Germany’s Energy Future Looks Bleak

By Paul Homewood

Following Adrian’s analysis, I thought it worthwhile to look at the winter figures:

http://energodock.com/germany/electricity-shares

Nuclear accounted for 13% in January this year, with coal/lignite providing 34%.

Solar, as in the UK, is pretty much worthless in winter months, with barely 1%.

While wind power accounted for 29% over the month as a whole, there were several days when it dropped into single figures:

http://energodock.com/germany/electricity-generation

There is currently installed capacity of 29 GW for CCGT, which could potentially replace the shut down of nuclear power in 2022, but this would obviously add to CO2 emissions:

https://www.energy-charts.de/power_inst.htm?year=2019&period=annual&type=power_inst

With demand peaking at around 80 GW in winter, Germany needs at least 100 GW of dispatchable capacity, allowing for de-rating.

Take away nuclear, and Germany currently has 91 GW from coal, gas, biomass, hydro and oil, so capacity will clearly be tight when nuclear goes in 2022.

When coal is phased out in the 2030s, which is the plan, heaven knows what they’ll do! At best, they’ll only have enough dispatchable capacity to cover half their needs.

They might have to start praying to the wind gods!