New Study: ‘The Reasons For The Warming In The Arctic Are Still Controversial’

Of all the possible reasons for a warming Arctic since 2002, it has been determined that “the clear-sky downward long-wave radiation caused by water vapor” is the dominant cause.

A new study says that when it comes to downwelling long-wave, water vapor, clouds, and temperature are the main factors determining its intensity.

“As is well known, atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and the atmospheric temperature are the main factors affecting the intensity of the downward long-wave radiation.“

Since the early 2000s, the Arctic has been rapidly warming. Some possible reasons for a warming Arctic posited in many recent studies include:

Albedo feedback

Lapse rate feedback

Planck feedback

Water vapor feedback

Cloud radiative forcing

Ocean heat transport

Vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction

Poleward propagation of Rossby waves

Phases of the Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Dipole

Positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Ural blocking

Changes in atmospheric circulation (i.e., the PNA)

But the winner of the most likely culprit for winter warming since 2002? Based on a diagnostic analysis of the surface energy balance equation, it’s water vapor.

“[I]t has been determined that the clear-sky downward long-wave radiation caused by water vapor is the dominant factor affecting Arctic amplification in the autumn and winter.”