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December 5, 2024 at 08:06AM

By Paul Homewood

 

EV sales crept up to 18.7% YTD, despite a rise in November, driven largely by unsustainable discounting, according to SMMT:

 

 

 

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2024/12/discounts-drive-ev-growth-amid-wider-market-contraction/

 

 

There is little prospect that EVs will get anywhere next year’s ZEV Mandate of 28%.

SMMT write:

Deliveries of new cars fell by -1.9% in the UK during November with 153,610 joining the road, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). It is the second consecutive monthly decline, and the third decline in four months,¹ as the market contracts amid the race to meet tough EV market share targets.

Demand from private buyers, among whom uptake has waned for two years, dropped by -3.3% to 58,496 units, accounting for fewer than four in 10 (38.1%) new registrations. Fleet purchases, which represent the bulk (59.9%) of the market, fell by -1.1% to 91,993 units, while low-volume business demand rose by 5.2% to 3,121 units.

Manufacturers are committed to the mandate’s ambition, but market demand for EVs remains weak and below the levels expected when the regulation was drawn up by the previous government. The industry now expects the UK’s BEV market share to be 18.7% in 2024, although a strong December performance could raise that to 19% – still, however, short of the 22% mandated target for the year.

This year’s growth cements Britain as Europe’s second biggest new BEV market by volume and closing the gap on leader Germany. It reflects long-term manufacturer investment in new models, with more than 130 zero emission choices now available – up more than 42% on a year ago⁴ – on which the sector is offering record discounts. While this is providing some success, the scale of discounting, worth some £4 billion across 2024, is unsustainable and poses a risk to future consumer choice and UK economic growth.⁵ With the right, responsive market regulation, however, the UK could hold a commanding position as an exemplar global market for a rapid zero emission transition.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2024/12/discounts-drive-ev-growth-amid-wider-market-contraction/

 

The SMMT still have their head in the sand, maintaining that more subsidies from government will solve the problem.

As well as the £4 billion hit on discounting, which equates to £12000 per car, the motor industry is also suffering from the reduction in ICE cars forced on them by the mandates, which is evidenced by the drop in private sales, which have fallen by 71K on YTD:

 

As we know, EV sales to private buyers are rock bottom, so that reduction is the main reason why petrol/diesel sales have fallen this year.

Market share of EVs is up 2.4% year-on-year, so at this rate they might reach 21% next year, as long as discounting is continued. But the target of 28% is pie in the sky.

At the end of November, EV registrations were 60,000 short of target. At £15000 a go, this will potentially cost the industry £900 million.

Carmakers can carry forward shortfalls, but that would be a mug’s game. If they cannot hit this year’s target, they certainly won’t hit next year’s. There are other minor exemptions too, but these will make little difference.

And they can buy surplus allowances from other manufacturers. But remember that 60,000 is the net shortage. If there are, say, 20,000 surplus allowances available in the market, there will be a gross shortage of 80,000 amongst the rest.

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December 5, 2024 at 08:02AM

By Paul Homewood

Best laid plans ………………

 

 

Homeowners say they feel "betrayed" and "conned" after struggling to sell their properties due to spray foam insulation fitted under a government scheme.

More than 160 people got in touch after BBC research found that a quarter of the UK’s biggest lenders are refusing homes where spray foam is found in the roof space.

Robbie Anderson told the BBC he felt "taken advantage of" after his house sale fell through despite having the insulation fitted under the previous government’s Green Homes Grant scheme.

Liberal Democrat MP Tom Gordon has written to the energy secretary calling for "decisive action", while the Department for Housing has said it is consulting with lenders.

Estimates suggest as many as 250,000 homes in the UK have this type of insulation, with much of it installed under the previous government’s official scheme.

The Green Homes Grant scheme, which ran in England, saw installations completely subsidised for those on certain benefits.

But some of the UK’s biggest mortgage firms are reluctant to deal with homes with spray foam insulation due to concerns over poor fittings leaving moisture trapped and roof timbers at risk of decay.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86qz9g59v4o 

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There is the usual BBC disinformation about “cowboys”. But the homeowners’ own stories show this is a lie, as many had used certified installers.

It’s another reminder that the obsession with Net Zero often has unintended effects.

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December 5, 2024 at 05:32AM

The use of an ‘apocalyptic tone’ doesn’t seem to work while tipping points are often ‘vague’, ‘confusing’ and may give ‘an illusion of precise scientific understanding’, say the researchers. They go on to demand more ‘climate action’, itself a vague and confusing term.
– – –
A group of scientists, including researchers from Rutgers University-New Brunswick, Princeton University and Carleton University, has questioned the accuracy and utility of the metaphor “tipping point” in calling attention to the threat of climate change, says Phys.org.

The phrase, while perhaps initially useful as a clarion call that warns about sudden, drastic changes, may now be confusing the public and impeding action, researchers said.

Writing a perspective in Nature Climate Change, the scientists, from the Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Princeton’s Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment, and Climate Resilient Societies through Equitable Transformations (ReSET) Lab at Carleton University as well as six other academic institutions, argue that the notion of tipping points, when referencing physical and human aspects of the Earth’s changing climate, is not well-defined and often applied inappropriately.

There also is no evidence, they said, that the apocalyptic tone of the phrasing is driving action.

The researchers said the public is more likely to respond to threats that are perceived as relatively certain, near-term and nearby than to what are viewed as abstract dangers, the timing of which are either highly uncertain or unpredictable.

“While many of the physical phenomena bundled under the ‘tipping points’ label are systemically important and well worth studying, the tipping-points framing does not necessarily highlight—and may obscure—their most critical or consequential aspects,” said Robert Kopp, the paper’s first author, a Distinguished Professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the Rutgers School of Arts and Sciences, and a Visiting Fellow at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.
. . .
“Tipping points” and their multiple uses in science and beyond aren’t well defined and provide an illusion of precise scientific understanding, the authors said.

“Attempts to subsume so many issues and behaviors under the same label and common interpretive framework do not advance science,” said co-author Michael Oppenheimer, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences at Princeton University.

As the use of “tipping points” has expanded to describe not only climatic events but social ones—ranging from social cohesion to food prices—its all-encompassing use has rendered it necessarily vague. This is not helpful toward inspiring action, the authors said.
. . .
The scientists said they aren’t the first to raise concerns about employing “tipping point” in public discourse about climate change. In 2006, in the midst of an initial surge of popularity surrounding the phrase, editorial writers at Nature critiqued the phrase in an essay for its overemphasis on deeply uncertain science and the risk that such a focus could lead to fatalism.

“Scientific framings that are intended to be policy-relevant ought to be subject to scientific scrutiny,” Gilmore said. “To the extent scientists continue to talk about tipping points, the communicative effects of that framing should be a topic of research.”

Full article here.

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December 5, 2024 at 04:15AM