Gamblers update: Eli Rabett vs Tallbloke on Arctic Sea Ice extent

Six years ago this week, I agreed to a wager with Eli Rabett on the trend in Arctic sea ice extent from 2006-2026. Now we’re more than halfway to the finish line, it’s a good time to check on progress. Here’s how the Sea Ice Extent graph looks from mid 2006 to mid 2022. The trend is still towards less ice, but not by much. There’s no ‘climate emergency tipping point’ visible in the data.

The terms we agreed are detailed in the image of the twitter convo below.

Eli wins the bet if Arctic sea ice extent reduces by more than 0.06 million square km per year over the 2006-2026 period.

Tallbloke wins the bet if Arctic sea ice extent reduces by less than 0.045 million square km per year over the 2006-2026 period.

As things stand now, over the mid 2006 to mid 2022 period, the rate of Arctic sea ice extent reduction is….

0.028 Mkm/yr. This is less than half the loss rate Eli needs to win.

Eli needs to start saving up some dollars to honour the bet.

via Tallbloke’s Talkshop

https://ift.tt/BWyI6H7

August 20, 2022 at 04:42AM

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