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via CFACT
April 14, 2022 at 04:00PM
Month: April 2022
Here is a Youtube video of the incident I wrote about on Tuesday, of the bear that climbed up on an elderly woman’s house in St. Anthony last Sunday and then confronted her when she opened the door.
Statements from local officials included with a follow-up news report of the incident confirms that there were indeed no polar bear sightings along the Labrador coast in 2020 and 2021 and few (if any) along the Newfoundland coast: it wasn’t just a case of reports not making the news. In addition, it also appears that sea ice conditions this year brought an abundance of harp seal pups to the waters off southern Labrador and Newfoundland, which may mean that pregnant harp seals were giving birth further north for the past two years and the Davis Strait bears were simply staying with them.
From a CTV News report (14 April 2022), my bold:
If it weren’t for her neighbour’s home security camera, Bobbi Stevens would have had no idea the polar bear she saw Sunday evening had just come down from her roof.
The 78-year-old St. Anthony, N.L., resident said she was more excited than scared after she opened her front door to find the bear almost close enough to touch. But when she saw video footage of the animal on her roof just before she opened the door, Stevens said she realized just what could have happened.
“After I watched the video, I had to lie down for a while,” she said. “I’m so glad I didn’t know about it when he was up there. The roof is not very strong, and the bear is very heavy.” …
The animals are from the Davis Strait population, provincial wildlife officials said in an email Tuesday, and they’re likely heading back north after a winter of feasting on seals out on the sea ice. The bear sightings this year are perfectly normal, they added, noting they receive 30 to 60 reports of polar bear sightings a year.…
Two bears have wandered onto Fogo Island this spring, the community’s mayor said in an interview Tuesday. “We haven’t had that much sea ice in the last few years, but this year apparently the ice is really heavy and there seems to be a lot of seals on it,” Mayor Andrew Shea said. “I guess they came with the seals.”
Wildlife officials tranquilized and caged the second bear last week and shipped it off the island on the ferry, Shea said. The animal was taken up to St. Anthony, where it could head safely back north on the ice.
Jeffrey Keefe figures at least 16 bears have shown up in his southern Labrador community of Black Tickle this spring. He works with the Canadian Rangers as the town’s polar bear guard, so he’s in charge of getting them out of town and back on the ice.
“If they’re eating good and they’re in good shape, they’re not much of a trouble,” Keefe said in an interview Tuesday. “You can bawl out at them loud or tap your hands together, normally you’ll startle them and they’ll run.”
Sometimes, Keefe will have to get a few people together to chase them off with their snowmobiles. He said changing sea ice conditions over the past several years have made their arrival unpredictable, and there weren’t any bears the past two years.
via polarbearscience
April 14, 2022 at 02:09PM
It takes 10 years and 22 ppm for CO2 to amass just 0.2 W/m² in total surface energy flux. In contrast, short-wave cloud radiative forcing fluctuations vary in amplitude by ±300 W/m² within hours.
Earth’s surface energy imbalance is said to have been positive, +0.6 W/m², during the first decade of this century (Stephens et al., 2012). Problematically, the uncertainty in this assumptive estimation is ±17 W/m², which means the imbalance could be anywhere from -16.4 W/m² to +17.6 W/m².
Image Source: Stephens et al., 2012
As Sedlar and colleagues emphasize in a new study, clouds “directly modify the solar and infrared radiation reaching the surface,” and the “net result of these energy fluxes determines the warming and cooling processes at the surface.”
Quantitatively, shortwave cloud forcing modulates Earth’s surface radiative flux in magnitudes that vary by ±300 W/m² and up to 600 W/m².
“As clouds typically attenuate shortwave radiation, CRFSW at the surface is negative, resulting in a relative cloud cooling effect (e.g., Ramanathan et al., 1989). The CRFSW observed for the two low cloud types shows a wide range, from quite strong, −600 W/m², to quite modest near 0 W/m² (Figure 10a). Subsequently, THFs respond to the modification of SWD by the cloud type. Under low stratiform periods, individual scatter points of Hs + Hl were frequently observed between 0 and 300 W/m² and correspond to a median CRFSW (black square within blue scatter) approximately −300 W/m².”
Image Source: Sedlar et al., 2022
Another new study (Padmakumari et al., 2022) suggests the amplitude of shortwave cloud radiative forcing perturbs the surface energy imbalance in magnitudes reaching 1000 W/m².
“CES induced positive shortwave cloud radiative forcing (CRF) varied up to +400 W/m² (warming effect), while negative CRF varied up to −1000 W/m² (cooling effect).”
Image Source: Padmakumari et al., 2022
Meanwhile, it takes about 22 ppm of CO2 concentration changes to impact Earth’s surface energy budget by a grand total of 0.2 W/m² (Feldman et al., 2015). Extrapolated, it would take a 110 ppm CO2 concentration change to affect the surface energy imbalance by 1 W/m².
Image Source: Feldman et al., 2015
For advocates of the position that CO2 is the primary driver of changes to Earth’s highly uncertain surface energy imbalance (and, therefore, climate change), it must be assumed that cloud properties remain static over time, allowing cloud shortwave radiative effects to perpetually cancel out to zero over decades and centuries.
Given the shortwave cloud radiative forcing magnitudes identified in the scientific literature, this assumption is extremely unrealistic.
via NoTricksZone
April 14, 2022 at 01:44PM
Climate scientists are 100% certain their fake temperature graphs for earth are caused by burning fossil fuels, but they can’t explain what is causing cooling on Neptune. “A new study in the Planetary Science Journals reveals an unexplained shift in … Continue reading →
via Real Climate Science
April 14, 2022 at 12:53PM
Iowa Climate Science Education 