By Paul Homewood
h/t Joe Public
Last August, shortly after the publication of their Net Zero plan, the CCC released the above analysis which they had commissioned.
Although it was intended to study “hard to decarbonise” homes, such as heritage houses and older properties with limited space, the study included a dataset of assumptions made by the CCC in their Net Zero and other work, but never released in public (as far as I am aware).
These include the projected costs of energy:
These costs are fixed at 2018 prices, in other words there is no general inflation element.
Between 2018 and 2030, natural gas costs are projected to increase by 47%, with oil going up by 32%. These seem to be highly dubious assumptions, given that in a world theoretically quitting fossil fuels there would be a glut of gas and oil.
The higher the cost assumed for fossil fuels, of course, the lower the projected cost of decarbonisation appears, so there is a built in incentive for the CCC to overestimate the former. It is certainly the case that government projections have consistently overestimated gas prices in recent years.
Leaving this aside, however, what is really significant is the dramatic increase in real electricity prices – 22% for both peak and off peak. These increases are the direct result of the ever increasing subsidies for low carbon electricity.
In terms of household bills, this would equate to an additional annual cost of about £160. However this does not reflect the full cost, as domestic use only accounts for a third of total electricity consumption. The total cost for the country of these increases would be around £9bn, and comes on top of the current subsidies of £12bn.
And, of course, it does not end there. According to the projections, electricity costs will be 6 times as high as natural gas by 2030. With an average annual gas bill of, say, £600, households will be facing an increase of up to £3000, even if they go for off peak storage solutions.
Heat pumps, of course, are more efficient, but even with these gas bills are likely to at least double. On top of that, householders will be faced with installation bills of well over £10,000. In total cost terms, assuming everybody goes down the heat pump route, heating bills would rise by £15bn a year nationally, while the cost of fitting heat pumps would amount to at least £260bn.
Costs to industry and the public sector will add considerably to that figure.
The hydrogen option looks no better, with a projected cost of double that of natural gas. That estimate is almost certainly too low, as the CCC point out that it does not include the cost of “seasonal storage of hydrogen”, for instance in salt caverns, which would be essential if hydrogen heating was widely rolled out.
It also does not cover the one off cost of retro-fitting homes and appliances.
District heating schemes (DH) are often presented as a green alternative, but unfortunately these work out at four times the cost of gas, on top of capital expenditure of £6000 per house to cover heat exchangers and piping.
With figures like these, it is not difficult to see how national costs could rise to £50bn a year very quickly.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
March 3, 2020 at 05:55AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 