Author: Iowa Climate Science Education

Pinchbeck’s Soviet Solution

By Paul Homewood

 

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In some ways I pity Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart, who, on the latest edition of their The Rest is Politics podcast, have put themselves through an hour of Net Zero word soup from the new Climate Change Committee CEO Emma Pinchbeck. I have listened to it (or as much as I could endure) so you don’t have to!

But it is alarming that someone like this is anywhere near the levers of power. Take Ms Pinchbeck’s views on electricity costs, for example. In one place, she says:

Gas is more expensive than renewables. And it means that the electricity price that would be cheaper is driven up by the cost of gas. And so our electricity price tracks the gas price.”

To anyone who understands electricity markets, this remark is positioned somewhere between ‘misleading’ and ‘deceptive’: it is only wholesale markets that track gas prices, and since gas prices are now only a whisker above their long-term average, they can no longer be (correctly) blamed for pushing bills up.

Moreover, she repeatedly invites Campbell, Stewart and the listeners to believe that renewables are not the problem. She mentions ‘cheap renewables’ three times, as well as other terms insinuating the same idea.

But in another part of the interview, she seems to recognise that it’s policy costs pushing bills up:

Our policy costs sit on the electricity part of our bill… what we have accidentally done is make the fuel of the future…more expensive with a policy choice.

(The ellipses there cover a positive deluge of word soup, but I think I have captured her meaning correctly.)

What is more, she seems to understand that those policy charges to consumers are covering the costs of all the green nonsense:

…the decision to put those costs on electricity is in one way logical because some of that is financing new electricity infrastructure.”

She is not wrong. Analysis of Ofgem data (Figure 1), shows that policy costs are now 33% of the electricity bill, 20% of it being renewables subsidies and most of the rest being Net Zero related. Net Zero is also driving up grid costs (the red sections of the pie).

Figure 1: Breakdown of median electricity bill

Figure 2 shows the difference in bills today and bills ten years ago. It is almost solely about Net Zero.

Figure 2: How bills changed between 2015 and 2025.

Having somehow contrived to get two somewhat contradictory thoughts – ‘gas is driving up electric bills’ and ‘renewables subsidies are driving up electricity bills’ – in her head, Ms Pinchbeck seems mystified that people find her unconvincing.

So when they hear people like me telling them that renewables are cheap or these technologies are cheap and they see their bill, they think…we must be making it up.’

And they would be right to think so.

Ms Pinchbeck proceeds to her solution. Which is to move those policy costs off electricity bills and onto taxation. This in an odd remedy, given that she has told everyone that electricity bills track gas prices.

It is also remarkable given she clearly understands that the policy levies represent the costs of “new electricity infrastructure”. As most of my readers probably know, prices convey information about underlying costs, supply and demand to buyers. Removing levies from electricity bills would simply destroy that information flow. In other words, the Pinchbeck solution would have electricity buyers and sellers operate entirely in the dark.

This is, of course, where the Soviet Union went wrong. I suppose we should cut Ms Pinchbeck some slack, because she was only seven when the wall came down. And I might cut Messrs Campbell and Stewart some slack for failing to pick up the contradictions or idiocies – neither are experts, and Ms Pinchbeck’s word soup is nothing if not impenetrable. But it will still be be depressing if, having appointed someone so young to such an important position, the UK has to learn the lessons of history all over again.

Andrew Montford

The author is the director of Net Zero Watch.

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July 18, 2025 at 10:22AM

Storm Chasing with Michael Mann: How to Stay in the Climate Spotlight

Charles Rotter

It’s hard not to notice when Michael Mann’s name appears in the author list of a climate paper—after all, he’s about as synonymous with climate alarm as Al Gore is with PowerPoint slides. One could say spotting his name in a paper about “intensification of the strongest nor’easters” is like finding Waldo in a crowd where everyone’s wearing a red-and-white striped shirt—inevitable, but somehow still amusing.

To the meat of the matter: this paper by Chen et al., published in PNAS in July 2025, claims that the strongest nor’easters affecting the U.S. East Coast are not only getting stronger in terms of maximum wind speed, but also producing more precipitation over time, especially since 1940. Naturally, this finding is attributed to—you guessed it—“a warming world,” though, as is tradition, the underlying uncertainties and methodological sleights-of-hand are tucked away in the statistical shadows.

The paper leans heavily on reanalysis data (ERA5, 1940–2025) and cyclone tracking algorithms to cobble together a historical record, touting its “homogeneity” and “comprehensiveness.” Yet, buried within the technical details, there is acknowledgment that models and data sources are patchy at best, especially in the pre-satellite era—a recurring Achilles’ heel in this field. Indeed, the authors admit:

“The precise significance levels vary depending on the choice of statistical test, time interval, and effective storm radius… Of specific potential concern is the sensitivity of the trend to changes in input data sources during the transition from traditional surface and radiosonde observations in the early part of the record to multisensor observations in later years. However, we find that the trends of interest are even greater in magnitude… if confined entirely to the satellite era (1979–2025)…”

In other words: the “clear finding” that nor’easters are becoming more intense is more “clear” the shorter and more satellite-heavy the dataset. It’s a bit like insisting your cooking skills are improving because you swapped out a foggy bathroom mirror for an Instagram filter—suddenly everything looks better, but is it really you that changed, or the tool?

The authors do recognize the ambiguity and the wobbly ground their conclusions stand on. Previous studies, as they admit, have reached everything from “no significant change in median cyclone intensity,” to a decrease, or an increase.

“There is, as a result of these confounding factors, considerable divergence in future projections of ETC intensity in past studies, with findings ranging from no significant change in median cyclone intensity, to a decrease, or an increase.”

This is climate science in a nutshell: if you don’t like the answer, wait for another model run.

Quantile regression, the paper’s statistical hammer of choice, is used to hunt for trends in the upper tail of nor’easter intensity. The median shows no significant trend—no surprise—but the “upper quantiles” (think: the rare, nasty storms) show a “statistically significant” upward blip. Here, “significant” is a term of art, stretched nearly to the breaking point. As the authors write:

“Trends… become statistically significant at P < 0.10 for quantiles above 0.66. A similarly pronounced increasing trend at higher quantiles is also evident when applying the Mann–Kendall trend analysis… the results overall lead to a clear finding: the strongest nor’easters are becoming stronger.”

A P-value of 0.10, in case anyone’s forgotten, means there’s a 10% chance the result is due to random noise. For comparison, most scientific disciplines would require P < 0.05 (or even lower). Here, we’re invited to hang public policy on a confidence threshold that wouldn’t pass muster in most reputable poker games.

Then there’s the matter of reanalysis data, which the authors themselves acknowledge is a stitched-together Frankenstein’s monster of models and sparse measurements, especially in the first half of the twentieth century. If this is the bedrock for billion-dollar policy decisions, it’s no wonder taxpayers feel seasick.

The study’s discussion pivots to a familiar script, predicting more damage, more floods, and (curiously) “the counterintuitive possibility of increased winter cold air outbreaks in regions neighboring the U.S. East Coast.” It seems global warming, much like a Las Vegas magician, can pull any outcome from its hat—hotter, colder, drier, wetter, all roads lead to Rome.

And let’s not overlook the obligatory economic scare numbers:

“The total economic loss from [the Ash Wednesday storm, 1962] was estimated at approximately $3 billion (1962 USD). When adjusted for inflation, a storm of similar magnitude striking today would result in losses exceeding $21 billion (2010 USD)… Accounting for inflation, that would be equivalent to $31 billion, which is in proportion to the typical cost of a major landfalling hurricane.”

One almost expects the next sentence to warn of a biblical plague of frogs, with losses adjusted for inflation.

Now, about Michael Mann: his presence on this author list is not just a punchline, it’s a calling card. Mann, famous for the “hockey stick” graph that gave Al Gore a PowerPoint and generations of schoolchildren nightmares, has become something of a celebrity meteorologist—equal parts scientist, activist, and legal enthusiast. If his name’s on it, you can bet the conclusion will be that weather is getting worse, and humanity is to blame. It’s less a finding than a branding strategy.

Yet, let’s give credit where due. The authors stop short of outright libel or slander against skeptics, which is more than can be said for certain climate “debates” on social media. Instead, the rhetorical force is channeled into statistical acrobatics and economic extrapolations. The real comedy here is not in the intent to deceive, but in the perennial hope that just one more regression, one more reanalysis, will finally clinch the case for “unprecedented” danger.

In summary, this paper offers a case study in climate science as performance art. There’s an obligatory nod to uncertainty, a parade of statistical significance at thresholds so generous even carnival barkers might blush, and a supporting cast led by Michael Mann, the maestro of the climate anxiety industrial complex. For policymakers and the public, the lesson is simple: always read the fine print—and if the numbers look scary, check who’s holding the calculator.

HT/rhs


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July 18, 2025 at 08:06AM

Leasing Giant Blames Massive Losses On Used EV Prices

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Andy Bartlett

From Fleet News:

 

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Lex Autolease, part of Lloyds Banking Group, has reported a £10.6 million loss in its annual accounts, just three years after pre-tax profits hit more than half a billion pounds.

The vehicle leasing giant – ranked second in last year’s Fleet News FN50 – blamed the decrease in reported profit on a combination of factors.

They included an increase on underlying depreciation charges on the funded fleet, lower profits on the disposal of vehicles, particularly electric vehicles (EVs), and an increase borrowing costs from interest rate rises.

Full story here.

£10.6 million might not sound like a lot. But last year profits fell from £544 million to £124 million for the same reason, as Fleet News reported at the time:

Pre-tax profits for vehicle leasing company Lex Autolease have plummeted by more than £400 million, according to newly-filed accounts.

Blame, in part, has been levelled at lower profits on the disposal of vehicles “due to market conditions” and increased interest expense on its borrowings.

In 2023, almost half (46%) of new vehicle orders were for electric vehicles (EVs) – a similar proportion to the 47% reported in 2022.

The company says that one of the key drivers of performance are the fluctuations in residual values (RVs) of fleet vehicles.

However, it said: “Significant price reductions have been seen through 2023 as significant volumes of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have come into the market for the first time.”

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/lex-autolease-profits-fall-by-400m-used-evs-blamed-for-reduction

These losses reflect the lack of demand for EVs. New cars are having to be heavily discounted to meet ZEV targets, meaning second hand prices drop. Even at lower prices, private buyers still show little interest.

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July 18, 2025 at 07:48AM

It Was Hot In 1911 As Well, Mr Miliband!

By Paul Homewood

 

With Miliband wanting to weaponize a few days of sunshine, with stupid claims that “our way of life is under threat”, we might care to look back at the summer of 1911!

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CET daily maxes show that the heatwave did not get going until July in 1911, unlike this year’s. But it then dominated British weather until late August.

We’ll have to see whether this year does the same. But the cause of the hot weather in 1911 was exactly the same in 1911 as it is this year – the sun. When the sun shines brightly in summer, and for days on end, the weather tends to be hot!

Unless Miliband has a plan to stop the sun from shining, he should go back to his sixth-form politics, where he can do no more damage.

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

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July 18, 2025 at 05:38AM