By Paul Homewood
The IEA has published its latest annual outlook.
As usual it is based on several scenarios:
The only relevant one is the first, STEPS, which is looks at what governments have actually said they will do. This, by the way, includes Joe Biden’s recent bill, the ludicrously named “Inflation Reduction Act”.
The APS is little more than fairy tale, where governments have promised things like Net Zero eventually, but have no plans on how to achieve it. It is easy for politicians to make silly promises for things in twenty or thirty years time, when they will be long gone.
The key chart is below. Despite the IEA’s optimistic assumptions throughout this report, fossil fuel consumption remains very high even in 2050. Indeed it is still around the level of 2015, when the Paris Agreement was made:
And this is reflected in the projections for CO2. Ignore the pre-Paris baseline, which was never realistic. Under STEPS, emissions in 2050 will only be 12% lower than today. Clearly this proves just how little the world as a whole has actually done, despite the grandiose declarations at Paris and Glasgow.
There were two fundamental flaws underlying the succession of COPs beginning at Paris:
1) Developing countries, including China and India, were effectively exempted from taking any action to reduce emissions.
2) No agreements were made for what would happen after 2030. Countries may or may not hit decarbonisation targets made for 2030, but no further pledges have been made for emission cuts thereafter.
And that is why even the IEA have been forced to accept that the world will still be heavily reliant on fossil fuels for many decades to come.
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October 29, 2022 at 11:56AM