By Paul Homewood
Why do the BBC need three environmental reporters, when all they do is cut and paste the latest alarmist study without actually doing any cross checking or ask awkward questions?
A record-breaking heatwave in Siberia would have been almost impossible without human-caused climate change, a study has found.
The Russian region’s temperatures were more than 5C above average between January and June of this year.
Temperatures exceeded 38C in the Russian town of Verkhoyansk on 20 June, the highest temperature ever recorded north of the Arctic circle.
The Arctic is believed to be warming twice as fast as the global average.
An international team of climate scientists, led by the UK Met Office, found the record average temperatures were likely to happen less than once every 80,000 years without human-induced climate change.
That makes such an event "almost impossible" had the world not been warmed by greenhouse gas emissions, they conclude in the study.
The scientists described the finding as "unequivocal evidence of the impact of climate change on the planet".
It is, says co-author Prof Peter Stott of the Met Office, the strongest result of any attribution study to date.
Attribution studies attempt to work out the role that human-induced climate change plays in major weather events.
Climate scientists use computer simulations to compare the climate as it is today with the climate as it would have been without human influence to see how likely different weather events would have been.
As already pointed out, there was nothing remotely exceptional about the heatwave at Verhojansk last month, as temperatures were only half a degree higher than in 1988.
Now we have the full monthly data in, we can compare June temperatures at Verhojansk:
While last month was a degree or two higher than usual, we can see that it was actually hotter in 1912!
Meanwhile there seems to be little trend in overall summer temperatures, with the hottest summer on record way back in 1917:
If anything extreme was happening to the climate in Siberia, it would be immediately apparent in these graphs.
As is well accepted, the heatwave in Siberia last month was the result of loops in the jet stream, which brought hot air up from the south in conjunction with a large and fixed area of high pressure.. But there is nothing unusual about such a phenomenon.
HH Lamb found that not only did the same thing happen back in the 19thC, but that it was probably more common then:
HH Lamb: Climate, History and the Modern World- p 253
Lamb, Wahl and their contemporaries relied on meticulous analysis of actual data, rather than on the GIGO computer models used by Stott.
Strangely, while the BBC are quite happy to report Stott’s junk science, they omit to mention a study from the University of Exeter earlier this year. This conclusively found that the jet stream was not getting wavier.
Indeed, they point out that it is this very waviness which leads to a warmer Arctic, by bringing mild air from the south. Something, I might add, that anyone with half a braincell might have suspected.
In true BBC fashion, Rowlatt does not miss a chance to ramp up the alarmism, by suggesting that a warmer Arctic is making our weather worse.
The changing Arctic climate is of huge importance here in the UK.
Four of the six main systems that determine this country’s weather are driven by conditions in the Arctic, said Dr Katharine Hendry of Bristol University.
She was one of the lead authors on a paper published last month that suggested a series of extreme weather events could be linked to changes in the Arctic.
The so-called "Beast from the East", in the winter of 2018, is one.
It involved Arctic air blasting the country, driving temperatures below 0C for several days. Over half a metre of snow fell in some areas.
The Beast from the East was a direct result of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, a perfectly natural and common event. It had nothing to do with a “warming Arctic” at all.
Indeed, Hendry’s paper actually admits the theory is just speculation:
If HH Lamb was still around, he probably would have pointed out the inconvenient fact that bitterly cold winters used to be very common!
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
July 17, 2020 at 07:36AM