. In Dr Azuela’s own words:

“We were interested to see how the pattern of neural activity differed between climate change deniers and those who accept the scientific consensus. In particular, we looked for differences whilst they considered the evidence put forward for anthropogenic climate change. For this purpose, subjects who had declared varying degrees of scepticism were confronted with images totemic of climate change evidence and were asked to offer their personal assessment whilst undergoing functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI).”

The fMRI images, which are basically snapshots of the brain in action, revealed notable differences between the deniers and those who accepted the scientific consensus.

Dr Azuela says:

“Whilst there were no deterministic differences between the groups, there were clear statistical variances that suggest a characteristic neuropathology. In the case of the deniers, counter to the normal pattern of activity, significantly activated regions included the left caudate, bilateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) and para-hippocampal gyri. Activations in the putamen and the globus pallidus were significant at p<0.005 (uncorrected), but no activation was found in the nucleus accumbens.”

To the layman, the significance of such variances is obscure. However, to the neuroscientist the coloured patterns on an fMRI are as revealing as any lie detector. As Dr Azuela explains:

“Curiosity levels modulate activation in such memory-related areas, so these results indicate a significantly reduced level of the curiosity one would normally associate with deferred judgment ideation.”

In other words, the deniers were simply unreceptive to the evidence presented and, instead, were activating brain regions associated with memory recall in order to entrench their preconceived ideas. These findings are in keeping with the psychologists’ concept of the availability heuristic, a cognitive bias in which new evidence is too readily rejected in favour of experiences that carry personal, emotional salience.

Such revelations should come as no surprise to those who have made it their business to study the logic employed by climate change deniers. However, other results were perhaps more surprising. Dr Azuela again:

“Of more concern, however, were the modulations of activity found within the orbital frontal cortex, insula, anterior and posterior cingulate, amygdala and anterior superior temporal gyrus, since they demonstrated a statistical alignment with the functional neuroanatomy of psychopathy.”

But before you choose to accuse all climate change deniers of being psychopaths, Dr Azuela has a word of warning:

“It would be quite wrong to label climate change deniers as psychopaths based upon the results of this study. Psychopathy exists as a spectrum of human behaviour; in this instance the fMRI results simply indicate an unusually low paralimbic reaction to a perceived threat.”

In other words, the climate science deniers aren’t nut jobs after all—they just don’t care enough. But I’ll leave the final word to Dr Azuela:

“In reality, studies2 have shown that confirmation bias poses the greatest challenge to cognitive performance. Those that suffer this bias will accept what they read unquestioningly, whilst others remain instinctively suspicious. Doubt should have kicked in at the suggestion that Positano has a Behavioural and Cognitive Research Unit. However, if you still failed to recognize the inauthenticity of this article, perhaps you should now be questioning any faith you might have had in the scientific consensus.”


References:

1 Azuela, R., Ho, M.T., Malaxic, T., Bernstein, F., (2018), “The neurobiology of climate change denial”, Journal of Environmental and Economic Studies, Issue 16[2].

2 Westen, D.; Blagov, P. S.; Harenski, K.; Kilts, C.; Hamann, S., (2006), “Neural bases of motivated reasoning: An fMRI study of emotional constraints on partisan political judgment in the 2004 U.S. presidential election”, Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 18 (11).

It should be noted that the author, John Ridgway, says this about the essay originally published at CliScep.

It was not my intention to embarrass anyone into accidentally revealing that they were fooled by this article. So, to help prevent a recurrence, may I make it clear that this article is a spoof. I wrote it so that readers may personally experience confirmation bias before being pointed in the direction of a scientific study on that subject (reference 2).

The Azuela paper (reference 1) does not exist. However, in the interests of authenticity, I strove to ensure that the neurological references were sound. For example, curiosity does indeed modulate the activation of memory-related brain centres, as listed. Furthermore, psychopathy is indeed characterised by aberrant activity within the centres listed. The rest was just my wicked deceit.

I apologise for any embarrassment caused, but I think the plausibility of the article, such that it has any, is a testimony to the wealth of nonsense that can be found out there.

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June 8, 2018 at 01:12PM

NOAA hurricane scientist: news media should be cautious about linking hurricane activity to global warming

The news media should be cautious about linking hurricane activity to global warming, according to National Hurricane Center Science and Operations Officer Chris Landsea.

Christopher Landsea at the National Hurricane Center

In an interview with NBC News reporters, Landsea said he is concerned when hurricanes are used “as a poster child” for global warming (https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/Is-There-a-Link-to-Superstorms-and-Global-Warming-484364611.html).

“There’s periods where it’s busy and quiet and busy and quiet, but no trend,” said Landsea, “There’s no statistical change over a 130-year period. Since 1970, the number of hurricanes globally is flat. I haven’t seen anything that suggests that the hurricane intensity is going to change dramatically. It looks like a pretty tiny change to how strong hurricanes will be. It’s not zero, but it’s in the noise level. It’s very small.”

Responding to assertions that hurricanes are stronger now or retain their strength longer than was the case several decades ago, Landsea questioned whether that perception is due to modern technology. Today’s technology is able to immediately detect the full strength of a hurricane even when it is far out at sea.

Global tropical cyclone data, presented by meteorologist Ryan Maue at http://wx.graphics/tropical/, show fluctuations from year to year but little if any long-term trend.

2017 was an active hurricane season in the North Atlantic, prompting the media to link hurricane activity to global warming. However, the 12 years before 2017 marked the longest period in recorded history without a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) striking the United States (https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/major-us-hurricane-drought-ends-after-record-4323-days

Landsea is one of the world’s leading experts on hurricanes, and famously resigned from the IPCC a few years ago, in protest over Trenberth’s attempts to cook the books.

Source: CFACT

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June 8, 2018 at 12:08PM

Chris Landsea Urges Caution Linking Hurricanes To Warming

Thank goodness for honest climate scientists, such as Chris Landsea.

 

From CFACT:

 

The news media should be cautious about linking hurricane activity to global warming, according to National Hurricane Center Science and Operations Officer Chris Landsea. In an interview with NBC News reporters, Landsea said he is concerned when hurricanes are used “as a poster child” for global warming (https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/Is-There-a-Link-to-Superstorms-and-Global-Warming-484364611.html).

“There’s periods where it’s busy and quiet and busy and quiet, but no trend,” said Landsea, “There’s no statistical change over a 130-year period. Since 1970, the number of hurricanes globally is flat. I haven’t seen anything that suggests that the hurricane intensity is going to change dramatically. It looks like a pretty tiny change to how strong hurricanes will be. It’s not zero, but it’s in the noise level. It’s very small.”

Responding to assertions that hurricanes are stronger now or retain their strength longer than was the case several decades ago, Landsea questioned whether that perception is due to modern technology. Today’s technology is able to immediately detect the full strength of a hurricane even when it is far out at sea.

Global tropical cyclone data, presented by meteorologist Ryan Maue at http://wx.graphics/tropical/, show fluctuations from year to year but little if any long-term trend.

2017 was an active hurricane season in the North Atlantic, prompting the media to link hurricane activity to global warming. However, the 12 years before 2017 marked the longest period in recorded history without a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) striking the United States (https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/major-us-hurricane-drought-ends-after-record-4323-days

 

http://www.cfact.org/2018/06/06/government-scientist-urges-caution-linking-hurricanes-to-warming/

 

Landsea is one of the world’s leading experts on hurricanes, and famously resigned from the IPCC a few years ago, in protest over Trenberth’s attempts to cook the books.

 

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June 8, 2018 at 12:04PM