Met Office Decadal Forecasts Running Hot

By Paul Homewood





Time to take a closer look at the new Met Office decadal forecast of global temperatures. (By decadal, the Met Office mean five years, apparently!)

Tallbloke handily updated the Met Office forecast from January 2017 with actual temperatures since (see above chart), in order to see how good their forecasting prowess actually was.

As you can see, it was pretty crap in reality!

For the period 2017-21, they predicted an anomaly range between 0.42 and 0.89C.

By stark contrast, the actual anomaly last year was 0.30C, way below the predictions.

It is also worth highlighting that even the retrospective predictions (that is retrospectively modelling past temperatures using known variables) were at the high end of the bands till the mid 1990s, and since have been trundling along the bottom with the exception of the record El Nino of 2015/16.

It is even more noticeable that the green band, (the range simulated by CMIP5 models that have not been initialised with observations), has overestimated warming by much more still.

This is classic evidence that the models are still running much to hot.

It hardly gives much confidence that the latest decadal forecast is going to be anymore accurate. As we can see below, the forecast for 2019-23 is still way above current levels.



Note also that they now calculate the anomaly against 1850-1900, rather than 1981-2010, which is the accepted norm. As I pointed out before, the use of a “pre-industrial” temperature baseline allows them to make the numbers sound much bigger and scarier.

The Met Office now say that global temperature anomalies will range between 1.03 and 1.57C for 2019-23. In comparison, last year was 0.91C, and even 2016, when the effect of the El Nino was at its height, only reached 1.11C.

Will temperatures really jump by half a degree or more in the next five years?


What we can say is that average temperatures have only risen by about 0.5C since the 1940s.



That is equivalent to 0.7C/century.

I have never seen any convincing evidence such a small increase would be detrimental in any way. And I cannot believe that our descendants, given a hundred years to sort themselves out, could not adapt to such a change.


February 11, 2019 at 11:55AM

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