So we can stop worrying and enjoy life now, right?
Tue, 28 June 2022, 1:12 am
The battle to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius by 2050 is doomed, according to researchers who have reviewed data around global warming.
To achieve the goal of limiting temperature rise by this amount, global carbon emissions must reach net zero – where emissions are balanced by carbon absorbed by plants and carbon-capture technology – by 2050.
To meet the goal, emissions will have to fall 43% by 2030, two scientists said in a paper published in Science – but emissions are still rising.
A rise of 1.5 Celsius is considered important, because above that level and there will be more heatwaves, extreme weather events, droughts and greater economic losses.
Previous research had suggested that these emissions had already led to an increase of 1.25 Celsius.
The abstract of the study;
Current global efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C
Human activities have caused global temperatures to increase by 1.25°C, and the current emissions trajectory suggests that we will exceed 1.5°C in less than 10 years. Though the growth rate of global carbon dioxide emissions has slowed and many countries have strengthened their emissions targets, current midcentury net zero goals are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures. The primary barriers to the achievement of a 1.5°C-compatible pathway are not geophysical but rather reflect inertia in our political and technological systems. Both political and corporate leadership are needed to overcome this inertia, supported by increased societal recognition of the need for system-level and individual lifestyle changes. The available evidence does not yet indicate that the world has seriously committed to achieving the 1.5°C goal.
Read more (paywalled): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo3378
I always find it amusing when doomsday predictions are paywalled, but I guess scientists have got to eat while they’re waiting for the end of the world.
The study claims 1.25C warming has already occurred, but look around you. Nothing bad has happened.
So now we’re expected to believe that extra 0.25 warming to reach 1.5C is going to make all the difference?
Given we have plentiful paleo evidence that periods much warmer than today were full of abundance and life, like the Eocene Thermal Maximum, during which our primate ancestors encountered such favourable conditions they spread across much of the planet, I’m not going to lose any sleep about the possibility of breaching 1.5C global warming.
via Watts Up With That?
June 28, 2022 at 12:01AM