Month: May 2023

At CHECC, We’re Down But Not Out!

From the MANHATTAN CONTRARIAN

Francis Menton

Today, the Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit issued its Judgment in the case of Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council, et al. v. EPA. I am one of the lawyers for CHECC in this matter, where the Petitioners seek to have the court order EPA to reconsider its ridiculous 2009 Endangerment Finding (EF) that CO2 and other “greenhouse gases” constitute a “danger” to human health and welfare. To no one’s surprise, the court dismissed our Petition. The sole ground for the dismissal was what they call “standing.” The court did not reach or discuss the merits of the Petition, namely whether data and evidence accumulated since the 2009 EF had rendered the Finding definitively false and in need of reconsideration.

Also today, the Supreme Court decided the case of Sackett v. EPA. The Sackett case involved a different EPA rule, called the Waters of the United States rule. Thus the two cases may seem to be unrelated. But in fact they are closely related in the most important way, which is that both involve wild overreach by EPA, followed by cynical gaming by EPA of court procedural rules in order to avoid ever being held to account for the overreach. In Sackett, EPA finally got its comeuppance today, after almost 20 years of litigation. The Sackett decision increases our confidence that EPA will ultimately also be held to account for the EF and the many destructive rules flowing from it; but exactly how and when that will occur remain to be seen.

As discussed in my prior post of April 14, the oral argument held that day in CHECC v. EPA dealt almost entirely with the issue of standing. EPA focused their argument on seeking dismissal on this procedural ground, thus hoping (successfully, as it turned out) to avoid the merits. They contended that the Endangerment Finding was not itself a rule that affected anyone financially, and that there wasn’t even a pending, let alone final, rule seeking to limit greenhouse gas emissions from the electric power sector. They also contended that the 2009 Endangerment Finding that we were challenging related to the transportation sector (“mobile sources”) rather than the electricity sector (“stationary sources”).

Talk about cynical. The 2009 EF that we challenged in fact contained the only thing passing for the scientific basis of the Obama-era rule, called the Clean Power Plan, that sought to abolish fossil-fuel generated electricity. The CPP was rescinded by the Trump administration, and then ultimately declared an invalid overreach by the Supreme Court in West Virginia v. EPA on June 30, 2022. As CHECC v. EPA was getting briefed and argued between late 2022 and April 2023, it was common knowledge that Biden’s EPA had in the works a new and even more onerous rule restricting power plant emissions. That rule was only announced on May 8, and officially appeared in the Federal Register on May 23 — just two days ago. In the newly-published proposed rule relating to stationary sources, EPA acknowledges the 2009 EF as the source of the supposed scientific basis for the rule (at page 33,249):

In the 2009 Endangerment Findings, the Administrator found under section 202(a) of the CAA that elevated atmospheric concentrations of six key well-mixed GHGs—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2 O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)—“may reasonably be anticipated to endanger the public health and welfare of current and future generations” (74 FR 66523; December 15, 2009) . . . .

Meanwhile, from today’s DC Circuit opinion:

CHECC draws no connection between the Endangerment Finding (which compels the regulation of motor vehicle emissions under § 202(a) of the Clean Air Act) and the price of residential electricity.

And thus, if you can even follow the convoluted logic here, EPA, with the support of the DC Circuit, has made it such that no consumer of electricity can challenge a rule seeking to eliminate the large majority of all reliable sources of electricity, and to impose on consumers what will almost certainly be hundreds of billions of dollars of additional costs.

We plan to fight on, likely through the en banc DC Circuit and the Supreme Court. Maybe we will see success at one of those levels, and maybe not. Undoubtedly, when the new power plant rule becomes final — later this year or maybe in 2024 — there will be multiple challenges to that on grounds similar to the ones that were ultimately successful in West Virginia v. EPA. Those challenges will likely reach the Supreme Court some time around 2027 or 2028. The question is, will there be anything left of our reliable electricity-generation sector by that time?

In the Sackett matter, the Sacketts began to work on building a house back in 2004. Within a few months, EPA issued an order to the Sacketts demanding that they stop work and restore the property, on the ground that wetness on the property was part of “waters of the United States” that EPA regulated. When the Sacketts attempted to bring a court action to determine that EPA’s order was overreach, EPA contended that the Sacketts had no ability to sue until going through a full administrative process — and incurring fines for non-compliance of some $40,000 per day. The Sacketts took that case to the Supreme Court, which ruled in 2012 that the Sacketts had the right to sue. So they went back to the District Court, where, after 7 additional years of proceedings, the court ruled against the Sacketts in 2019 and determined that the wetness on the Sackett property was part of the “waters of the United States.” The Ninth Circuit affirmed in 2021. And the Supreme Court reversed today.

Incredibly, the Sacketts saw their case through nearly 20 years of this to achieve their victory. But their saga shows you EPA’s game plan — string things out so far as to exhaust the opposition and, in our case, force the entire reliable capacity for generating electricity out of business before the courts can intervene. We hope to achieve some success before too much destruction has occurred, but as can be seen from the DC Circuit’s decision, even at that prestigious court there is little sense yet of any kind of problem.

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May 27, 2023 at 08:18PM

Aarhus University Researchers Find Arctic Warmer, Ice-Free in Summertime 10,000 Years Ago!

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin

Moving goalposts

Sediment samples show Arctic was warmer 10,000 years ago and was ice free in the summertime. Moreover, the researchers say “it’s uncertain” if Arctic sea ice will disappear in the summertime before 2063.

Image: NASA (public domain) 

The Aarhus University conducted a study that confirms sea ice disappeared from the Arctic during the summer months during the early Holocene – 10,000 years ago.

Researchers from Aarhus University, in collaboration with Stockholm University and the United States Geological Survey, analyzed samples from the previously inaccessible region north of Greenland. The sediment samples were collected from the seabed in the Lincoln Sea. They showed that the sea ice in this region melted away during summer months around 10,000 years ago.

The research team concluded that summer sea ice melted at a time when temperatures were higher than today.

“Climate models have suggested that summer sea ice in this region will melt in the coming decades, but it’s uncertain if it will happen in 20, 30, 40 years, or more. This project has demonstrated that we’re very close to this scenario, and that temperatures only have to increase a little before the ice will melt,” says Christof Pearce, Assistant Professor at the Department of Geoscience, Aarhus University.

Summer temperatures higher than today

The researchers have used data from the Early Holocene period to predict when the sea ice will melt today. During this time period, summer temperatures in the Arctic were higher than today. Although this was caused by natural climate variability opposed to the human-induced warming, it still is a natural laboratory for studying the fate of this region in the immediate future.

In Aarhus the marine samples have been analyzed in collaboration with Associate Professor Marianne Glasius and academic technical staff Mads Mørk Jensen from the Department of Chemistry. Among other things, they studied molecules from certain algae that are only produced when there is sea ice. The researchers can thereby determine when summer sea ice was present in the area.

When the sea ice in the Lincoln Sea begins to melt during the summer months, it can have major consequences for the climate. Where white ice reflects the rays of the sun, a dark sea will absorb more than ten times as much solar energy.

“The sea ice is a base for many ecosystems. The algae we examined are food for fish, fish are food for birds, etc. How will the marine ecosystems be affected globally if the sea ice disappears? We don’t know the answer yet,” says Henrieka Detlef, an assistant professor at the Department of Geoscience.

According to the researchers from Aarhus University, the study can be interpreted as bad news and good news for the climate. Henrieka Detlef also said that if temperatures remain stable or perhaps even fall, “the sea ice would return to the area.”

Alarmist authors

Despite the undisputed powerful natural factors and cycles at play in the Arctic, some researchers take a more alarmist or even hysterical view of what the future holds. For example, warning that greenhouse gas emissions are heating up the planet, Christof Pearce said, citing dubious model results: “The study is a wake-up call, because we know that it will happen. This news is not making the situation more depressing, just more urgent. We have to act now so we can change it.”

The research is published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, and presented using an alarmist narrative. The study’s results indeed confirm natural factors were at play during the early Holocene, and thus readers need to keep in mind that these natural factors have not gone away. They continue to change and drive our climate today.

Henrieka Detlef et al, Seasonal sea-ice in the Arctic’s last ice area during the Early Holocene, Communications Earth & Environment (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00720-w

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May 27, 2023 at 04:24PM

Half Of Arctic Ice Melted Before 1955

“Lansing State Journal 10 Mar 1955, Thu – Page 39 Ice Melts In Arctic Earth Becoming Warmer, Says Explorer; Oceans May Rise 100 Feet BOSTON, March 10 (INS)—A famed Arctic explorer reported to- day the world is getting warmer— but … Continue reading

via Real Climate Science

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May 27, 2023 at 02:51PM

NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season

News Brief by Kip Hansen — 27 May 2023

“NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.”

“NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.”

This list of the 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names was selected by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  The first hurricane of the season will be named Arlene, followed by Brett then Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert and so on.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season. “ (emphasis mine – kh)

“After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.” [ source ]

For comparison, the 2022 hurricane season looked like this:

2022 had 14 named storms,  8 hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes and 5 tropical storms.  Note that NOAA and the Wiki each have slightly different numbers of tropical storms for the season (5 vs 6).  Nonetheless, Hurricane Ian, Cat 5,  caused up to 161 human deaths and more than a billion dollars of damage, landfalling in the continental U.S. twice.

As always, those in areas potentially in the path of tropical storms and hurricanes should remain aware of hurricane warnings, be prepared to protect their property from damage, and have plans to evacuate if necessary.

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Author’s Comment:

Having lived in the northern Caribbean on our ancient sailing catamaran for a dozen years, I am well versed in the activities of watching the weather, checking hurricane development daily, and planning, planning and re-planning as conditions changed.  Evidence of the success of our plans is that I am here writing this today.  We had several close calls and rode out one direct hit in North Carolina near Beaufort. 

During hurricane season, I still check the reports and predictions daily; I have family in the USVI, in harm’s way.

Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.  Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.

Be Prepared.  Thanks for reading.

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May 27, 2023 at 12:21PM