In Cop 29’s “Finance agreement” diplomacy is truly the art of agreeing to nothing. There is no agreement of substance here because there is no substance to this agreement. Each side gets its number someday and that is all there is to it.
Let’s look at the actual text to see the nothing. But first recall what was supposed to happen. The Paris Agreement committed the developed country members to providing $100 billion a year to the developing countries through 2025. COP 29 was simply supposed to revise that annual payment up beginning in 2026. That did not happen, not even close.
The fiasco started when the developing countries demanded huge impossibly sums centered on $1.3 trillion. That set in motion a series of side steps leading to the present agreement which is very different from the intended goal.
To begin with the $1.3 trillion annual payment is there but it is “by 2035” so ten years from now not in 2026. I can see delaying it until a few years after Trump leaves office but these folks are wedded to their five year plans.
Moreover this money need not come from the developed countries and certainly not from their governments. First it is to come “from all public and private sources.” Second the eligible sources have been expanded to include all the developing countries as well as the developed ones.
These two provisions have fundamentally changed the concept of climate finance. It used to just include mostly government money going from developed to developing countries. Now it sounds like any climate related investment or contribution that winds up in a developing country counts.
Working this out will be supremely challenging. For example if China builds itself an offshore wind array, and they are building plenty, is that climate finance? How about if they build it in Indonesia?
Oh and it looks like coal fired power plants count too. In early drafts of the agreement counting coal plants was ruled out because people were doing that in the name of adaptation. Having electricity certainly helps when extreme weather hits. But that prohibition does not appear in the final agreement so the practice looks allowable.
Then there is the other big number, the $300 billion a year. This is widely assumed to replace the $100 billion a year mandated by the Paris Agreement through 2025. For example CBS has a headline that yells “deal reached at UN’s COP29 climate talks for $300 billion a year (up from $100 billion).”
This is incorrect as here too the new agreement says the goal is “by 2035.” Nor is all (or any) of this distant sum necessarily coming from developed countries as the yearly $100 billion had to. The new agreement just says “with developed country Parties taking the lead.” (Parties means to the Paris Agreement.)
“Taking the lead” is an extremely vague concept. It might mean paying over half say $151 billion. Or just being the biggest donor at say $20 billion. Or even just running a bunch of promotions to get private investors to invest, which might only millions.
The overall fiasco becomes clear when we ask what the finance requirement or goal is for 2026? There is none, nor for any other year ahead until 2035. Nor is anyone responsible for meeting those far distant goals.
In short this is a huge mess and nothing like what the Paris agreement called for. Regulatory confusion is a many-year field of mine and this is as bad as I have ever seen. But this is what you get when a complex big money deal is struck at 2:40 am Sunday by people who have not slept much for days.
Surely the next few COPs and many lesser meetings will be spent trying to straighten out this hopelessly vague and seriously misstated agreement. Or if they want to wait until 2035 with no finance before then, that is fine with me.
A fascinating sidebar is that the developing countries reportedly have something like a combined cost of $10 trillion in official climate plans through 2030. These are all contingent on getting finance which under this agreement need not happen.
The big money game has just opened and it is wall to wall confusion. Stay tuned to see how it plays.
Fundamental components of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) paradigm fail molecular chemistry.
According to a new study, the notion that we can and must reduce atmospheric CO2 so as to avoid climate catastrophe (e.g., runaway global warming or ocean acidification) does not withstand probing academic scrutiny.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a mitigation strategy proposing to sequester CO2 underground to reduce emissions to “net zero” by 2050. The practice is poised to cost tens of trillions of dollars over the coming decades. New analysis suggests high or ambitious CCS scenarios are presumed to mitigate about half of today’s emissions by 2050. But these economically draconian CCS scenarios are projected to cost US$30 trillion more than those that only mitigate about one-tenth of today’s emissions. Either way, the costs of CCS are astronomical.
But can CCS actually do what is intended and reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations? Chemistry says no, CCS “will not reduce the atmospheric concentration of CO2 at all.”
“The crux of the issue is that, unlike photosynthesis by plants, perfect sequestration of CO2 will no magically release the O2 that has effectively been ‘sequestered’ in the CO2 and H2O molecules produced by combustion.”
“If the fuel was made of pure carbon, then the net result in the composition of the atmosphere would be a slight reduction in the O2 concentration…and a slight concomitant increase in the CO2 concentration due to the slight shrinking of the denominator.”
Regarding the alarmist “ocean acidification” narrative, the modern trend of rising atmospheric CO2 is assumed to be driving changes in pH levels. However, the chemical basis for this narrative is dubious.
Using the stoichiometric combustion equation, we learn that for every 1 ppm of CO2 increase due to burning fossil fuels, the O2 concentrations decrease by about 2.15 ppm. (For example, over a 20-year period, CO2 increases by 50 ppm as the O2 declines by ~130 ppm.) But this conceptualization engenders fundamental questions for the paradigm that says humans drive changes in the oceans’ pH levels.
“If the reduction in the atmospheric O2 concentration is directly related to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, then how can there be enough absorption of CO2 by the oceans to cause ocean acidification, especially since the oceans are highly buffered chemically?”
“If the observed reduction in the atmospheric O2 is accounted for by the observed increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, as expected as a result of combustion, then where does the extra CO2 come from that can cause ocean acidification?”
These are just a few of the many other chemistry-based challenges to the AGW narrative described in the paper. It is well worth a read.
This fictional story is “inspired by true events”, as they like to label movies these days. The setting is COP29 last week in Baku, where the Blue Zone is exclusive to the 17,680 official reps (“Parties”) and 16,305 official hangers-on, the latter dubbed “Party Overflow”.[1] The COP official list included “overflows” such as the Victorian Trades Hall Council, the uber-loopy Psychologists for a Safe Climate, GetUp zealots, Pimlico State High Qld, “Make Polluters Pay”, and a real-life Premier (Malinauskas, SA). I noticed has-been prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who is remembered fondly only by the ABC. The un-endorsed climate rabble was corralled in the Green Zone by herders from the “Extreme Hangout” event organisers.
Charming young “Isabella” was one of the 1,914 delegates from Brazil. Sporting her Blue Zone lanyard, she chatted with “Leander Ocker”, one of the 394 Australians officiated to the climate conference.
Isabella’s eyes widened as Leander told her about the cheapness of renewables, nuclear evils and how his climate minister, Chris Bowen, was making Australia a clean-energy superpower.
When he paused, Isabella tipped him a wink and announced: “Dinner. Vamos lá!” [Portuguese: Let’s go!]. Leander had a husband and three kids back in Melbourne’s South Yarra. But probably, What goes on at Baku, stays at Baku.
In line at the pavilion’s food counter, Isabella loaded her tray with chicken, vegies, a side plate of salad, and some tropical juice. That’s $US60 plus a $US10 coffee.
While Leander inspected the plastic-wrapped beefburger ($US30), Isabella winked again and peeled off to grab a vacant table. Leander paid the cashier. Dinner done, Leander never saw Isabella again. She forgot to give him her WhatsApp.The true story behind this script is in Kenyan e-magazine Nation, which also goes to Uganda and Tanzania. I baulked at the paywall of 100 Kenyan shillings a day. But I was enticed by the headline, “COP29: As world meets to negotiate climate finance, African delegates at conference struggle to afford food.” The sub-head was “Surviving on dates”.[2] I recalled that dates are a staple food of the Bedouin, so a date-and-water diet might be viable.
When I paid my tax-deductible $A1.19 to read the piece, I found I’d misinterpreted the sub-head: it was about half-starving she-activists at Baku hooking up with Westerners to score a feed. Nation’s reporter, Leon Lidigu, cited many accounts from famished Third World delegates, including “Isabella” our Brazilian food seductress. She told him, “I’ve been low-key surviving off lunch and dinner date invites from my male global north friends who can afford it here. To be honest, it feels like they are ‘living’ around here while we merely exist.”
Calorie-scrounging was so common that one COP smarty created a WhatsApp group listing all events involving coffee urns and free biscuits and cheese. “The document has spread like wildfire,” said Isabella to Lidigu. A colleague was reported, “I’m just out here surviving by the grace of God and persevering for the love of my country and continent.” A sponsored delegate from Uganda had to phone her mother, a trader, to send food money: Mum got it from money-lenders.Lidigu disclosed that the UN sponsor rate for Baku was $US291 per day ($A447). This looked generous but price-gouging Baku hotels grabbed the lion’s share. They hiked normal rates around eight-fold, gazumped your booking if they got a better offer and even blackmailed you on arrival with take-it-or-leave-it surcharges.[3] This pushed Third Worlders into beds in Baku suburbs, with savings eroded by Uber trips to the free COP bus-lines. “If you saw how dingy the places we are currently staying at you will be shocked,” a Kenyan negotiator said. Baku’s best hotel, the Shah Palace, quoted $US199,299 for the COP fortnight ($A305,392) or $US12,059 a night ($A18,484). I hope Minister Chris Bowen found somewhere more economical for himself and his retinue.
Meanwhile, the affluent pigged out at COP’s fancy eateries. Lidigu’s story included pics of tables littered with barely-sampled meals ready to be binned. Some First Worlders, like Miki Moieni, executive director of Youth Climate Save Canada, bitched about the organisers’ non-vegetarian and unsustainably-wrapped offerings — not that the cash-strapped delegates cared. Moieni posted on LinkedIn:
Caffeine is free flowing as are sweets – with many delegates lining up for free coffees from pavilions deemed to have the best. Being on your fifth cup of coffee is a common occurrence met with relatable giggles. With delegates hyped up on sugar, alcohol, and processed food, lack of sleep and time outside, how can we make sound decisions on the future of healthy, nutritious, sustainable food systems?
In counterpoint, a delegate from Tanzania told Nation he had been obliged to skip a session, Making Climate Finance Work for Climate Action in Agriculture and Food Security, “because I have to go to a local market that I am told is quite far, to see if I can get affordable food to eat. The cost of food at COP is just too much for me.”
A Filipino delegate, broke after barely a day at the gabfest, said she’d been surviving entirely on the side-snacks. COP rejected appeals from the Global South for free meals.
Baku’s hunger games put a new perspective on COP’s hordes. Kenya, for instance, had 288 delegates, Uganda 412 and Tanzania 353. Few, I’d say none, paid their own way: [4] it was all sponsored by First World grants, delegates’ own long-suffering national treasuries, or diverted from charities’ funds meant to conquer poverty.[5]
In what the vulgar Donald Trump has called the “shithole countries”, only well-fed elites give a fig about the climate. Burundi, for example, is the world’s second-poorest country, behind South Sudan. Burundi sent 170 freeloaders to Baku. Back home, food insecurity is twice as bad as the rest of sub-Saharan Africa and 60 per cnt of kids suffer chronic malnutrition.
In the countryside where 90 per cent of the population scratch a living, fewer than 2 per cent have electricity, which presently comes from fossil fuels (33%) and hydro (62%). The place hasn’t got many hut-top solar panels with battery back-up . Burundi’s still getting over a 12-year civil war. Inflation runs at 20-30 per cent. GDP per capita per day is about $US2.50. I doubt Burundi peasants obsess about the one degree of global warming in the past century.[6]Just ahead of Burundi on living standards is the war-torn Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which sent a handy 401 delegates to Baku.[7] DRC produces 70% of the world’s cobalt and is Africa’s largest copper producer. But decades of rapacious dictatorship have kept this national treasure-trove of minerals – required for so-called “clean-energy” — in an abyss of poverty. One president stayed in power 32 years, another for 17. In the malaria-ridden countryside barely 1 per cent have electricity access. I doubt DRC peasants fret about their CO2 emissions.
COP29 has played out like some theatre of the absurd. The African delegates wanted us First Worlders to hand them another $US2.7 trillion ($AUD 4140,000,000,000) by 2030, no questions asked. At next year’s COP30 in Brazil, this funding should at least put an end to nubile but hungry delegates having to go on lousy dates with Australians.
Now that the contrails from 50,000 departing delegates are fading, the big question is, “What did all this ‘Conference of Parties’ i.e. COP29 achieve? Well nothing in terms of the stated goal of putting the globe on track for net zero emissions. After each of the previous 28 COPs, global emissions have continued to rise at an unabated pace, thanks to China, India, Russia and Third Worlders going for broke on coal and other fossil fuels.
COPs are no longer about CO2. They’re about “developing” countries’ cash ambitions. This includes African despots getting stacks of unaccountable funding from us prosperous nations. The original plan at COP15 in Paris was for suckers like us to bankroll a Green Climate Fund (GCF), disbursed by a South Korean-based climate bureaucracy.
The Paris agreement was for the West to pay the Fund at least $US100 billion a year for Third World climate projects and boondoggles. Adding up the three tranches to date, the Fund seems to have acquired $US33 billion, including recent pledges. This sum is rather less than the $US800 billion-or-so if everyone at Paris had kept their original promises, and President-elect Trump is certainly not going to pay anything further.
Australia? Incredibly, it was Prime Minister Tony Abbott who tipped in $US185 million from us taxpayers to help kickstart the Fund. His nemesis, Malcolm Turnbull, promised at least another $1 billion – the currency type, US or Aussie dollars, is literally of no account because none of it materialised.
Labor, via mad Climate Minister Chris Bowen, has now thrown a further $A50 million of our hard-earned into the Fund. This made a little wave of virtue signalling to impress his fellow delegates at Baku, and it covers our taxpayer contributions up to 2027. We got a special, oh-so-heartwarming ‘thank you’ from the Fund.
What’s really going on is that the Fund is so hopeless[8] that countries, including Australia, are by-passing it and using other routes to waste our money. Australia actually sprayed $1.6 billion abroad from 2020-23 to fight climate change, I’m officially informed. Our total for 2020-25 will be $3 billion, according to DFAT’s website. Much of that is going to mendicant island states, whose main industry is inventing climate harms to get money from gullible donors. Contrary to endless claims by Western governments and their legacy media, these islands are not threatened by rising seas[9] nor by any increases in so-called climate-fuelled cyclones.[10]
This scandal is replicated in our big-lick but little-known wastage of money in Aussie dollars going to the World Bank. Our contributions total $A987 million for the period 2021 to 2025.[11]World Bank policy today is to allocate 45 per cent of its grants to the Third World for climate causes. Oxfam UK last month published a study claiming that, across the World Bank’s entire climate-grant portfolio from 2017-23, actual spending varied from budgeted amounts by 26 to 43 per cent above or below the claimed figure. This meant the World Bank lost track of somewhere between $US24-41 billion, nearly 40 per cent of its entire climate spending. Oxfam trashed the bank for
serious flaws of assessing and reporting climate finance based only on what a project aims to do and not on whether those planned climate finance figures were actually spenton the identified climate finance activities.
Pro rata, it looks like the World Bank has no idea what it’s done with some hundred million or so of our billion-dollar donation. I thought we had a Department of Finance to safeguard our money?
Tony Thomas’s latest book from Connor Court is Anthem of the Unwoke – Yep! The other lot’s gone bonkers. $34.95 here
[3] The Art Club hotel in Baku upped its rates from $US82 to $US530-686 a night for the conference fortnight. The hotels took a leaf from the COP27 template at Sharm El Sheik, where hoteliers fixed minimum prices. At Glasgow’s COP26 the gouging forced many delegates to billet an hour away at Edinburgh.
[4] I notice the Fiji delegation of 55 was 95% funded by non-Fijians.
[5] The World Bank now targets that 45% of its grants by 2025 will go to climate projects
[6] The theory of global warming has it that warming is lowest at the equator and greatest at the poles. This is another theory “fail”. The Antarctic hasn’t warmed in 70 years. And a WMO report this year says African temperature rise from 1991 to 2023 was 0.3deg per decade, fasterthan the global average. (Key Messages, pii). Keep in mind that few temperature stations in Africa have a reliable long-term record anyway.
[7] At COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, DRC actually had the third largest troupe after UAE and Brazil
[8] Australian Howard Bamsey was an early GCF executive director. At a board meeting in 2018, the chaos was such that he finished the meeting by tabling a surprise resignation effective immediately (“pressing personal reasons”) and walked out of the room. The 24-member board had spent the first two days of the four-day meeting quarrelling about the agenda, and the next two days in such acrimony that it never approved the intended $US1b for 11 new grants to help its basket-case client States “mitigate and adapt” to climate change. The previous board minutes ran to 111 single-spaced pages plus 130 pages of appendixes, in total about 100,000 words. Maybe poor Mr Bamsey couldn’t face another 100,000 word write-up. (Source: Myself, in Spectator, August 2018, paywalled). Bamsey, a hardy individual, was among the delegates at Baku.
Despite concerns of erosion driven by sea level rise, no published evidence exists of pervasive erosion of atoll islands at a global scale. . . Using rich collections of Landsat imagery, this study analyses changes in land area on 221 atolls in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Results show that, between 2000 and 2017, the total land area on these atolls has increased by 61.74 km2 (6.1 %) from 1007.60 km2 to 1069.35 km2. Most of the change in land area resulted from island building within the Maldives and on atolls in the South China Sea. Since 2000, the Maldives have added 37.50 km2 of land area, while 16.57 km2 of new islands have appeared within the South China Seas Spratly and Paracel chains.
[10] The IPCC’s latest Working Group 1 report, as distinct from “Summaries” written and vetted by its political masters, found human influence on weather as follows: Heatwaves, yes: heavy rain, yes; flooding, no; meteorological/hydrological drought, no; ecological/agricultural drought, yes; tropical cyclones, no; winter storms, no; thunderstorms, no; tornados, no; hail, no; lightning, no; extreme winds, no; fire weather, yes.
[11] Official response to my inquiries, November 22.
The Week That Was: 2024 11-23 (November 23, 2024) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week:“”The important thing is not to stop questioning; curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when contemplating the mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of the mystery every day. The important thing is not to stop questioning; never lose a holy curiosity.”– Albert Einstein (from statement to William Miller, as quoted in LIFE magazine (May 2, 1955))
Number of the Week: 14 Drilling Records
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This Week begins with Richard Lindzen’s discussion on recent political movements that falsely claim to be based on science. Vijay Jayaraj discusses a conference of important nations that the legacy media missed, or misrepresented. Delancyplace.com discusses a few issues in Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Roy Spencer and John Christy discuss corrections needed to the measurements by satellites when the satellites drift too far from the planned orbit. Owen Klinsky alerts the US to the Winter Reliability Assessment by North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Roger Caiazza continues to express concern over New York’s future reliance on Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR), that appears imaginary. A brief discussion on a Bomb Cyclone concludes this Week.
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Rumors State: Some of the most misleading arguments for drastic action to “combat climate change” include phrases such as “The Science says.” Science says nothing; in physical science it is the physical evidence that reveals the validity of a claim. Writing in the American Mind, MIT Professor emeritus of Atmospheric Science Richard Lindzen reveals “How a political movement invented its own scientific basis.” He begins with:
“Modern political movements have frequently laid claim to being based in science, from immigration restriction and eugenics (in the U.S. after WWI), to antisemitism and race ideology (in Hitler’s Germany), to Communism and Lysenkoism (under Stalin). Each of these falsely invoked a scientific consensus that convinced highly educated citizens, who were nonetheless ignorant of science, to set aside the anxieties associated with their ignorance. Since all scientists supposedly agreed, there was no need for them to understand the science.
Of course, this version of “the science” is the opposite of science itself. Science is a mode of inquiry rather than a source of authority. However, the success that science achieves has earned it a measure of authority in the public’s mind. This is what politicians frequently envy and exploit.
The climate panic fits into this same pattern and, as in all the preceding cases, science is in fact irrelevant. At best, it is a distraction which has led many of us to focus on the numerous misrepresentations of science entailed in what was purely a political movement.”
Lindzen traces how the political movement began to demonize carbon dioxide, essential for photosynthesis, which creates the food required for all complex life, then asserts:
“Excited politicians, confronted by this resistance, have frantically changed their story. Rather than emphasizing small changes in their temperature metric (which, itself, is a false measure of climate), they now point to weather extremes which occur almost daily some place on earth, as proof not only of climate change but of climate change due to increasing CO2 (and now also to even more negligible contributors to the greenhouse effect like methane and nitrous oxide). Such extremes show no significant correlation with the emissions. From the political point of view, however, extremes provide convenient visuals that have more emotional impact than small temperature changes.
Birth of a Consensus
The desperation of political figures often drives them as far as to claim that climate change is an existential threat (associated with alleged “tipping points”). This despite a complete absence of theoretical or observational support, and despite the fact that official documents produced to support climate concerns (for example, the Working Group 1 reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC) never come close to substantiating these worst-case projections.
There was one exception to the obsession with warming, and that was the ozone depletion issue. However, even this issue served a purpose. When Richard Benedick, the American negotiator of the Montreal Convention which banned Freon, passed through MIT on his way back from Montreal, he gloated over his success. But he assured us that we hadn’t seen anything yet: we should wait to see what they would do with CO2. In brief, the ozone issue constituted a dry run for global warming. To be sure, the EPA’s activities still include conventional pollution control, but energy dominates.
Of course, the attraction of power is not the only thing motivating politicians. The ability to award trillions of dollars to reorient our energy sector means that there are recipients of these trillions of dollars. These recipients must share just a few percentage points of these trillions of dollars to support the campaigns of these politicians for many election cycles and guarantee the support of these politicians for the policies associated with the reorientation.”
The essay is a severe indictment of the IPCC and its collaborators who ignore the physical evidence in favor of politicized reports as found in the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers. Now in the 29th annual meeting (COP-29), the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are demanding trillions of dollars in payment for the imagined harm that carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels are claimed to cause. Yet the use of fossil fuels (hydrocarbons) helped take the bulk of humanity out of dire poverty. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and After Paris!
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Ignoring the Other World: In the sound and fury created by COP-29, the legacy media ignored or misrepresented another international conference that may become more important than the UN conferences – the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, now including other nations) conference held October 22 to October 24. Vijay Jayaraj of the CO2 Coalition writes:
“Attendees of the 16th annual BRICS summit represented more than 45% of the global population and 35% of global gross domestic product and included representatives of Saudi Arabia, China, India, Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates.
At the heart of the declaration lies a fundamental truth that the Western climate industrial complex often refuses to recognize: Access to affordable and reliable energy and economic development cannot be sacrificed at the altar of ‘decarbonization’ if people are to thrive.
The BRICS leaders emphasize that their immediate goals — poverty eradication, infrastructure development, and economic expansion — require a secure and stable energy supply.”
In BRICS-16’s Kazan Declaration, the attendees recognize that the path to prosperity is not from demanding payments from others for alleged harms from carbon dioxide, but by promoting affordable and reliable energy, as it has been since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The environmental ills created by industrialization can be and are cleaned up and are minor compared to the ills of extreme poverty. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Randomness: The daily blog, Delancyplace.com, was founded by Richard Vague and financed by the Governor’s Woods Foundation. It has no particular theme but produces interesting tidbits. On November 20, it covered Randomness and Reality. The piece began with:
“Today’s selection–from Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Randomness comes to Wall Street:
“’Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands, of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security. The point is dubbed in this book the black swan problem, which we cover in Chapter 7, as it is linked to the problem of induction, a problem that has kept a few thinkers awake at night. It is also related to a problem called denigration of history, as gamblers, investors, and decision-makers feel that the sorts of things that happen to others would not necessarily happen to them.
“’Second, unlike a well-defined, precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. Very rarely is the generator visible to the naked eye. One is thus capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette—and calling it by some alternative ‘low risk’ name. We see the wealth being generated, never the processor, a matter that makes people lose sight of their risks, and never consider the losers. The game seems terribly easy, and we play along carelessly. Even scientists with all their sophistication in calculating probabilities cannot deliver any meaningful answer about the odds, since knowledge of these depends on our witnessing the barrel of reality—of which we generally know nothing.’”
Randomness occurs, such as an asteroid striking Earth and wiping out a whole class of life on Earth. These cannot be predicted or the causes known until after they occur. In climate history there appear to be random events that have not been explained such as the Younger Dryas, a period about 12,900 to 11,700 years ago beginning with sudden cooling and ending with sudden warming. Most life survived the Younger Dryas, a fact that is ignored by those who claim that the current slow warming will eliminate many species. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Changing Seas.
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Imperfect Instruments: On November 2, Roy Spencer posted the October 2024 estimates of temperature trends which contains an explanation of a shift in calculations and why it was necessary. TWTW waited until the full Global Temperature Report for October by John Christy and Spencer was available before discussing this change. The full report is available now. Earlier Spencer wrote: [Boldface in Original]
“Key Points
The older NOAA-19 satellite has now drifted too far through the diurnal cycle for our drift correction methodology to provide useful adjustments. Therefore, we have decided to truncate the NOAA-19 data processing starting in 2021. This leaves Metop-B as the only satellite in the UAH dataset since that date. This truncation is consistent with those made to previous satellites after orbital drift began to impact temperature measurements.
This change reduces recent record global warmth only a little, bringing our calculated global temperatures more in line with the RSS and NOAA satellite datasets over the last 2-3 years.
Despite the reduction in recent temperatures, the 1979-2024 trend is reduced by only 0.01 deg/ C/decade, from +0.16 C/decade to +0.15 C per decade. Recent warmth during 2023-2024 remains record-setting for the satellite era, with each month since October 2023 setting a record for that calendar month.
Background
Monitoring of global atmospheric deep-layer temperatures with satellite microwave radiometers (systems originally designed for daily global weather monitoring) has always required corrections and adjustments to the calibrated data to enable long-term trend detection. The most important of these corrections/adjustments are:
Satellite calibration biases, requiring intercalibration between successively launched satellites during overlaps in operational coverage. These adjustments are typically tenths of a degree C.
Drift of the orbits from their nominal sun-synchronous observation times, requiring empirical corrections from comparison of a drifting satellite to a non-drifting satellite (the UAH method), or from climate models (the Remote Sensing Systems [RSS] method, which I believe the NOAA dataset also uses). These corrections can reach 1 deg. C or more for the lower tropospheric (LT) temperature product, especially over land and during the summer.
Correction for instrument body temperature effects on the calibrated temperature (an issue with only the older MSU instruments, which produced spurious warming).
Orbital altitude decay adjustment for the multi-view angle version of the lower tropospheric (LT) product. [This adjustment is] no longer needed for the UAH dataset as of V6.0, which uses multiple channels instead of multiple angles from a single channel.)
The second of these adjustments (diurnal drift) is the subject of the change made going from UAH v6.0 to v6.1. The following chart shows the equator crossing times (local solar time) for the various satellites making up the satellite temperature record. The drift of the satellites (except the non-drifting Aqua and MetOp satellites, which have fuel onboard to allow orbit maintenance) produces cooling for the afternoon satellites’ LT measurements as the afternoon observation transitions from early afternoon to evening. Drift of the morning satellites makes their LT temperatures warm as their evening observations transition to the late afternoon.”
Spencer graphically shows the drift in satellites used since 1979 with various truncations including the one for NOAA-19 and explains:
“Note that the NOAA-19 satellite has drifted further in local observation time than any of the previous afternoon satellites. The NOAA-19 local observation times have been running outside our training dataset which includes the assumption of a linear diurnal temperature drift with time. So, we have decided it is now necessary to truncate the data from NOAA-19 starting in 2021, which we are now doing as of the October 2024 update.
Thus, begins Version 6.1 of our dataset, a name change meant to reduce confusion and indicate a significant change in our processing. As seen in the above figure [not shown here], 2020 as the last year of NOAA-19 data inclusion is roughly consistent with the v6.0 cutoff times from the NOAA-18 and NOAA-14 (afternoon) satellites.
This type of change in our processing is analogous to changes we have made in previous years, after a few years of data being collected to firmly establish a problem exists. The time lag is necessary because we have previously found that two operating satellites in different orbits can diverge in their processed temperatures, only to converge again later. As will be shown below, we now have sufficient reason to truncate the NOAA-19 data record starting in 2021.
Why Do We Even Include a Satellite if it is Drifting in Local Observation Time?
The reasons why a diurnally drifting satellite is included in processing (with imperfect adjustments) are three-fold: (1) most satellites in the 1979-2024 period of record drifted, and so their inclusion was necessary to make a complete, intercalibrated satellite record of temperatures; (2) two operational satellites (usually one drifting much more than the other) provide more complete sampling during the month for our gridded dataset, which has 2.5 deg. lat/lon resolution; (3) having two (or sometimes 3) satellites allows monitoring of potential drifts, i.e., the time series of the difference between 2 satellite measurements should remain relatively stable over time.
Version 6.1 Brings the UAH Data closer to RSS and NOAA in the Last Few Years
Several people have noted that our temperature anomalies have been running warmer than those from the RSS or NOAA satellite products. It now appears this was due to the orbital drift of NOAA-19 beyond the useful range of our drift correction. The following plot (preliminary, provided to me by John Christy) [plot in original and not shown here] shows that truncation of the NOAA-19 record now brings the UAH anomalies more in line with the RSS and NOAA products.” [Boldface added here]
Spencer stated that the full explanation by Christy and him may take a few days “due to the changes resulting from going from v6.0 to v6.1 of the dataset.” On this issue the post on the “Global Temperature Report: October 2024 with Version 6.1” state:
“In the last two months we’ve suggested some reasons for the continued exceptional warmth of the global atmosphere even as the El Niño was fading away. One of the causes mentioned was the possibility that the correction for the drift of the aging NOAA-19 satellite was unable to keep up with its continued movement and produced spurious warmth over the last few years. By comparing the two current satellites, and especially since Europe’s MetOP-B does not drift due to on-board propulsion, we’ve concluded that the adjustment for NOAA-19’s drift was inadequate, generating temperatures that were too warm as time went on. This same situation has occurred in the past where we initially utilized old satellites beyond their normal lifespan (e.g., NOAA-14, -15, -18 and AQUA) and retroactively removed the latest portion of their records when errors progressively became large enough to affect the anomalies of the last few years. We have now decided to terminate the inclusion of NOAA-19 from 2021 onward. With this adjustment we will identify the product as v6.1. At some point in the near future, we intend to include MetOp-C in the record, so this may introduce some minor changes at that time.
This adjustment produces cooler temperatures after 2021 but does not change the facts that (a) 2023 was the warmest calendar year (and 2024 will be warmer still), (b) April 2024 produced the warmest single monthly anomaly, and (c) every month from October 2023 to September 2024 set monthly temperature records. The overall global trend was reduced slightly from +0.16 to +0.15 °C/decade by this adjustment.” [Boldface added]
Instruments fail, and when they cannot be replaced, adjustments must be made for the failure. Unlike the adjustments to the historic US surface dataset made by NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), Asheville, the adjustments made by Spencer and Christy are public, carefully identified and justified, and recorded. Their actions demonstrate integrity in science, a characteristic which NCEI, Asheville lost. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
*************
Beware of Cold: Owen Klinsky of the Daily Caller alerts the US public of the limited resources much of the US has if this winter is cold based on the 2024–2025 Winter Reliability Assessment by North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Klinsky writes:
“Grid operators have requested the EPA nix the power plant rule in order to protect long-term energy dependability, with four major regional operators filing an amicus brief in support of red states’ legal challenge against the rule, stating it would jeopardize the grid’s ability to reliably meet American energy needs.”
The Winter Reliability Assessment of NERC covers the three-month (December-February) winter period and evaluates the generation resource and transmission system adequacy necessary to meet projected winter peak demands and operating reserves. The assessment identifies potential reliability issues of interest and regional risks. It states:
“Natural gas fuel to generators is threatened this winter by ongoing concerns with natural gas production and delivery in extreme conditions and a potential regional pipeline capacity issue in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Natural gas is an essential fuel for electricity generation in winter. While the natural gas industry is making progress on commercial practices and voluntary commitments to improve winter preparedness, supplies to electric generators remain vulnerable in extreme cold temperatures in many parts of North America, placing electric reliability at risk. As winter approaches, NERC encourages all entities across the gas-electric value chain—from production to the burner tip and the busbar—to take all necessary actions to prepare for extreme cold, keep natural gas flowing, and keep the lights and furnaces on.
At the time of this WRA, the operator of a major interstate natural gas pipeline expansion project serving the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is facing legal challenges to the continued operation of the expanded pipeline. According to a recent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) filing, a halting of the expanded pipeline operations would affect “firm transportation capacity in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama.” These states correspond to the PJM, NPCC-New York, SERC-East, and SERC-Southeast assessment areas. During recent extreme winter weather events, each of these areas has experienced or come dangerously close to a shortfall in electricity supply for which fuel availability was a significant factor. Because foreseeable extreme cold temperatures have the potential to push the existing natural gas supply infrastructure to maximum capacity again this winter, a shutdown of in-service regional natural gas facilities would endanger grid reliability.”
The failure of natural gas power plants in Texas during the last Blue Norther severe cold was due to the failure to have adequate supplies of natural gas on hand. This was a failure of the “just in time” policies of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). If this winter is cold, we will see whether this EPA and litigating environmental groups care about electrical reliability for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. See links under Energy Issues – US.
*************
The Copper Plate Assumption: Energy analyst Roger Caiazza continues to express his concern that New York’s Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act requires Net Zero without identifying so-called Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR). Caiazza summarizes his previous work and presents another analysis by Tim Knauss, based on the work of Cornell’s Anderson Lab headed by Lindsay Anderson. Knauss writes:
“To back up the massive quantities of solar and wind power that will provide most of our future electricity, the state power grid will need some new, mystery resource equal in size to the entire generating fleet of today.
That level of detail sets their work apart. Many of the studies that look at phasing in renewable energy pretend that the electric grid is a single pool of electrons that flow from point to point without constraint. It is known as the ‘copper plate’ assumption.
In reality, the New York electric grid is a complex, lopsided network that has been stitched together piece by piece over a century. There are limits on how much electric current can move from one area to another.
Based on Anderson’s work, Knauss writes:
“At Cornell University, Professor Lindsay Anderson and fellow researchers have been studying this problem. Given the specific layout of New York’s electric grid, they asked, how much of this new power source would be needed in addition to all the solar and wind?
A staggering amount, it turns out.
Just 15 years from now, the electric grid will need about 40 gigawatts of new generating capacity that can be activated regardless of wind speeds, cloud cover or other weather conditions, according to Anderson’s research.
How much is that? It’s roughly equal to the total capacity of all of New York’s current power plants – nuclear, natural gas, hydro, wind, all of it.”
The enormous needs for back-up to wind and solar have been noted elsewhere, and completely ignored by those promoting Net Zero. See links under Energy Issues – US.
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Bomb Cyclone: A rapid intensification of a cyclone is often referred to by colorful weather commentators as a bomb cyclone. The implication is that it is not predictable. In WUWT, Caribbean sailor Kip Hansen showed a video of a cyclone off the Northwest Coast of the US, and he considered it to be a bomb cyclone. Meteorologist Cliff Mass, in the Northwest, has a daily series on his blog showing that the cyclone was well predicted over five days. See links under Changing Weather.
*************
Number of the Week: 14 Drilling Records. The paper authored by Thomas Westerhold and 23 others “An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years” in AAAS Science on Sep 11, 2020, was based on 14 drilling records compiled in the International Ocean Discovery Program and its predecessor programs. As discussed in the July 15, 2023, TWTW, when Willis Eschenbach unraveled the data, it revealed that contrary to the assertion that Earth’s temperatures changed with changing CO2; Earth’s temperatures remained roughly constant with significant changes in CO2. See https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aba6853 for the paper and https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%207-15-23.pdf for the TWTW.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
“Misinformation” Means “Shut Up”
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Nov 21, 2024
Link to: Misinformation Is a Word We Use to Shut You Up
By Daniel Klein, Brownstone Institute, May 31, 2023
From Klein: What is being labeled and attacked as “misinformation” is not a matter of true or false information, but of true or false knowledge—meaning that disagreement more commonly arises over interpretations and judgments as to which interpretations to take stock in or believe. We make judgments, “good” and “bad,” “wise” and “foolish,” about interpretations, “true” and “false.”
One day to make submissions about the Under-16 social media ban (excuse to force Digital ID on us!)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 22, 2024
They’re Trying to Silence Us: The G20’s War on Climate Skepticism
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 22, 2024
Link to: Brazil leads new international effort against climate lies
At the G20 summit in Brazil, governments are banding together to stop the spread of disinformation on climate change.
Brazil and the United Nations launched a new international effort to combat disinformation on climate change. They announced the Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change during the G20 Leaders’ Summit taking place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
“Countries cannot tackle this problem individually,” President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said in a press release.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
German Researcher: Doubling Of Atmospheric CO2 Causes Only 0.24°C Of Warming …Practically Insignificant
By P Gosselin, Net Zero Watch, Nov 19, 2024
Link to paper: Carbon dioxide and global warming
By Franz-Karl Reinhart, Carnot-Cournot Network, Sep 12, 2017
From Gosselin: German researcher concludes CO2 warming immensely exaggerated…. IR radiation of clouds considerably reduces the greenhouse effect of CO2.”
In total, around 200,000 frequency lines had to be taken into account in the relevant spectral range of 2.9 to 29 µm. Dr. Reinhart relied on the HITRAN program) for this analysis. This scientific software package offers the researcher comprehensive calculation tools, including the necessary databases. It calculates radiation reactions and radiation transport processes in all possible gases and gas mixtures according to the latest scientific and technical standards. Changes in atmospheric composition and density as well as their evolution with increasing altitude can be taken into account. HITRAN is used by scientists as well as satellite operators, meteorologists and the military due to the quality of its results.
[SEPP Comment: HITRAN is the best database publicly available, but the precise number CO2 causing a warming of only 0.24°C is not clear.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Global Temperature Report: October 2024 with Version 6.1
By John Christy, Roy Spencer, Nov 4, 20224
Link to: UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for October 2024: +0.73 deg. C After Truncation of the NOAA-19 Satellite Record
How Can We ‘Trust The Science’ When We Can’t Trust The Data?
By I & I Editorial Board, Nov 14, 2024
Given that it’s all based on somewhat spurious readings of temperature data both past and present, the trillions of dollars spent doesn’t seem like a prudent investment. No, it looks more like the biggest gamble ever. Do you “trust the science?”
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Climate Change, Floods, and Human Health
By Yao Wu, et al., The New England Journal of Medicine, Nov 20, 2024
Projections based on a scenario of high greenhouse-gas emissions indicate that flood frequency will increase in 42% of worldwide land-grid cells during 2071–2100 (from 1971–2000 levels), including Southeast Asia, peninsular India, eastern Africa, and the northern half of the Andes (in South America).
Redefining net zero will not stop global warming
Press Release, University of Oxford, Nov 18, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
[SEPP Comment: Typical net zero thinking: Enshrine the Paris Agreement and ignore the costs and the fact that China and the BRICS countries don’t care.]
Climate change strengthened hurricanes by 18 miles per hour: Study
From: Using observations, climate models, and potential intensity theory, this study introduces a novel rapid attribution framework that quantifies the impact of historically warming North Atlantic SSTs on observed hurricane maximum wind speeds. The attribution framework employs a storyline attribution approach exploring a comprehensive set of counterfactuals scenarios—estimates characterizing historical SST shifts due to human-caused climate change—and considering atmospheric variability.
[SEPP Comment: The study assumes that increase in sea surface temperatures are caused by humans (CO2).]
Admission of Gavin
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024
[SEPP Comment: We need more money to prove the science is settled.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Confessing to the Error of Biden’s Ways
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Nov 21, 2024
[SEPP Comment: An interesting way to possibly renounce new regulations under the Biden administration.]
Climate scientists officially declare ‘climate emergency’ at an end
Press release by the Climate Intelligence Group (CLINTEL), Via WUWT, Nov 19, 2024
Is deadly weather being ‘supercharged’?
By Ross Clark, The Spectator, Nov 18, 2024 [H/t Paul Homewood]
From Carbon Brief: The scientists worked out that human influence had at least doubled the risk of such an extreme heatwave occurring. The findings made headlines around the world.
The study kick-started the scientific field of “extreme event attribution”.
[SEPP Comment: Additional false claims of probabilities are exposed by Clark.]
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024
Politicians start with a dream, and when it goes sour, they too often refuse to admit it and instead prop it up. But the cost to the rest of us, including the poor to whom this money does not go directly from their fellows in charity or via the state, and the middle class whose power bills keep skyrocketing because politicians don’t know what “cheap” even means, is enormous. And how much are politicians’ delusions really worth anyway?
We’re all Doomed. Yawn
By Michael Kile, WUWT, Nov 21, 2024
Such a view arguably becomes more credible on discovering that WWA’s main benefactor is The Grantham Institute. It sits “at the heart of Imperial College London’s work on climate change and the environment, with the mission: “to lead on world-class research, policy, training and innovation that supports effective action on climate change.” [Italics by Kile]
Grantham is right. Climate change has become a global “business”, presumably very profitable for “carbon” cowboys or green investors like GMO, at least unless the RE music stops for some reason, such as a decline in public gullibility about the “climate crisis”.
Climate Debate on Social Media: Are the ‘Skeptics’ Winning?
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 22, 2024
After Paris!
Green Activists Are Coming for Your Money
By Paul Mueller, The Daily Economy, Nov 18, 2024
Cheap energy means a future of greater freedom and prosperity for everyone.
Because eliminating all emissions is next to impossible, companies are being encouraged (or required) to buy offsets from other companies or countries that purport to pull a certain amount of carbon out of the air. There are many reasons to be skeptical of this whole project. The efficacy of carbon offsets is highly questionable because they create all kinds of bad incentives.
The injustice of climate reparations
COP 29 leaders are demanding over a $1 trillion a year in climate reparations from the US and other successful nations. They don’t deserve a nickel.
While addressing the conference, Gore claimed that predictions by climate scientists had been proven to be “dead right.”
“Do we listen to the polluters, who don’t want to do anything meaningful that might reduce fossil fuels, or do we listen to the scientists who have been telling us what we need to do?”
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Tailpipes and Chimneys Greening Gardens and Forests
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Nov 19, 2024
Effect of CO2 on photosynthesis of garden beans
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024
From the CO2Science Archive:
Green Blackout Part I: The SPMs
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024
So, if you are talking to someone about climate change and they have dutifully read all the SPMs of all the Working Groups of the past two IPCC Assessment Reports, don’t expect them to know anything about global greening.
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Club of Rome: COP29 “No longer fit for purpose”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 17, 2024
You would think after an intellectual blunder like “The Limits to Growth” that they would have changed their name or something, but every so often The Club of Rome still pops their head above the parapet to deliver a doom-laden pronouncement or scold the world for not being run the way they would like it to be run.
[SEPP Comment: The signers include Ban Ki-moon, former Secretary-General of the United Nations; and Christiana Figueres, Former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The UN is clearly a political organization not an impartial one.]
POLITICO: Argentina mulls UN Paris climate agreement exit with Trump – ‘Both countries explore leaving the landmark 2015 accord’
[SEPP Comment: It is not change in GDP, alone, that is most important; most important is change in economic productivity, which is often delayed.]
“There Is a Design Problem In Climate Policy” Featuring Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. & Chris Wright, Liberty
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 20, 2024
Video and Partial Text
Measurement Issues — Surface
The Misunderstanding of Drought
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Nov 20, 2024
The US Drought Monitor drought index is a very subjective metric of drought – and mostly means “less rain over the period [week, month, year] than average”. What it does not mean is that local water companies have to start restricting water use or call for voluntary water usage.
While researching for this essay, I came across this statement at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA]:
“When you use these water–saving products in your home or business, you can expect exceptional performance, savings on your water bills, and assurance that you are saving water for future generations.” [Boldface by Hansen]
Changing Weather
The UK’s Weather in 2023
By Paul Homewood, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Nov 18, 2024
Wind Speeds Dropping, Rainfall Similar to a Century Ago – the Climate News You Won’t Hear in the Mainstream
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Nov 21, 2024
Changing Seas
Reflections on Claims about Coral Cover (Part 1)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Nov 19, 2024
[SEPP Comment: How does The Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) explain that corals survived the Younger Dryas.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
‘Global’ Warming? Little Ice Age Cooling And Sea Ice Expansion Is Still Ongoing Across Antarctica Today
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 22, 2024
Link to paper: Holocene paleoceanographic variability in Robertson Bay, Ross Sea, Antarctica: A marine record of ocean, ice sheet, and climate connectivity
By Olivia J. Truax, et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, May 15, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Groundwater overdraft is a widespread problem in the US. In coastal areas it can be solved with de-salination of seawater. In inland areas the approach should be tailored for the particular region.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Science notes in passing
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024
Paul Homewood (h/t Not A Lot of People Know That) points to detailed computational work done by a team of physicists from the Netherlands, US and Canada which confirms that, while a molecule of N2O has 230 times more radiative forcing strength than a molecule of CO2, it’s only because there’s so much more CO2 in the atmosphere and its effect is heavily saturated.
[SEPP Comment: Also, the calculations were done without including the influence of water vapor.]
Lowering Standards
Millions of Pounds of Cold Weather Benefits Could be Lost Due to Unreliable Met Office Data
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Nov 18, 2024
To date, the obvious problems surrounding the Met Office’s temperature measuring abilities have been ignored. To discuss the matter risks opening a pandora’s box since it would subject data that backs Net Zero to greater scrutiny. It will be interesting to see if this position holds following suggestions that its figures could be depriving poor and vulnerable members of society from collecting much needed cold weather payments.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
NEWSPEAK: ‘Sacrifice’ Now Means ‘Enjoy,’ ‘Ban’ Now Means ‘Upgrade,’ According to Lib Climate Group.
Editorial, The National Pulse, Nov 22, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Climate change goosed hurricane wind strength by 18 mph since 2019, study says
By Seth Borenstein, AP, Nov 20, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“We had two Category Five storms here in 2024,” Gifford (of climate central) said. “Our analysis shows that we would have had zero Category Five storms without human-caused climate change.”
[SEPP Comment: The two Category 5 storms in 2024 were Milton and Beryl. Milton was a Category 3 storm when it made landfall on Oct 9; Beryl was a category 2 storm when it made landfall in the Yucatan on July 5, and a category 1 storm when it made landfall in Texas on July 8. In the 1930s six Category 5 storms where recorded including the 1933 storm that hit Florida and Texas, the 1935 storm that that hit Florida and went up East Coast to Virginia, and the 1938 New England storm that went to Quebec Provence. Where these storms “goosed” by human caused climate change? The issue for comparing current storms with historical storms is: What category are they when the make landfall?]
Ignore Elections, Say CCN
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 22, 2024
[SEPP Comment: “Organized by journalists for journalists, Covering Climate Now works to improve climate coverage worldwide.” https://coveringclimatenow.org/about/]
No, Atlanta News First, Climate Change is Not Threatening the “Way of Life” of Georgia Farmers
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Nov 22, 2024
A thorough analysis of regional climate data and agricultural outcomes in Georgia reveals that there is no evidence climate change is altering weather patterns in Georgia for the worse or harming the state’s agriculture sector. The Southeastern United States has experienced a modest cooling trend in recent decades and Georgia’s peach industry, contrary to the impression given in the ANF article, achieved record yields in 2024. These facts underscore the bogus nature of ANF’s article.
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
No, Hurricanes Helene and Milton Were Not “Supercharged” by Climate Change
By Chris Martz, His Blog, Nov 3, 2024
We may live in the 21st century, but when it comes to the weather, the human mind has not evolved past Dark Age superstition.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
The Math Behind New York City’s Local Law 97 Does Not Add Up
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Nov 18, 2024
For those of us who have been analyzing this and understand the numbers, it has been apparent for years that all the policies, both in LL97 and the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act were fabrications. These numbers just prove it.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Kids Get Enough Climate Propaganda Already, News4Jax, They Don’t Need More
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Nov 15, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Surfboards and Science: Why a 17-Year-Old’s Ocean ‘Thermometer’ Won’t Save the Planet
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 19, 2024
“’As a surfer, I’m constantly on the ocean, and I actually felt the oceans warming,’ says Catarina Lorenzo, 17, a professional surfer from Salvador, in Bahia state in Brazil.”
[SEPP Comment: Did the 17-year-old “professional surfer” take her personal thermometer to the deep abyss? Why believe delegates at COP 29 who listen to such children?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
West Midlands town in uproar over ‘noisy’ £2.5m heat pump
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 19, 2024
Questioning European Green
European oil giants step back from renewables path
By Ron Bousso, Reuters, Nov 18, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Why Ed Miliband’s net zero dream is doomed to failure
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 17, 2024
Deutschland, Deutschland under Wasser
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024
Now suppose you’re Burkina Faso with 22 million people, 114th in global GDP and 171st if you’re measuring it per capita, and some high-falutin’ Western idealist or politician breezes in and says forget that silly old oil, gas and coal. You should power your economy the way Germany does. That way you can have a crumbling industrial base, collapsing national finances and political chaos.
So ja, there is a green transition. Straight down.
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The so-called ‘green movement’ increases the world’s demand for crude oil
By Ronald Stein, America Outloud, Nov 18, 2024
Green Jobs
Ford to cut 800 UK jobs as electric car sales flag
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 21, 2024
The Political Games Continue
Labour is facing a civil war over net zero [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 20, 2024
Litigation Issues
As predicted, climate lawsuits begin targeting utilities and manufacturers, along with ‘Big Oil’
Should the lawsuits be successful, the cost of the awards or settlements will be passed onto ratepayers and consumers.
A Virginia [Floyd County Circuit] court ruled Wednesday that Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) administration cannot withdraw from an interstate carbon emission-capping compact without approval from the state Legislature.
[SEPP Comment: The population of Floyd County is about 15,000. A nonprofit victory?]
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative is Back, Prepare to Pay
By Steve Haner, WUWT, Nov 21, 2024
During the three years Virginia was part of the multi-state cap and tax compact, Virginia collected $828 million from electric power producers seeking permits to emit CO2. The largest of the payers in the state, Dominion Energy Virginia, simply passed its cost along to consumers dollar for dollar right on monthly bills.
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
New Wind Farm Subsidies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 18, 2024
At current prices, the latest CfD strike prices for offshore wind stand at around £82/MWh. This new bonus will add about £8/MWh to this.
[SEPP Comment: This brings the CfD (Contract for Difference) for offshore wind to £90/MWh or about $112.50/MWh. In the US, the average price of wholesale electricity was about $36/MWh in 2023.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Biden proposes to restrict pollution from new gas plants
Link to Agency for Toxic Subsidies and Disease Registry (ATSDR): Nitrogen Oxides
Fact Sheet, Division of Toxicology, US Department of Health and Human Services, April 2002
From article: The Biden administration has proposed a rule that it says will reduce pollution stemming from new gas-fired power plants and other industrial facilities.
The proposal would require these plants to cut their emissions of pollutants known as nitrogen oxides, which can lead to smog formation and contribute to asthma in people with long-term exposure.
From ATSDR sheet: HIGHLIGHTS: Everybody is exposed to small amounts of nitrogen oxides in ambient air. Higher exposure may occur by burning wood or kerosene or near gas stoves or if you smoke. Exposure to high levels of nitrogen oxides can damage the respiratory airways. Contact with the skin or eyes can cause burns. Nitrogen dioxide and nitric oxide have been found in at least 9 and 6 of the 1,585 National Priorities List sites identified by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), respectively.
What are nitrogen oxides?
Nitrogen oxides are a mixture of gases that are composed of nitrogen and oxygen. Two of the most toxicologically significant nitrogen oxides are nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide; both are nonflammable and colorless to brown at room temperature. Nitric oxide is a sharp sweet-smelling gas at room temperature, whereas nitrogen dioxide has a strong, harsh odor and is a liquid at room temperature, becoming a reddish-brown gas above 70 °F.
Nitrogen oxides do not build up in the food chain. [Boldface added]
How can nitrogen oxides affect my health?
Low levels of nitrogen oxides in the air can irritate your eyes, nose, throat, and lungs, possibly causing you to cough and experience shortness of breath, tiredness, and nausea.
[SEPP Comment: A new tactic by EPA for controlling gas power plants by using a fear justified by coal fired power plants without scrubbers. This was triggered by a friendly settlement between EPA and environmental groups. The affected parties such as power plants and consumers who pay the costs were not invited.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
“Hygiene Poverty”: The Brutal Reality of Life in Net Zero Britain
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 16, 2024
[SEPP Comment: If the report from Sky News is accurate, it is really sad.]
Rota Load Disconnections- aka Power Cuts–Coming To Your Street
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 17, 2024
They’re preparing for the inevitable blackouts:
Ed Miliband’s new heat pump plan could tip us into civil unrest [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 22, 2024
Alberta: CO2 is Positive!
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 20, 2024
Energy Issues – Australia
Blockbuster: Labor’s weather control “renewables plan” turns out to be half a trillion more than expected
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 19, 2024
The Minister for Energy says the cost of renewables by 2050 will be $122 billion (AUD). Not convinced, the Opposition commissioned a study that estimates it’s more like $650 billion. But what’s a half a trillion dollars when you have hope, faith, and a fantasy to make storms a bit nicer?
BIG News — The Climate Blob finally goes Nuclear “to save the world”: US and UK offer nuclear secrets (and Australia says NO)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 20, 2024
Energy Issues — US
‘Energy-Limited Resources’: Huge Swaths Of America Face Blackout Risks If Winter Is Bitter, Grid Watchdog Warns
Today, utility companies are sending lobbyists to conservative policymakers in order to convince them that the utilities have our best interests in mind. Their track record tells another story. Meanwhile, Americans have less reliable electricity at higher costs.
[SEPP Comment: Utility companies increase profits based on allowable investments. If wind and solar are allowable investments, profits increase. The consumers need for affordable, reliable electricity is ignored.]
Lighting Up America: Why Chris Wright Should Be Welcomed, Not Spurned
By Kevin Dayaratna , Roy Spencer, Real Clear Energy, Nov 20, 2024
But Mr. Wright’s qualifications have become obscured by the media focus on his views on climate change. For example, the Washington Post derides Mr. Wright as a “skeptic of mainstream climate science.”
[SEPP Comment: Nature is a skeptic of Washington Post’s mainstream climate science.]
Energy Realism from Next US Dept. Head
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Nov 19, 2024
Energy Realism and Climate Pragmatism at the Department of Energy
By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Via AEI, Nov 19, 2024
Link to: Bettering Human Lives
By Liberty Energy, 2024
Chris Wright, An Unapologetic Energy Humanist, Will Be The Next Secretary Of Energy
For the first time, the DOE will be led by someone from the energy sector.
Quotes Wright: “I’m so optimistic positive change can happen… we’re driving the price of energy needlessly up, we’re destabilizing our electricity grid needlessly. These are huge problems. But ultimately, they will be reversed when political aspirations collapse, [when they] collide with physics, physics wins every time and will again here.”
A Look At President-Elect Trump’s Picks For The Key Energy Policy Positions
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 21, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Also “all of the above” strategy could mean no special tax breaks for all, just ordinary business deductions for wearing down assets? If an energy scheme works, fine; if it does not work, no special tax breaks to try to make it work.]
Coal is a critical resource that plays a vital role in ensuring affordable and reliable energy access in the U.S. The dismissal of this resource by the Obama and Biden administrations has been a tragedy, driven by greed and naivete under the guise of health and well-being concerns.
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Phillips 66 charged with dumping oil into Los Angeles wastewater
For the climate movement to embrace nuclear power would entail rejecting the antinuclear stance of its parent, the environmental movement. Starting in the 1970’s and continuing to the present day, nuclear power has been a chief concern of the environmental movement.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Promoting Solar Is Crucial to Preserving American Farmland and Rural Communities
[SEPP Comment: Covering farmland with solar panels protects farmland?]
UK Approves $2.5 Billion Funding for Power Link to North Sea Wind Farms
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 16, 2024
Forget the nonsense about “volatile gas markets”. Gas prices sometimes go up, and sometimes they go down. But apart from a few months in 2022, gas fired power has been consistently cheaper than wind.
In other words, we are going to have £20 billion added to our energy bills, in order to transmit expensive wind power!
Inaudible Infrasound from Wind Turbines Disturbs Health of Humans and All Organisms
By Tracy Beanz & Michelle Edwards, The HighWire, Nov 19, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Wind Turbine Foundations
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 20, 2024
Video: Ever wondered what goes into the foundations of a wind turbine?
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Major geothermal bills pass House, widening path for clean energy drilling boom
Research from the Biden Department of Energy has found that $25 billion in near-term geothermal investment could start a rolling snowball of geothermal innovation that could ultimately power hundreds of millions of U.S. homes.
[SEPP Comment: Unable to locate the research supporting the above statement.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Jinzhai Pumped-Storage Hydro Facility Helps Integrate Renewable Energy and Solve Grid Stability Challenges
Pumped-storage hydropower is seen as a key technology in China to balance the grid and store excess energy from intermittent sources like wind and solar. The 1.2-GW Jinzhai pumped-storage project is a model for the industry and winner of a 2024 POWER Top Plant award.
[SEPP Comment: The article fails to discuss the key issue: How is timely replenishment of upper reservoir water accomplished that is needed for pumped-storage hydro?]
The Home-Based Battery Storage Fantasy
By Jonathan Lesser, Real Clear Energy, Nov 21, 2024
On one side, the incoming Trump administration will pursue deregulation that may help businesses remain in California, and on the other side, the Newsom administration is going to do everything in its power to stop them. For many businesses in California, successfully balancing these powerful competing forces is a matter of survival.
Health, Energy, and Climate
Water, Water Everywhere in NC … But Not a Drop to Drink
America now ranks second to last in the time it takes to develop a new mine — roughly 29 years. Only Zambia is worse.
Good thing we have all the money
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 20, 2024
But they’re [Charities promoting climate alarmism] using their resources to make life more expensive not more affordable, a strange form of charity especially when food banks in Canada just had over two million visits in a single month. But it seems no poor people need to apply. Who knows that sort anyway?
Other Scientific News
Scientists identify previously unknown compound in drinking water
From abstract: Analysis of chloraminated US drinking waters found Cl–N–NO2− in all samples tested (n = 40), with a median concentration of 23 micrograms per liter and first and third quartiles of 1.3 and 92 micrograms per liter, respectively. Cl–N–NO2− warrants occurrence and toxicity studies in chloraminated water systems that serve more than 113 million people in the US alone.
From article: Lead author Julian Fairey, an associate professor of civil engineering at the University of Arkansas, stressed in a statement that even if the new compound is not toxic, there is much knowledge to gain from their study and future related research.
[SEPP Comment: The chemicals are used to protect people from diseases like typhoid and cholera. Is the decomposed product toxic? At what concentrations?]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 21, 2024
[SEPP Comment: A communications cable near two pipelines.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Claim: The Energy Transition will only cost $3-12 Trillion per Year
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 21, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Spend the money building starships instead?]
David Viner Day
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 19, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The first heavy snowfall in the UK, named after the climate scientist who claimed in 2000: “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”]
New BBC Climate Expert
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 19, 2024
Put cigarette-style warnings on bacon, says Dale Vince
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 19, 2024
This is what you get when you send tens of millions in wind subsidies to some overgrown child.
The End Of Polar Bears
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 20, 2024
ARTICLES
1. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy: The DOGE Plan to Reform Government
Following the Supreme Court’s guidance, we’ll reverse a decadeslong executive power grab.
By Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, WSJ, Nov 20, 2024
“Our nation was founded on the basic idea that the people we elect run the government. That isn’t how America functions today. Most legal edicts aren’t laws enacted by Congress, but ‘rules and regulations’ promulgated by unelected bureaucrats—tens of thousands of them each year. Most government enforcement decisions and discretionary expenditures aren’t made by the democratically elected president or even his political appointees but by millions of unelected, unappointed civil servants within government agencies who view themselves as immune from firing thanks to civil-service protections.
This is antidemocratic and antithetical to the Founders’ vision. It imposes massive direct and indirect costs on taxpayers. Thankfully, we have a historic opportunity to solve the problem. On Nov. 5, voters decisively elected Donald Trump with a mandate for sweeping change, and they deserve to get it.
President Trump has asked the two of us to lead a newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to cut the federal government down to size. The entrenched and ever-growing bureaucracy represents an existential threat to our republic, and politicians have abetted it for too long. That’s why we’re doing things differently. We are entrepreneurs, not politicians. We will serve as outside volunteers, not federal officials or employees. Unlike government commissions or advisory committees, we won’t just write reports or cut ribbons. We’ll cut costs.
We are assisting the Trump transition team to identify and hire a lean team of small-government crusaders, including some of the sharpest technical and legal minds in America. This team will work in the new administration closely with the White House Office of Management and Budget. The two of us will advise DOGE at every step to pursue three major kinds of reform: regulatory rescissions, administrative reductions and cost savings. We will focus particularly on driving change through executive action based on existing legislation rather than by passing new laws. Our North Star for reform will be the U.S. Constitution, with a focus on two critical Supreme Court rulings issued during President Biden’s tenure.
In West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency (2022), the justices held that agencies can’t impose regulations dealing with major economic or policy questions unless Congress specifically authorizes them to do so. In Loper Bright v. Raimondo (2024), the court overturned the Chevron doctrine and held that federal courts should no longer defer to federal agencies’ interpretations of the law or their own rulemaking authority. Together, these cases suggest that a plethora of current federal regulations exceed the authority Congress has granted under the law.
DOGE will work with legal experts embedded in government agencies, aided by advanced technology, to apply these rulings to federal regulations enacted by such agencies. DOGE will present this list of regulations to President Trump, who can, by executive action, immediately pause the enforcement of those regulations and initiate the process for review and rescission. This would liberate individuals and businesses from illicit regulations never passed by Congress and stimulate the U.S. economy.
When the president nullifies thousands of such regulations, critics will allege executive overreach. In fact, it will be correcting the executive overreach of thousands of regulations promulgated by administrative fiat that were never authorized by Congress. The president owes lawmaking deference to Congress, not to bureaucrats deep within federal agencies. The use of executive orders to substitute for lawmaking by adding burdensome new rules is a constitutional affront, but the use of executive orders to roll back regulations that wrongly bypassed Congress is legitimate and necessary to comply with the Supreme Court’s recent mandates. And after those regulations are fully rescinded, a future president couldn’t simply flip the switch and revive them but would instead have to ask Congress to do so.
A drastic reduction in federal regulations provides sound industrial logic for mass head-count reductions across the federal bureaucracy. DOGE intends to work with embedded appointees in agencies to identify the minimum number of employees required at an agency for it to perform its constitutionally permissible and statutorily mandated functions. The number of federal employees to cut should be at least proportionate to the number of federal regulations that are nullified: Not only are fewer employees required to enforce fewer regulations, but the agency would produce fewer regulations once its scope of authority is properly limited. Employees whose positions are eliminated deserve to be treated with respect, and DOGE’s goal is to help support their transition into the private sector. The president can use existing laws to give them incentives for early retirement and to make voluntary severance payments to facilitate a graceful exit.
Conventional wisdom holds that statutory civil-service protections stop the president or even his political appointees from firing federal workers. The purpose of these protections is to protect employees from political retaliation. But the statute allows for ‘reductions in force’ that don’t target specific employees. The statute further empowers the president to ‘prescribe rules governing the competitive service.’ That power is broad. Previous presidents have used it to amend the civil service rules by executive order, and the Supreme Court has held—in Franklin v. Massachusetts (1992) and Collins v. Yellen (2021) that they weren’t constrained by the Administrative Procedures Act when they did so. With this authority, Mr. Trump can implement any number of ‘rules governing the competitive service’ that would curtail administrative overgrowth, from large-scale firings to relocation of federal agencies out of the Washington area. Requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome: If federal employees don’t want to show up, American taxpayers shouldn’t pay them for the Covid-era privilege of staying home.
Finally, we are focused on delivering cost savings for taxpayers. Skeptics question how much federal spending DOGE can tame through executive action alone. They point to the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, which stops the president from ceasing expenditures authorized by Congress. Mr. Trump has previously suggested this statute is unconstitutional, and we believe the current Supreme Court would likely side with him on this question. But even without relying on that view, DOGE will help end federal overspending by taking aim at the $500 billion plus in annual federal expenditures that are unauthorized by Congress or being used in ways that Congress never intended, from $535 million a year to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and $1.5 billion for grants to international organizations to nearly $300 million to progressive groups like Planned Parenthood.
TWTW Comment: A promising start to a difficult task. Contrary to those who claim that in ending the Chevron Deference, judges will replace bureaucrats for expert judgement; it will be the lawmakers who will need to do so. That is where the Constitution places the authority and the requirement for such expertise. Congress will not be able to pass the buck on difficult decisions by deferring to bureaucrats.
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