Month: June 2024

Electric car discounts now ‘unsustainable’ amid record price cuts

By Paul Homewood

h/t Philip Bratby

 

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Manufacturers have warned that high levels of discounting for electric cars cannot continue “indefinitely” amid a downturn in household sales.

Electric vehicle sales rose overall by around 6pc in May, compared to a year earlier, taking their share of the market from 16.9pc to 17.6pc.

That represented a faster rate of growth than the entire car market but the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) warned that the majority of the sales are still to businesses and are being boosted by aggressive price-cutting.

Discounting has reached record highs this year, with the average price cut on a new electric vehicle reaching 10.6pc in April, according to online dealer Auto Trader.

Despite this, the share of EVs sold to private consumers fell from 20.2pc to 18.6pc in May – continuing a trend seen in previous months.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, said the latest sales figures underlined the case for introducing financial support for consumers, such as subsidies or tax cuts.

He said: “Consumers enjoy a plethora of new electric models and some very attractive offers, but manufacturers can’t sustain this scale of support on their own indefinitely.

“Their success so far should be a signpost for the next government that a faster and fairer transition requires carrots, not just sticks.”

Carmakers are racing to sell more EVs to meet net zero targets brought in by the Government in January.

Under the so-called zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, 22pc of all the cars sold in the UK this year must be electric.

The target then rises annually until it reaches 80pc in 2030, before a total ban on new petrol car sales in 2035.

However, manufacturers including Vauxhall owner Stellantis have complained that the targets are outpacing consumer demand.

That has prompted Stellantis and rival Ford to warn they could be forced to restrict sales of petrol cars in Britain in order to artificially boost their EV sales figures.

Bosses are also warning that they are not prepared to cut EV prices to unprofitable levels in a bid to boost take-up.

On Wednesday, the SMMT – which represents the car industry – echoed those concerns, arguing that discounting ultimately “undermines the ability of companies to invest in next-generation technologies”.

It added: “The market performance underlines the need for the next government to provide private consumers with meaningful purchase incentives.”

It came as overall sales in the car market grew for the 22nd month in a row, with registrations rising by 1.7pc.

Jamie Hamilton, automotive partner and head of electric vehicles at Deloitte, said: “The overall market share of electric vehicles is also well below the required 22pc, as set out in the ZEV mandate. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/05/electric-car-discounts-unsustainable-record-price-cuts/

This is the key sentence:

Despite this, the share of EVs sold to private consumers fell from 20.2pc to 18.6pc in May – continuing a trend seen in previous months. 

Generous govt subsidies are keeping fleet sales going, but EV sales will never get anywhere near target unless private buyers switch.

Extrapolating back from the SMMT figures, only 8% of EV sales in May went to private buyers.

Despite the unaffordable discounting, EV registrations are still only at 16.1% YTD, barely higher than a year ago.

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https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

Motor manufacturers are now between a rock and a hard place. If they cut prices to boost EV sales, they lose money. If they cur petrol car sales, they lose money. And if they don’t meet the ZEV target, they also lose money.

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June 5, 2024 at 08:44AM

Permanent Tax Subsidy? Solar’s 15 extensions

From MasterResource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“But nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.” (Milton and Rose Friedman, Tyranny of the Status Quo, 1983, p. 115)

“The infant industry argument is a smoke screen. The so-called infants never grow up.” (Milton and Rose Friedman, Free to Choose, 1979, p. 49)

What was said in a previous post regarding wind power’s 14 extensions of the Production Tax Credit also applies to solar power’s Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and its preceding tax favors. From 1978 to the present (46 years), 15 extensions belie the industry’s age-old claims of almost being competitive. Remember the New York Times’ declaration in 1994 (per Enron) that solar was “competitive” with fossil fuels? Remember Solyndra? Joe Romm in 2011: “It is clear that solar and wind are competitive in many situations right now.”

Solar is not an infant industry, having been demonstrated as grid electricity in the nineteenth century and again during World War II. But it is dilute and intermittent, fatal qualities as against fossil-fuel-generated electricity.

A legislative review (source: Congressional Research Service) of the solar tax subsidy reveals fifteen (15) legislative extensions from 1978 to 2022 with the current law extending to 2035 (57 years). A dividing point is the Energy Policy Act of 1992, which tripled solar’s credit (and put wind back into business after a short expiration).

Early History [7 laws; 6 extensions]

  1. The Energy Tax Act of 1978 (P.L. 95-618) created a “temporary” 10 percent tax credit for business property and equipment using energies other than [thought to be rapidly depleting] oil or natural gas. Tax credits for solar (and wind) were refundable (e.g. credits could be received as a payment if the taxpayer could not offset his or her tax liability). Expiration was set for December 31, 1982.
  2. The Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 (P.L. 96-223) expanded the energy credit to subsidize qualifying renewables. The prior tax credits for solar (and wind) were extended for three years (through 1985) and increased to 15 percent. The credit was made nonrefundable.
  3. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 (P.L. 99-514), extended investment tax credits for solar (and geothermal) with a phase down to 10 percent before being set to expire December 31, 1988. The credit for wind was not extended.
  4. The Miscellaneous Revenue Act of 1988 (P.L. 100-647) extended the solar, geothermal, and ocean thermal investment credits at their 1988 rates.
  5. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989 (P.L. 101-239) again extended the credits for solar (and geothermal and ocean thermal).
  6. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-508) extended the tax credits for solar (and geothermal).
  7. The Tax Extension Act of 1991 (P.L. 102-227) again extended the solar (and geothermal) tax credits.

Modern History [9 extensions/modifications]

  1. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 (P.L. 109-58) increased the ITC from 10 percent to 30 percent for commercial/residential solar through 2006.
  2. The Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-432) extended the above credits for one additional year (2007).
  3. The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (P.L. 110-343) substantially expanded and provided the ITC for solar through 2016 (8 years).
  4. The Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 expanded the new solar tax credits for Solar Water Heat, Solar Space Heat, Solar Thermal Electric, Solar Thermal Process Heat, Photovoltaics, and Solar Hybrid Lighting with a home-use cap of $2,000.
  5. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5) modified and extended the ITC energy tax credit through 2016. The $2,000 cap was removed.
  6. The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016 (P.L. 114-113) extended the credit through 2019. The termination date was changed from a placed-in-service deadline to a construction start-date phaseout, with a 26 percent for construction beginning in 2020, and 22 percent for construction commencing in 2021.
  7. The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 (P.L. 115-123) extended the ITC for five years for fiber-optic solar (as well as fuel cell, small wind, microturbine, CHP, and geothermal heat pumps). These energies were eligible for a 30 percent credit through 2019, with rates declining with construction dates.
  8. The Taxpayer Certainty and Disaster Tax Relief Act of 2019 (P.L. 116-260) extended the ITC by two years.
  9. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 extended the Residential Clean Energy Credit, previously called the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), through 2034 (12 years). The credit was increased to 30 percent (from 26 percent). Thirty percent of solar panel purchases were deductible from the total cost of federal taxes. The residential solar tax credit is scheduled to drop to 26 percent in 2033 and 22 percent in 2034.

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June 5, 2024 at 08:03AM

The renewable green energy disaster off the northeastern US is getting worse

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Paul Kolk

 

 

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A slow-motion collapse in the offshore wind industry continues to grow as sticky inflation and supply chain challenges force developers to delay or cancel major projects. In particular, progress towards the Biden administration’s goal of building large amounts of floating wind off the northeastern US coast is just about stalled.

Shell, which  invested in a series of offshore wind projects in recent years, including offshore the northeastern United States, announced last week it would lay off much of its offshore wind business staff as the oil giant advances its program of refocusing on its core oil and gas business.

“We are concentrating on select markets and segments to deliver the most value for our investors and customers,” a Shell spokesperson told Bloomberg. “Shell is looking at how it can continue to compete for offshore wind projects in priority markets while maintaining our focus on performance, discipline and simplification.”

Wind turbine maker Siemens Gamesa announced even bigger layoffs, saying it would cut 15 per cent of its global staff to adjust to a slowing market. The announcement comes after the company reported a €4.6 billion loss for 2023, a losing trend that has continued over the first half of 2024…..

In light of the industry’s gloomy outlook, Westwood notes that “calls are ringing out for governments to provide more specific policy and regulatory support for technology development in addition to cost reduction and investment in port infrastructure to accelerate adoption.”

This is completely predictable, since the voracious rent-seeking wind business invariably calls for more government largesse in response to any challenge that arises. Unfortunately, the call is too often answered by policymakers who have made big political bets on being able to show off arrays of mammoth windmills floating atop various oceans and seas, intermittently producing some electricity – generally 25-30 per cent of nominal plant capacity over time.

This latest bad news for offshore wind could become especially troublesome for US President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, since he has invested so much of his personal political capital in pushing a major buildout of floating offshore wind in the Atlantic northeast. A 2023 Department of Energy fact sheet sets the administration’s goal of installing 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 for the US alone, exceeding Westwood’s just estimated potential for global new capacity by that year by a factor of 10 times over.

To date, regulators under Biden have approved permits for 6 major offshore projects, several of which have already been delayed or cancelled by developers in response to tougher economic factors. In late 2023, major Danish wind developer Orsted cancelled two projects off the Atlantic coast, and Shell divested its 50 per cent stake in another in March of this year. Equinor and BP announced in January they were cancelling plans for their Empire Wind 2 project, citing similar economic concerns.

One US offshore project, Vineyard Wind 1, was able to begin delivering its intermittent 25-30 per cent of 68 megawatts (MW) to Massachusetts residents in January with the activation of 5 offshore turbines. The South Fork Wind Project was also able to commence first deliveries into New York in March, with 12 turbines capable of generating some proportion of 130 MW.

But this is less than one per cent of the Biden goal of 30 GW, with just five and a half years remaining until 2030. Given the wind industry’s insatiable appetite for ever-increasing subsidies and constantly rising utility charges, it’s an open question how many more billions of dollars the federal government will be allowed to print to keep projects alive before the voters start to rebel at the cost.

It’s a rebellion that could commence as soon as this coming November.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/03/renewable-energy-green-offshore-wind-disaster-biden/

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June 5, 2024 at 04:54AM

Red-state AGs sue blue states for imposing climate extremism everywhere

These red-state attorneys general assert that California is “threatening to weaken our national energy system through tort litigation under their state laws and in their state courts.”

via CFACT

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June 5, 2024 at 04:25AM